A single-machine replacement model with learning

The replacement or upgrade of productive resources over time is an important decision for a manufacturing organization. The type of technology used in the productive resources determines how effectively the manufacturing operations can support the product and marketing strategy of the organization. Increasing operating costs (cost of maintenance, labor, and depreciation) over time force manufacturing organizations to periodically consider replacement or upgrade of their existing productive resources. We assume that there is a setup cost associated with the replacement of a machine, and that the setup cost is a nonincreasing function of the number of replacements made so far due to learning in setups. The operating cost of a newer machine is assumed to be lower than the operating cost of an older machine in any given period, except perhaps in the first period of operation of the new machine when the cost could be unusually high due to higher initial depreciation. A forward dynamic programming algorithm is developed which can be used to solve finite-horizon problems. We develop procedures to find decision and forecast horizons such that choices made during the decision horizon based only on information over the forecast horizon are also optimal for any longer horizon problem. Thus, we are able to obtain optimal results for what is effectively an infinite-horizon problem while only requiring data over a finite period of time. We present a numerical example to illustrate the decision/forecast horizon procedure, as well as a study of the effects of considering learning in making a series of machine replacement decisions. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons. Inc.     

Opportunistic retooling of a flexible machine subject to failure

A set of jobs can be processed without interruption by a flexible machine only if the set of tools required by all jobs can be loaded in the tool magazine. However, in practice the total number of tools required by a job set would exceed the tool magazine capacity. In such situations, the job set has to be carefully partitioned at the start of the production run such that each partition can be processed without interruption. During the production run, if there are unscheduled machine downtimes due to machine failure, this provides an additional opportunity to optimally retool the magazine for a smaller job set consisting of just the unprocessed jobs. In this paper, we study job sequencing rules that allow us to minimize the total expected cost of machine down time due to machine failures and magazine retooling, assuming a dynamic re‐sequencing of the unprocessed jobs after each machine failure. Using these rules, we develop a branch‐and‐bound heuristic that allows us to solve problems of reasonable size. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 79–97, 2001     

On the optimality of the bayes prediction policy in two-echelon multistation inventory models

The present paper provides a proof that the Bayes prediction ordering policy developed in [3] is an optimal policy, in the sense that it minimizes the total expected discounted cost of ordering for any finite planning horizon.     

Monotone optimal preventive maintenance policies for stochastically failing equipment

This paper examines various models for maintenance of a machine operating subject to stochastic deterioration. Three alternative models are presented for the deterioration process. For each model, in addition to the replacement decision, the option exists of performing preventive maintenance. The effect of this maintenance is to “slow” the deterioration process. With an appropriate reward structure imposed on the processes, the models are formulated as continuous time Markov decision processes. the optimality criterion being the maximization of expected discounted reward earned over an infinite time horizon. For each model conditions are presented under which the optimal maintenance policy exhibits the following monotonic structure. First, there exists a control limit rule for replacement. That is, there exists a number i* such that if the state of machine deterioration exceeds i* the optimal policy replaces the machine by a new machine. Secondly, prior to replacement the optimal level of preventive maintenance is a nonincreasing function of the state of machine deterioration. The conditions which guarantee this result have a cost/benefit interpretation.     

Dynamic programming approach to the optimization of Naval aircraft rework and replacement policies

This paper describes a method for determining optimal repair and replacement policies for aireraft, with specific reference to the F–4. The objective of the analysis is to choose the set of policies from all possible alternatives over a finite planning horizon which minimizes the cost of operations. A dynamic program is presented which seeks an optimal path through a series of decision periods, when each period begins with the choice of keeping an aircraft, reworking it before further operation, or buying a new one. We do not consider changes in technology. Therefore, when a replacement does occur, it is made with a similar aircraft. Multivariate statistical techniques are used to estimate the relevant costs as a function of age, and time since last rework.     

A parallel machine replacement model

This paper considers a finite horizon parallel machine replacement problem where a fixed number of machines is in operation at all times. The operating cost for a machine goes up as the machine gets older. An older machine may have to be replaced by a new one when its operating cost becomes too high. There is a fixed order cost associated with the purchase of new machines. Machine purchase prices and salvage values may depend on the period in which they were purchased. The objective is to find a replacement plan that minimizes the total discounted cost over the problem horizon. We believe that the costs in our model are more commonly observed in practice than those previously used in the literature. The paper develops properties of optimal solutions and an efficient forward‐time algorithm to find an optimal replacement plan. A dominance property is developed that further limits the options to be considered, and a simple forecast horizon result is also presented. Future research possibilities are mentioned. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 275–287, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (http://www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10012     

Testing of software with an operational profile

One of the important features of any software system is its operational profile. This is simply the set of all operations that a software is designed to perform and the occurence probabilities of these operations. We present a new model on optimal software testing such that testing is done sequentially using a set of test cases. There may be failures due to the operations in each of these cases. The model parameters, consisting of testing costs and failure rates, all depend on the cases used and the operations performed. Our aim is to find the optimal testing durations in all of the cases in order to minimize the total expected cost. This problem leads to interesting decision models involving nonlinear programming formulations that possess explicit analytical solutions under reasonable assumptions. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Naval Research Logistics 47: 620–634, 2000     

A stochastic constrained optimal replacement model

In this paper a stochastically constrained replacement model is formulated. This model determines a sequence of replacement dates such that the total “current account” cost of all future costs and capital expenditures over an infinite time horizon for the n initial incumbent machines is minimized subject to the constraints that an expected number of machines are in a chosen utility class at any point in time. We then indicate one possible solution method for the model.     

Optimal maintenance and replacement policy for a deteriorating system with increased mean downtime

The problem of imperfect preventive maintenance (pm) and replacement schedule for a system which works below a specified failure rate is studied. For a given planning period, the optimal schedule for replacements to minimize the total cost is obtained. This article presents a branching algorithm with effective dominance rules to obtain the optimal schedule. Numerical illustration and computational experience are also presented.     

Maintaining systems with heterogeneous spare parts

We consider the problem of optimally maintaining a stochastically degrading, single‐unit system using heterogeneous spares of varying quality. The system's failures are unannounced; therefore, it is inspected periodically to determine its status (functioning or failed). The system continues in operation until it is either preventively or correctively maintained. The available maintenance options include perfect repair, which restores the system to an as‐good‐as‐new condition, and replacement with a randomly selected unit from the supply of heterogeneous spares. The objective is to minimize the total expected discounted maintenance costs over an infinite time horizon. We formulate the problem using a mixed observability Markov decision process (MOMDP) model in which the system's age is observable but its quality must be inferred. We show, under suitable conditions, the monotonicity of the optimal value function in the belief about the system quality and establish conditions under which finite preventive maintenance thresholds exist. A detailed computational study reveals that the optimal policy encourages exploration when the system's quality is uncertain; the policy is more exploitive when the quality is highly certain. The study also demonstrates that substantial cost savings are achieved by utilizing our MOMDP‐based method as compared to more naïve methods of accounting for heterogeneous spares.     

Optimal replacement rules based on different information levels

We consider the following replacement model in reliability theory. A technical system with random lifetime is replaced upon failure. Preventive replacements can be carried out before failure. The time for such a replacement depends on the observation of a random state parameter and is therefore in general a random time. Different costs for preventive and failure replacements are introduced which may depend on the age of the working system. The optimization criterion followed here to find an optimal replacement time is to minimize the total expected discounted costs. The optimal replacement policy depends on the observation of the state of the system. Results of the theory of stochastic processes are used to obtain the optimal strategy for different information levels. Several examples based on a two-component parallel system with possibly dependent component lifetimes show how the optimal replacement policy depends on the different information levels and on the degree of dependence of the components. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Operations sequencing for a multi‐stage production inventory system

This article studies operations sequencing for a multi‐stage production inventory system with lead times under predictable (deterministic) yield losses and random demand. We consider various cases with either full or partial release of work‐in‐process inventories, for either pre‐operation or post‐operation cost structures, and under either the total discounted or average cost criteria. We derive necessary and sufficient criteria for the optimal sequence of operations in all cases. While the criteria differ in their specific forms, they all lead to the same principal: those operations with (1) lower yields, (2) lower processing costs, (3) longer lead times, and (4) lower inventory holding costs should be placed higher upstream in the system.Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 144–154, 2014     

复杂系统复合维修间隔期优化模型

采用组合策略对复杂系统辅以功能检测的定期更换维修工作进行综合优化.在分析复杂系统维修费用结构和组成的基础上,建立了其无限使用期条件下单位时间期望费用的数学模型,从而获得系统最佳的功能检测间隔期、定期更换周期内的检测次数和最优总费用.最后通过一个算例验证了该策略和模型的有效性.     

Markov decision processes with restricted observations: Finite horizon case

In this article we consider a Markov decision process subject to the constraints that result from some observability restrictions. We assume that the state of the Markov process under consideration is unobservable. The states are grouped so that the group that a state belongs to is observable. So, we want to find an optimal decision rule depending on the observable groups instead of the states. This means that the same decision applies to all the states in the same group. We prove that a deterministic optimal policy exists for the finite horizon. An algorithm is developed to compute policies minimizing the total expected discounted cost over a finite horizon. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44 : 439–456, 1997     

Replacement models under additive damage

A production system which generates income is subject to random failure. Upon failure, the system is replaced by a new identical one and the replacement cycles are repeated indefinitely. In our breakdown model, shocks occur to the system in a Poisson stream. Each shock causes a random amount of damage, and these damages accumulate additively. The failure time depends on the accumulated damage in the system. The income from the system and the cost associated with a planned replacement depend on the accumulated damage in the system. An additional cost is incurred at each failure in service. We allow a controller to replace the system at any stopping time T before failure time. We will consider the problem of specifying a replacement rule that is optimal under the following criteria: maximum total long-run average net income per unit time, and maximum total long-run expected discounted net income. Our primary goal is to introduce conditions under which an optimal policy is a control limit policy and to investigate how the optimal policy can be obtained. Examples will be presented to illustrate computational procedures.     

A modified block replacement policy

A well known preventive replacement policy is the block replacement policy (BRP). In such a policy the item undergoes a planned replacement at a sequence of equally spaced time points independent of failure history. The main advantage of a BRP is its simplicity, because under this policy it is unnecessary to keep detailed records about times of failures or ages of items. The main drawback of a BRP is that at planned replacement times we may be replacing practically new items. In this paper we study a modified BRP which is free of this drawback. We calculate the expected cost of following a modified BRP for lifetime distributions possessing a special structure and illustrate it for the case of an Erlang distribution. A numerical comparison is made between a modified BRP and a standard BRP for the special case of a two stage Erlang distribution.     

An inventory model with search for best ordering price

This paper presents a single-item inventory model with deterministic demand where the buyer is allowed to search for the most favorable price before deciding on the order quantity. In the beginning of each period, a sequential random sample can be taken from a known distribution and there is a fixed cost per search. The decision maker is faced with the task of deciding when to initiate and when to stop the search process, as well as determining the optimal order quantity once the search process is terminated. The objective is to minimize total expected costs while satisfying all demands on time. We demonstrate that a set of critical numbers determine the optimal stopping and ordering strategies. We present recursive expressions yielding the critical numbers, as well as the minimal expected cost from the beginning of every period to the end of the horizon.     

Periodic replacement when minimal repair costs vary with time

A policy of periodic replacement with minimal repair at failure is considered for a complex system. Under such a policy the system is replaced at multiples of some period T while minimal repair is performed at any intervening system failures. The cost of a minimal repair to the system is assumed to be a nonde-creasing function of its age. A simple expression is derived for the expected minimal repair cost in an interval in terms of the cost function and the failure rate of the system. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of an optimal replacement interval are exhibited in the case where the system life distribution is strictly increasing failure rate (IFR).     

Optimal maintenance policy for stochastically failing equipment: A diffusion approximation

A system receives shocks at random points of time. Each shock causes a random amount of damage which accumulates over time. The system fails when the accumulated damage exceeds a fixed threshold. Upon failure the system is replaced by a new one. The damage process is controlled by means of a maintenance policy. There are M possible maintenance actions. Given that a maintenance action m is employed, then the cumulative damage decreases at rate r^m. Replacement costs and maintenance costs are considered. The objective is to determine an optimal maintenance policy under the following optimality criteria: (1) long-run average cost; (2) total expected discounted cost over an infinite horizon. For a diffusion approximation, we show that the optimal maintenance expenditure rate is monotonically increasing in the cumulative damage level.     

Nonperiodic preventive maintenance for repairable systems

As a complex system with multiple components usually deteriorates with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to keep the system functioning in a good state to prolong its effective age. In this study, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deterioration of a repairable system, and the optimal nonperiodic PM schedule can be determined to minimize the expected total cost per unit time. However, since the determination of such optimal PM policies may involve numerous uncertainties, which typically make the analyses difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data, a Bayesian decision model, which utilizes all available information effectively, is also proposed for determining the optimal PM strategies. A numerical example with a real failure data set is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results show that the optimal schedules derived by Bayesian approach are relatively more conservative than that for non‐Bayesian approach because of the uncertainty of the intensity function, and if the intensity function are updated using the collected data set, which indicates more severe deterioration than the prior belief, replacing the entire system instead of frequent PM activities before serious deterioration is suggested. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010