应急物资保障计划辅助决策模型

提出了一个制定应急物资保障计划的流程,构建了制定应急物资保障计划的数学模型,并应用运筹学的方法对其进行了优化.该模型为制定应急物资保障计划提供了有效的途径.     

基于CBR的突发事件应急物资动态需求预测方法研究

针对突发事件应急救援环境动态变化条件下的持续性物资需求问题,在系统分析应急物资需求影响因素的基础上,采用案例推理(CBR)理论与方法,构建了契合突发事件突然性和非例行性,并充分反映适时性、阶段性、随机性和不确定性等需求特征的应急物资动态需求预测模型,给出了面向对象的案例组织与表示模式、相似案例集检索方法、基于灰色关联分析的最佳相似案例匹配算法、以及案例输出与调整方法等,并通过算例进行模型有效性验证。该方法可以根据应急救援进展、灾害演变、物资消耗与筹集等情况,按需预测出下一阶段或某一时段的应急物资种类及数量需求,适用于突发事件应急救援各个阶段应急物资的需求分析,能够有效提高应急救援效率。     

基于两因素的武警部队应急军需物资需求预测分析

对武警部队应急军需物资需求预测进行了分析,明确了预测内容、方法和程序,建立起基于参战人数和参战时间两个因素的应急军需物资需求预测模型。拟合优度检验和实例计算结果表明,应急军需物资需求数量主要由参战人员和参战时间决定,并可以通过数理统计方法来建立较为精确的数量关系,这为各级后勤制定军需物资保障计划提供了更为科学的依据。     

基于时空网络的物资保障网络效能优化

针对应急物资保障效能优化问题,通过构建时空二维空间将物资保障实体网络转换为保障时空网络,提出了基于时空网络的物资保障网络效能优化模型。利用时空网络技术描述了保障网络中物资配送路径,各节点和节线(边)所运输的物资量以及相互保障关系。应用遗传算法求解得出物资保障最优配送方案。最后,通过实例仿真分析验证了模型的有效性和可行性,可为后勤保障决策部门做好应急情况下的物资保障决策提供参考。     

组合预测法在战时单兵日均物资需求预测中的应用

分析、研究、预测战时物资需求量,进而拟制相应的物资保障方案,是提高战时物资保障计划性和有效性的客观要求。利用灰色预测法和趋势预测法建立模型并进行预测,在对比分析各种物资需求预测方法的基础上,建立了基于最小二乘法加权的战时单兵日均物资需求的组合预测模型,为我军进行战时物资需求预测提供了一种可借鉴的方法。     

伊拉克战争物资保障的基本特点及其对我军的启示

以战略需要为目标,物资保障准备充分;以需求为牵引,物资保障范围空前增大;以适应为标准,物资保障方式灵活多样;以信息为主导,物资保障手段先进。伊拉克战争物资保障呈现出的上述主要特点,对于我们做好新时期军事斗争后勤物资保障准备有所启示:前提,认清战时物资保障的地位和作用;重点,做好战时物资保障准备;基础,克服物资动员这个薄弱环节;关键,提高应急机动保障能力;手段,建立平战结合的物资保障网络平台和重视自身防卫技战术的运用。     

应急物资筹集问题的双目标模糊优化决策模型

应急物资筹集决策是直接影响应急动员效果的重要决策问题之一,是实施应急保障和应急救援的关键环节。把应急物资筹集决策问题抽象为物资筹集点选择的组合优化问题,结合混合规划方法与模糊优化思想,提出了双目标模糊优化模型及改进算法;在此基础上,进一步研究了物资可动员量为模糊数时的模糊资源约束模型,并给出了相应的算法;最后用算例证明了该方法的有效性。     

基于粗糙集理论的军队代储应急物资品种选择

从军队对应急物资的需求特点及应急物资的特征属性出发,构建了军队代储应急物资品种选择的指标体系。在此基础上,通过部队调研和专家经验获得了一组军队代储应急物资品种选择的样本数据并形成了决策表,运用基于可辨识矩阵的属性频率约简算法对决策表进行属性约简,并对约简属性集进行属性值约简,提取出军队代储应急物资品种的选择规则。提取的规则简洁合理,能够为军队代储应急物资品种选择提供决策支持。     

军队遂行抢险救灾任务财力构成及估算方法

军队遂行抢险救灾任务财力由准备费用、实施费用、清理费用等构成。将因素法与类比法结合起来构建财力需求估算模型,预测军队遂行抢险救灾任务财力需求,有利于高效组织经费保障。模型运行的前提是,应建立健全应急财务保障标准体系和抢险救灾经费保障信息系统、抢险救灾装备物资储备与损耗数据库,以及完善军事资产计价登记制度。     

应急作战装备物资供应链研究

把供应链管理理论应用到应急作战装备物资供应中,抛弃传统的管理模式,从应急作战装备物资供应链的内涵、应急作战装备物资供应链管理内容、应急作战装备物资供应链管理方法和应急作战装备物资供应链实施策略4个方面进行阐述,旨在提高应急作战条件下装备物资供应保障效率。     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

India's counter-insurgency experience: the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy

The Indian Army, a force trained primarily for conventional warfare, has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s. Despite such a long innings on a counter-insurgency mode, little attention has been accorded within military circles to doctrinal innovation for waging sub-conventional warfare in India's democratic political context. At best, the Army continues to view counter-insurgency duty as secondary to its primary duty of defending India from external conventional threats. By conceptualizing a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’, this article aims to fill this critical doctrinal gap in India's military policy. The author argues that a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’ based on democratic political culture, measured military methods, special counter-insurgency forces, local social and cultural awareness and an integrative nation-building approach will result in positive handling of India's internal security problems. The author utilizes India's counter-insurgency experiences in Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation ‘Sadhbhavana’ in Jammu and Kashmir as illustrative empirical indicants in order to validate the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy.     

An Unlikely Alliance: Portuguese and South African Airpower in Angola, 1968–1974

The war that Portugal was obliged to fight in Africa began in 1961 and immediately stretched the resources of its armed forces. Nowhere was this thinness more apparent than in policing the vast territory of Angola. The east and southeast of Angola were particularly vulnerable, as the area was a vast, sparsely populated region characterised by enormous featureless plains or chanas covered in tall grass and broken by an extensive river system and mountainous forests. The only military solution to policing these immense spaces was aviation and specifically the helicopter that could carry troops into battle, protect them with a gunship and bring them home when the operation was concluded. The immediate problem for the Portuguese Air Force (Força Aérea Portuguesa or FAP) in Angola and elsewhere was a scarcity of helicopters. The solution was an alliance with South Africa, which had a strong inventory of Alouette IIIs, to help in policing the east. This move was likewise in the interest of South Africa, as its threat came from Zambia through south-eastern Angola. This article examines the strategic and tactical development of this unusual, cross-cultural alliance and the symbiotic relationship that resulted in destruction of the enemies of both in Angola.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

国内外结构钢焊条研究的现状与发展

本文主要介绍了国外焊条的现状和发展趋势,包括焊条的高韧性、高效率、低尘低毒和耐吸潮性能,为国内的焊条研究提供了参考依据。     

A Sign of Victory?: ‘Scottish Swords’ and Other Weapons in the Possession of the ‘Auld Innemie’

Many late medieval documents, notably inventories of arms and armour, of Englishmen contain references to ‘Scottish swords’ and other weapons. What did the compilers of these documents mean when they described a weapon as ‘Scottish’? How did such weapons come to be in the possession of these men? This article will attempt to explain this phenomenon drawing on primary documentary sources and surviving material culture from Glasgow Museums’ collections and others, as well as artworks from the period.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.