基于多阶段博弈模拟的作战飞机零部件备用分析

从决策优化的角度出发,提出了一种利用多阶段博弈模拟来分析和解算作战飞机零部件备用的方法.该方法首先分析了多阶段博弈模拟在作战飞机零部件备用的应用,给出了最优化问题的总的目标函数一般形式.然后转换和简化所得到的最优化问题目标函数形式,从而有利于零部件备用的最优化解算.最后,给出了多阶段博弈模拟分析算法的主要步骤.仿真结果表明,这种方法解决了零部件使用模型问题求解的不精确的分析方法.将零部件使用周期作战飞机零部件备用看成一个整体来分析,符合未来网络中心战作战飞机零部件使用备份追求整体效能最大的思想.     

Optimal replacement policies with two or more loaded sliding standbys

This article defines optimal replacement policies for identical components performing different functions in a given system, when more than one spare part is available. The problem is first formulated for two components and any number of spare parts and the optimal replacement time y(x) at time x is found to have a certain form. Sufficient conditions are then provided for y(x) to be a constant y* for x > y*, and y(x) = x for x > y* (single-critical-number policy). Under the assumption that the optimal policies are of the single-critical-number type, the results are extended to the n-component case, and a theorem is provided that reduces the required number of critical numbers. Finally, the theory is applied to the case of the exponential and uniform failure laws, in which single-critical-number policies are optimal, and to another failure law in which they are not.     

基于战备完好率的军用飞机维修费用需求确定方法

军用飞机维修费用需求与战备完好率要求密切相关,为保持飞机一定的战备完好率水平,必须投入一定的维修费用。维修费用投入多,则维修设备齐全,维修人员维修能力高,维修备件充足,飞机故障修复时间短,战备完好率高;维修费用投入少,会造成维修设备短缺,设施破旧,维修人员培训不到位,维修备件供应不足等各种问题,直接影响战备完好率水平。     

The determination of optimal base-stock inventory policy when the costs of under- and oversupply are uncertain

This article considers the determination of the optimal base-stock inventory policy for the newsboy inventory model when there is uncertainty about either or both of its basic cost inputs: either C_u, the marginal cost of an undersupply mistake, or C_o, the marginal cost of an oversupply mistake. Such uncertainties often arise in implementing the newsboy model, especially with respect to C_u, whose value depends mostly on the often-imponderable economic consequences of a lost sale or backorder. Given this uncertainty, we use decision theory to propose and analyze two measures of policy “goodness” and two base-stock selection criteria, which in combination provide four alternative “optimal” base-stock policies. Formulas and/or conditions defining each alternative policy are provided. Our empirical study indicates that the recommended policy can be quite sensitive to the measure/criterion chosen, and that the consequences of the wrong choice can be quite considerable.     

On the optimal allocation of crewmen aboard a warship

In the temporarily isolated situation in which a warship finds itself during a mission. not only spare parts, but also “spare” crewmen in various categories of specialization must he on board. Mathematical models for the probabilities of mission survival for personnel and for personnel and materiel jointly are proposed. A practical example is worked out: the optimal allocation of spare crewmen to different categories of specialization is calculated.     

Markov chain analysis of a situation where cannibalization is the only repair activity

This paper considers a group of S identical aircraft, each of which is partitioned into K parts which fail exponentially. The only way in which a failed aircraft can be repaired is by cannibalizing its out-of-commission parts from other failed aircraft. The evolution of the number of good aircraft over time is governed by the transient behavior of an absorbing Markov chain. We can therefore study this behavior by matrix multiplication although the computational problem grows large for K ≥ 3. Some numerical results and some approximations are also provided.     

An approximate dynamic programing approach to the development of heuristics for the scheduling of impatient jobs in a clearing system

A single server is faced with a collection of jobs of varying duration and urgency. Each job has a random lifetime during which it is available for nonpreemptive service. Should a job's lifetime expire before its service begins then it is lost from the system unserved. The goal is to schedule the jobs for service to maximize the expected number served to completion. Two heuristics have been proposed in the literature. One (labeled π^S) operates a static priority among the job classes and works well in a “no premature job loss” limit, whereas the second (π^M) is a myopic heuristic which works well when lifetimes are short. Both can exhibit poor performance for problems at some distance from the regimes for which they were designed. We develop a robustly good heuristic by an approximative approach to the application of a policy improvement step to the asymptotically optimal heuristic π^S, in which we use a fluid model to obtain an approximation for the value function of π^S. The performance of the proposed heuristic is investigated in an extensive numerical study. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2010     

Optimal refueling sequence for a mixed fleet with limited refuelings

Consider a fleet of vehicles comprised of K₁ identical tankers and K₂ identical nontankers (small aircraft). Tankers are capable of refueling other tankers as well as nontankers. The problem is to find that refueling sequence of the tankers that maximizes the range simultaneously attainable by all K₂ nontankers. A recent paper established that the “unit refueling sequence,” comprised of one tanker refueling at each of K₁ refueling operations, is optimal. The same paper also proffered the following conjecture for the case that the number of refueling operations is constrained to be less than the number of tankers: A nonincreasing refueling sequence is optimal. This article proves the conjecture.     

Reading the Riot Act: Toward a More Comprehensive Ban on Chemical Weapons

ABSTRACT

The recent use of chemicals in warfare in Syria and Iraq illustrates that, despite the important work of the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), the world has not yet been totally successful in stopping the use of indiscriminate toxic agents in conflicts, either by states or non-state actors. Michael Crowley's excellent and timely new book, Chemical Control, analyzes the use of “riot control agents” (RCAs) and “incapacitating chemical agents” (ICAs), including launch and dispersal systems, by police, paramilitary, and military forces over the last decades and raises the challenging question about where the red line might be drawn between banned and permitted uses of chemicals. He discusses this problem not only in the context of the CWC, which allows use of RCAs for civilian riot control, but also in the context of international law, human rights, and criminal justice, including the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention and other disarmament and abolition regimes. He proposes a “holistic, three-stage approach” to addressing this issue “for effective regulation or prohibition of the weapon or weapon-related technology of concern.” As we approach the global abolition of a whole class of weapons of mass destruction in the next decade or even sooner, Chemical Control is helpful in better understanding and solving the dilemma of what's actually banned or permitted under international law, and precluding states undermining the chemical weapons ban.     

On the first time a separately maintained parallel system has been down for a fixed time

Consider a system consisting of n separately maintained independent components where the components alternate between intervals in which they are “up” and in which they are “down”. When the i^th component goes up [down] then, independent of the past, it remains up [down] for a random length of time, having distribution F_i[G_i], and then goes down [up]. We say that component i is failed at time t if it has been “down” at all time points s ?[t-A.t]: otherwise it is said to be working. Thus, a component is failed if it is down and has been down for the previous A time units. Assuming that all components initially start “up,” let T denote the first time they are all failed, at which point we say the system is failed. We obtain the moment-generating function of T when n = l, for general F and G, thus generalizing previous results which assumed that at least one of these distributions be exponential. In addition, we present a condition under which T is an NBU (new better than used) random variable. Finally we assume that all the up and down distributions F_i and G_i i = l,….n, are exponential, and we obtain an exact expression for E(T) for general n; in addition we obtain bounds for all higher moments of T by showing that T is NBU.     

On a sequential rule for estimating the location parameter of an exponential distribution

Let us assume that observations are obtained at random and sequentially from a population with density function In this paper we consider a sequential rule for estimating μ when σ is unknown corresponding to the following class of cost functions In this paper we consider a sequential rule for estimating μ when σ is unknown corresponding to the following class of cost functions Where δ(X_I,…,X_N) is a suitable estimator of μ based on the random sample (X₁,…, X_N), N is a stopping variable, and A and p are given constants. To study the performance of the rule it is compared with corresponding “optimum fixed sample procedures” with known σ by comparing expected sample sizes and expected costs. It is shown that the rule is “asymptotically efficient” when absolute loss (p=-1) is used whereas the one based on squared error (p = 2) is not. A table is provided to show that in small samples similar conclusions are also true.     

按保障度最大配置备件模型

考虑了备件资源有限,有多个需求单位的条件下,依据装备数量、零部件、元器件的故障率,单装用数、平均更换时间、各级维修机构领取备件的平均时间,建立了两级备件保障度的模型,并在备件总资源量一定的条件下,按保障度最大给出了两级备件配置的程序、方法和示例.模型举例说明了模型输出结果的特征和敏感性.模型应用可减少备件的积压,降低备件的短缺,提高备件的保障效果.     

Arrival and departure state distributions in the general bulk‐service queue

In this paper, we give an explicit relation between steady‐state probability distributions of the buffer occupancy at customer entrance and departure epochs, for the classical single‐server system G/G^[N]/1 with batch services and for the finite capacity case. The method relies on level‐crossing arguments. For the particular case of Poisson input, we also express the loss probability in terms of state probabilities at departure epochs, yielding probabilities observed by arriving customers. This work provides the “bulk queue” version of a result established by Burke, who stated the equality between probabilities at arrival and departure epochs for systems with “unit jumps.” © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 107–118, 1999     

Optimal reject allowance with constant marginal production efficiency

A job shop must fulfill an order for N good items. Production is conducted in “lots,” and the number of good items in a lot can be accurately determined only after production of that lot is completed. If the number of good items falls short of the outstanding order, the shop must produce further lots, as necessary. Processes with “constant marginal production efficiency” are investigated. The revealed structure allows efficient exact computation of optimal policy. The resulting minimal cost exhibits a consistent (but not universal) pattern whereby higher quality of production is advantageous even at proportionately higher marginal cost.     

Some limiting distributions associated with sequences of multinomial trials

A series of independent trials is considered in which one of k ≥ 2 mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes occurs at each trial. The series terminates when m outcomes of any one type have occurred. The limiting distribution (as m → ∞) of the number of trials performed until termination is found with particular attention to the situation where a Dirichlet distribution is assigned to the k vector of probabilities for each outcome. Applications to series of races involving k runners and to spares problems in reliability modeling are discussed. The problem of selecting a stopping rule so that the probability of the series terminating on outcome i is k^?1 (i.e., a “fair” competition) is also studied. Two generalizations of the original asymptotic problem are addressed.     

Offsets as industrial policy: Lessons from aerospace

Since 1975 “offsets” have begun to appear frequently in contracts covering international sales of aircraft and other products incorporating advanced technology. Offsets involve reciprocity beyond that normally found in an exchange of goods for money. They may involve co‐production or co‐design of the principal item to be exchanged, or acceptance by the seller of goods or services unrelated to it as partial payment (indirect offsets or countertrade).

The United States has become the major provider of offsets and anti‐offset sentiment has grown. Economists interpret them as trade diverting. Politicians from regions suffering loss of employment view them as bestowing unfair advantage to foreign competitors.

The authors examine offsets from both theoretical and policy perspectives and conclude that in such noncompetitive markets, second‐best considerations dominate, requiring case‐by‐case evaluation of impacts and rendering across‐the‐board determinations of welfare loss suspect.     

The reliability of multicomponent systems subject to cannibalization

A reliability model for multicomponent multistate systems is presented. This is a generalization of a model previously studied by Hirsch, Meisner, and Boll. In the earlier model, when a failure occurs for which no replacement spare is available, the locations using the same type of part as that having failed are “cannibalized” so as to allocate the shortages to locations where they are least detrimental to system performance. Here, we permit certain restrictions to be imposed upon the cannibalization procedure, and develop effective techniques for relating the probability laws governing the level of system performance to the system structure, cannibalization policy, kit of spare parts, and part reliabilities.     

Dynamic signatures and their use in comparing the reliability of new and used systems

The signature of a system with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) component lifetimes is a vector whose ith element is the probability that the ith component failure is fatal to the system. System signatures have been found to be quite useful tools in the study and comparison of engineered systems. In this article, the theory of system signatures is extended to versions of signatures applicable in dynamic reliability settings. It is shown that, when a working used system is inspected at time t and it is noted that precisely k failures have occurred, the vector s [0,1]^n‐k whose jth element is the probability that the (k + j)th component failure is fatal to the system, for j = 1,2,2026;,n ‐ k, is a distribution‐free measure of the design of the residual system. Next, known representation and preservation theorems for system signatures are generalized to dynamic versions. Two additional applications of dynamic signatures are studied in detail. The well‐known “new better than used” (NBU) property of aging systems is extended to a uniform (UNBU) version, which compares systems when new and when used, conditional on the known number of failures. Sufficient conditions are given for a system to have the UNBU property. The application of dynamic signatures to the engineering practice of “burn‐in” is also treated. Specifically, we consider the comparison of new systems with working used systems burned‐in to a given ordered component failure time. In a reliability economics framework, we illustrate how one might compare a new system to one successfully burned‐in to the kth component failure, and we identify circumstances in which burn‐in is inferior (or is superior) to the fielding of a new system. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

Transformation of Military Ethics During the Zhou Dynasty in Ancient China

ABSTRACT

The transformation of the governance model from a rule of virtue to political realism in China has been a topic of great interest to scholars. In this study, I examine military culture during the Zhou Dynasty and investigate the changes in ethics based on factors such as cultural values, social customs, and political structure to understand the process by which moral values have changed as the governance model transformed from rule of virtue to political realism. I found that military ethics have changed from governance through the use of rituals during the Western Zhou Dynasty to what was called “deception makes an army” during the Eastern Zhou Dynasty.     

Probability inequalities via negative dependence for random variables conditioned on order statistics

Distributions are studied which arise by considering independent and identically distributed random variables conditioned on events involving order statistics. It is shown that these distributions are negatively dependent in a very strong sense. Furthermore, bounds are found on the distribution functions. The conditioning events considered occur naturally in reliability theory as the time to system failure for k-out-of-n systems. An application to systems formed with “second-hand” components is given.