Asymptotic normality of the estimated optimal order quantity for one-period inventories with supply uncertainty

A one-period inventory situation where the supply is an NBUE random variable with mean proportional to the quantity ordered has been considered. The optimal exponential order quantity, which maximizes the minimum profit obtainable in the NBUE class of supply distributions, is a function of the demand distribution function. Here we show that an estimator of the maximin order quantity, which is already known to converge almost surely to its true value, converges also in distribution to an appropriate normal law with increasing sample size.     

态势估计中一种基于贝叶斯估计的统计时间推理方法

统计时间推理是态势估计中的一个重要组成部分。Ｋｉｒｉｌｏｖ的基于极大似然估计（Ｍａｘｉ－ｍｕｍＬｉｋｅｌｉｈｏｏｄＥｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎ,ＭＬＥ）的推理方法将未知时间变量看作常数,估计方差较大。文中建立的已知时间信息和未知时间变量之间的关系模型,将未知时间变量扩展为随机变量,将贝叶斯估计（ＢａｙｅｓＥｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎ,ＢＥ）引入时间推理。经过对两种推理算法的性能进行分析和比较,发现在一定范围内,基于ＢＥ的方法性能优于基于ＭＬＥ的方法。     

态势估计中一种基于最大后验概率估计的时间推理方法

态势估计中统计时间推理在许多应用中非常重要。Ｋｉｒｉｌｏｖ的基于极大似然估计（ＭａｘｉｍｕｍＬｉｋｅｌｉｈｏｏｄＥｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎ，ＭＬＥ）的推理方法将未知时间变量看作常数，忽略了它的先验信息，估计方差较大。针对这一问题，本文首先建立了已知时间信息和未知时间变量之间的关系模型，这一模型可用来解释Ｋｉｒｉｌｏｖ的方法；然后在这一模型下，将未知时间变量扩展为随机变量，采用基于最大后验概率估计（ＭａｘｉｍｕｍａＰｏｓ－ｔｅｒｉｏｒｉＥｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎ，ＭＡＰ）的方法进行统计时间推理。对两种推理算法的性能进行了分析和比较，发现在较宽的范围内，基于ＭＡＰ的方法性能优于基于ＭＬＥ的方法。     

Chains,networks and shifting paradigms: the UK defence industry supply system

Industrial supply chains have emerged as the focus of much economic and business research over the previous decade and defence is no exception. This paper reviews contributions made to the body of knowledge in this field with particular attention given to primary research undertaken on the UK defence industrial supply system. In doing so, the author assesses the quantity and quality of knowledge available to researchers, analysts and policy makers. There have been a number of valuable contributions to the literature and this paper reveals a subject that is extremely complicated, dynamic and yet under‐researched. It is suggested that it may well be this complexity and dynamism, coupled with difficulty in accessing data, that has inhibited research development in this field. Defence industry supply systems are repeatedly referred to as ‘chains’; however, primary research consistently suggests this is a misnomer – the author concludes that future analysis of the UK defence sector must embrace directly the economics of networks if understanding of the same is to progress and industrial ‘invisibility’ is to be avoided.     

Algorithms and heuristics for variable-yield lot sizing

We consider the multiperiod lot-sizing problem in which the production yield (the proportion of usable goods) is variable according to a known probability distribution. We review two economic order quantity (EOQ) models for the stationary demand continuous-time problem and derive an EOQ model when the production yield follows a binomial distribution and backlogging of demand is permitted. A dynamic programming algorithm for an arbitrary sequence of demand requirements is presented. Heuristics based on both the EOQ model and appropriate modification of the underlying perfect-yield lot-sizing policies are discussed, and extensive computational evaluation of these heuristics is presented. Two of these heuristics are then modified to include the notion of supply safety stock. The modified heuristics consistently produce near-optimal lot-sizing policies for problems with stationary and time-varying demands.     

基音检测的一种时域方法

提出基音检测的一种新的时域方法,直接利用波形的形状特征,进行波形之间的匹配估计,从而提取出一帧语音信号的平均基音周期。实验证明该方法运算量小、准确率高,能满足实时处理的需要。     

高层建筑灭火救援供水方式实际应用分析

高层建筑火场供水问题是灭火救援能否取得成功的关键,对其供水方式进行研究具有重要意义和紧迫性.按“固、内、外”三个类别,从固定设施、移动装备、现场环境和人员等方面,就现有高层建筑常用供水方式的优缺点进行论述,并结合供水方式的优缺点,就供水车数量确定、水带铺设方式、移动供水装备选用、熟悉演练等方面提出建议,以期提高高层建筑供水水平.     

When to commit in a serial supply chain with forecast updating

Negotiations between an end product manufacturer and a parts supplier often revolve around two main issues: the supplier's price and the length of time the manufacturer is contractually held to its order quantity, commonly termed the “commitment time frame.” Because actual demand is unknown, the specification of the commitment time frame determines how the demand risk is shared among the members of the supply chain. Casual observation indicates that most manufacturers prefer to delay commitments as long as possible while suppliers prefer early commitments. In this paper, we investigate whether these goals are always in the firm's best interest. In particular, we find that the manufacturer may sometimes be better off with a contract that requires an early commitment to its order quantity, before the supplier commits resources and the supplier may sometimes be better off with a delayed commitment. We also find that the preferred commitment time frame depends upon which member of the supply chain has the power to set their exchange price. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

Multiechelon inventory systems with lateral supply

We develop approximations to estimate the expected backorders in a multiechelon system in which lateral supply actions between bases are allowed when a backorder occurs. These approximations are easy to compute, and the average absolute error over a wide range of parameter values is less than 4% when items are depot repairable, even when bases are dissimilar. With lateral supply, backorder reductions of 30-50% are not uncommon, and a 72% reduction was observed in two cases. Lateral supply becomes more important with low demand rates. A similar approach was unsuccessful for base-repairable items. However, lateral supply has a beneficial effect only when the lateral supply time is very short, 1/4 or less of the average base repair time. Even in such cases lateral supply is unlikely to be important in an actual application, because base management can expedite repair of critical items.     

Transportation type problems with quantity discounts

It is known to be real that the per unit transportation cost from a specific supply source to a given demand sink is dependent on the quantity shipped, so that there exist finite intervals for quantities where price breaks are offered to customers. Thus, such a quantity discount results in a nonconvex, piecewise linear functional. In this paper, an algorithm is provided to solve this problem. This algorithm, with minor modifications, is shown to encompass the “incremental” quantity discount and the “fixed charge” transportation problems as well. It is based upon a branch-and-bound solution procedure. The branches lead to ordinary transportation problems, the results of which are obtained by utilizing the “cost operator” for one branch and “rim operator” for another branch. Suitable illustrations and extensions are also provided.     

Solving incremental quantity discounted transportation problems by vertex ranking

Logistics managers often encounter incremental quantity discounts when choosing the best transportation mode to use. This could occur when there is a choice of road, rail, or water modes to move freight from a set of supply points to various destinations. The selection of mode depends upon the amount to be moved and the costs, both continuous and fixed, associated with each mode. This can be modeled as a transportation problem with a piecewise-linear objective function. In this paper, we present a vertex ranking algorithm to solve the incremental quantity discounted transportation problem. Computational results for various test problems are presented and discussed.     

用阳线磨损量表征火炮初速减退量

用药室增长量预估线膛火炮初速下降量精度很低,根据火炮身管烧蚀磨损特点,本文提出了用身管严重磨损段阳线磨损量表征火炮初速减退量,在130mm加农炮上所做试验表明,用该方法可提高大口径火炮初速下降量的预估精度。     

To wait or not to wait: Optimal ordering under lead time uncertainty and forecast updating

There has been a dramatic increase over the past decade in the number of firms that source finished product from overseas. Although this has reduced procurement costs, it has increased supply risk; procurement lead times are longer and are often unreliable. In deciding when and how much to order, firms must consider the lead time risk and the demand risk, i.e., the accuracy of their demand forecast. To improve the accuracy of its demand forecast, a firm may update its forecast as the selling season approaches. In this article we consider both forecast updating and lead time uncertainty. We characterize the firm's optimal procurement policy, and we prove that, with multiplicative forecast revisions, the firm's optimal procurement time is independent of the demand forecast evolution but that the optimal procurement quantity is not. This leads to a number of important managerial insights into the firm's planning process. We show that the firm becomes less sensitive to lead time variability as the forecast updating process becomes more efficient. Interestingly, a forecast‐updating firm might procure earlier than a firm with no forecast updating. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

关于内燃机原理若干问题的分析

本文分析了柴油机的最大扭矩、扭矩储备系数、喷油系统喷油量与柱塞几何供油量的差异和变化规律,认为这3个参数的现行定义不尽合理,并给出了新的定义。     

Determination of suppliers' optimal quantity discount schedules with heterogeneous buyers

Although the quantity discount problem has been extensively studied in the realm of a single supplier and a single buyer, it is not well understood when a supplier has many different buyers. This paper presents an analysis of a supplier's quantity discount decision when there are many buyers with different demand and cost structures. A common discrete all‐unit quantity discount schedule with many break points is used. After formulating the model, we first analyze buyers' responses to a general discrete quantity discount schedule. This analysis establishes a framework for a supplier to formulate his quantity discount decision. Under this framework, the supplier's optimal quantity discount schedule can be formulated and solved by a simple non‐linear programming model. The applicability of the model is discussed with an application for a large U.S. distribution network. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 49: 46–59, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.1052     

战场物资快速运输的指挥控制

针对战场快速物资运输的指挥控制问题,提出一种基于线性规划的方法。根据供求双方物质的供应和需求总量、地理空间上的位置以及运输工具的运载能力等信息,制订一个满足供求双方物资总运载量,并以运送所有物资耗费时间为最小的优化目标,改进了传统运输问题模型。仿真分析表明,该方法为实现战场物资快速运输的指挥控制提供了有价值的参考。     

Least-absolute-deviations position finding

Position finding has historically been carried out by calculating the coordinates of the mean position via a least-squares procedure based on the distance of the position from several direction lines. It has been suggested that the least-squares procedure assigns too much weight to outliers among the set of direction lines, outliers which may actually be associated with objects other than the one being located. In this paper, a method of using least-absolute deviations, which yields a more outlier-resistant median estimate of the position instead of the least-squares mean estimate, is presented.     

Coordinating independent buyers with integer‐ratio time coordination and quantity discounts

Supply chain members can gain substantial benefits by coordinating their activities. However, a remaining challenge is to create useful coordination mechanisms when channel members are independent. This paper develops a coordination strategy with which a supplier uses quantity discounts to entice independent buyers to comply with an integer‐ratio time coordination scheme. The problem is analyzed as a Stackelberg game in which the supplier acts as the leader by announcing its coordination policy in advance and buyers act as followers by deciding their ordering decisions with this information. The strategy is compared to a coordination mechanism with quantity discounts and power‐of‐two time coordination. While both strategies are able to produce substantial benefits over simple quantity discounts, integer‐ratio time coordination provides a better coordination mechanism for a decentralized supply chain. It is shown that power‐of‐two time coordination may not be able to provide a stable equilibrium coordination strategy when buyers act independently and opportunistically. Furthermore, if this is not the case, integer‐ratio time coordination is at least equally effective. Unlike a centralized solution, under which the improvement by integer‐ratio over power‐of‐two time coordination is limited to 2% of optimality, system cost reduction from a decentralized coordination strategy could be much more significant. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Should firms conceal information when dealing with common suppliers?

A firm making quantity decision under uncertainty loses profit if its private information is leaked to competitors. Outsourcing increases this risk as a third party supplier may leak information for its own benefit. The firm may choose to conceal information from the competitors by entering in a confidentiality agreement with the supplier. This, however, diminishes the firm's ability to dampen competition by signaling a higher quantity commitment. We examine this trade‐off in a stylized supply chain in which two firms, endowed with private demand information, order sequentially from a common supplier, and engage in differentiated quantity competition. In our model, the supplier can set different wholesale prices for firms, and the second‐mover firm could be better informed. Contrary to what is expected, information concealment is not always beneficial to the first mover. We characterize conditions under which the first mover firm will not prefer concealing information. We show that this depends on the relative informativeness of the second mover and is moderated by competition intensity. We examine the supplier's incentive in participating in information concealment, and develop a contract that enables it for wider set of parameter values. We extend our analysis to examine firms' incentive to improve information. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 62:1–15, 2015     

The single period procurement problem where dedicated supplier capacity can be reserved

In this article we consider the single period procurement strategy for an item with uncertainty in its demand and uncertainty in the capacity of the supplier. Dedicated capacity can be ensured by paying a premium charge to the supplier. The other decision variable is the replenishment quantity to request. It turns out to be very easy to select the best value of this latter quantity. On the other hand, we are only able to characterize the general behavior of the expected profit as a function of the level of dedicated capacity. In general, there can be multiple local maxima as a function of the dedicated capacity. However, for the special, but important, case of normally distributed demand, normally distributed capacity and a linear cost for reserving capacity, an algorithm is developed for finding the best level of dedicated capacity. Some preliminary insights regarding the extension to multiple periods are presented. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.