APPRAISING REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

Since achieving political independence African countries have been involved in policies of regional co-operation and integration. Africa's leaders see regional integration as a way to harness resources collectively, to penetrate global markets and to attract foreign direct investment. The experience of African undertaking suggests, however, that regional co-operation has faced many obstacles and that co-operation arrangements in future will not be easy. Importantly, regional co-operation in Southern Africa raises issues of loyalties, resource availability, duplication of efforts and competition. Added to this is the aspect of globalisation, which is creating new economic challenges as well as new opportunities for regional integration.     

论国外开发落后地区的财政金融政策──兼谈对我国西部大开发的借鉴

国外在开发落后地区的政策方面已经积累了许多成功的经验和失败的教训。财政政策上涉及转移支付、财政补助、政府赠款、政府采购、税收优惠等。金融政策上涉及优惠贷款、贷款担保、资金跨区流动、投资基金等。这些对我国西部大开发都有着一定的借鉴意义。     

Defense–Growth Causality: Considerations of Regime-Switching and Time- and Country-Varying Effects

This paper develops a panel smooth transition vector autoregressive model to investigate the economic growth–defense causality. This model simultaneously resolves the estimation problems of endogeneity, heterogeneity, and nonlinearity. Empirical results support that the causality is bidirectional, nonlinear, time- and country-varying. Economic growth has a negative impact on military spending and vice versa. The larger the HDI, the smaller the negative causality. Evidently, the increase in the level of country development can reduce the negative impact of military outlays on economic growth. Reducing the ratio of military spending to GDP is beneficial for countries with low HDI scores; however, moderately increasing the share of military expenditure is favorable for countries with extremely high HDI scores. Policy authority needs to set optimal education, health, and economic development shares of GDP for purchasing a maximum economic growth rate.     

Outsourcing the prosecution of Somali pirates to Kenya

There has been a failure by the international community to establish an effective system of prosecution for the trial of captured Somali pirates. This failure is in part due to the inability of the United States and by developed countries in Europe to carry out their responsibility as prescribed under international laws dealing with the prosecution of captured pirates. Owing to domestic political pressures, it has become politically expedient to outsource the trial of captured Somali pirates to Kenya and other developing countries in the East African region. By the end of 2009, Kenya had signed six memoranda of understanding with Canada, China, Demark, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union. Kenya has become the single largest destination for the trial of captured Somali pirates whose victims are not Kenyans; the attacked vessels do not fly the Kenyan flag, the attacked ships are not managed by Kenyans and the crimes did not occur in Kenya's territorial waters. Outsourcing as constructed, conceived and implemented at present is morally and legally wrong. It has left a weak and poor country to shoulder the responsibility of the international community. This paper examines the reasons for outsourcing and its implications for Kenya.     

PEACEKEEPERS AS PERPETRATORS OF ABUSE

I am afraid there is clear evidence that acts of gross misconduct have taken place. This is a shameful thing for the United Nations to have to say, and I am absolutely outraged by it.

—Kofi Annan, United Nations Secretary-General

Despite promulgating a comprehensive set of guidelines to deter UN personnel from committing acts of sexual misconduct, allegations of sexual exploitation and abuse have become widespread within United Nations peacekeeping missions. The policy of zero-tolerance for peacekeeper misconduct has not been matched by strong disciplinary measures, and crimes are often ignored and rarely punished: absentee fathers, rapists and murderers simply disappear back in their home countries. In countries where women and children rarely have the same economic resources, political rights and authority or control over their environment—or their bodies—they easily become prey for those in perceived positions of power and authority. By failing to hold those responsible to account, the UN may in fact be fuelling even greater discrimination and violence against women and children. In order to ensure those who are mandated to protect to do not become perpetrators of abuse, the UN must take a stronger stand against those who commit acts of sexual misconduct, and must ensure that victims see that their abuser is brought to justice and that reparation is offered. A recent report submitted by the Secretary-General's Special Envoy on Sexual Exploitation and Sexual Abuse makes a comprehensive set of recommendations to prevent, detect, and respond to these allegations. The aim of this essay is to highlight some of the main points of the Special Envoy's report, and to examine the practical challenges the UN and troop/police contributing countries will face when attempting to implement these recommendations.     

论实现现代法治的基本途径

不同国家依各自传统 ,有不同的法治之路 ,中国的法治建设应立足传统 ,走有中国特色的法治之路 ,即社会演进型与政府推进型相结合的道路     

别斯兰事件后俄罗斯反恐机制的重建

随着苏联的解体,本来著称于世的强效反恐机制一夜之间分崩离析,反恐部门权责不清,协调不畅,反恐不力,恐怖势力乘虚而入,俄罗斯频频处于恐怖事件威胁之下。别斯兰事件给俄罗斯敲响了警钟。通过实施一系列有效措施,俄罗斯重建反恐机制,并取得明显效果。     

试论科技进步与中国国际责任的现实担当

当代科技进步不仅影响着世界格局的变革,也深刻影响着国家的外交行为。随着中国经济实力和科技实力的快速发展,中国更为主动、自信地以大国身份融入国际社会,在几乎所有重要的全球性国际机制中都发挥着积极作用,遵守和履行相应的规则和义务,承担为国际社会提供公共产品以及维护正常合理的国际秩序等国际责任。但随着全球问题的不断增多,国际社会对中国承担更多国际责任的期待也在增多,有些西方国家甚至要求中国承担超出能力的国际责任。面对错综复杂的新形势,中国应该清醒认识自身的国际角色定位,在确保自身崛起的前提下,以科技实力和综合国力承担起力所能及的国际责任,为中国的和平发展提供更广泛的认同基础。     

Trinitarian troubles: governmental,military, and societal explanations for post-1945 Western failures in asymmetric conflicts

It seems paradoxical that powerful Western states are at their most vulnerable when the disparity in military capabilities between them and their opponents is at its largest. Yet it is precisely in such ‘asymmetric conflicts’ that Western countries have failed to achieve their overall political objectives the most often. Focusing on the post-1945 world, this article will examine governmental, military, and societal reasons for Western failures in asymmetric conflicts. Politicians' lack of understanding regarding war's fundamental nature, militaries' tendency to dissociate operational goals from grand strategy objectives and citizens' moral aversion to warfare appear to be among the main obstacles to success.     

Development and conflict in the Balkans: Catch-up and military expenditure

This paper analyses the convergence between countries in relation to the catch-up hypothesis concerning the level of total productivity. The catch-up hypothesis claims that poor countries tend to grow faster than rich countries through the international diffusion of knowledge and technology. We test this hypothesis for the Balkan countries and investigate the effect of military expenditure in the region on productivity growth. The aim is to investigate empirically whether productivity growth has been greater in countries with lower military expenditure, in line with theory. The results obtained show that, overall, improvements in technological change co-exist with deteriorating technical efficiency change and that there is a negative correlation between military expenditure and either total productivity growth and technological change, and a positive, but statistically insignificant, relationship with technical efficiency change. We conclude that economic growth is the key to regional development and that too great a diversion of resources to military commitments can lead to overstretch.     

Cost-based due-date assignment with the use of classical and neural-network approaches

Traditional methods of due-date assignment presented in the literature and used in practice generally assume cost-of-earliness and cost-of-tardiness functions that may bear little resemblance to true costs. For example, practitioners using ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression implicitly minimize a quadratic cost function symmetric about the due date, thereby assigning equal second-order costs to early completion and tardy behavior. In this article the consequences of such assumptions are pointed out, and a cost-based assignment scheme is suggested whereby the cost of early completion may differ in form and/or degree from the cost of tardiness. Two classical approaches (OLS regression and mathematical programming) as well as a neural-network methodology for solving this problem are developed and compared on three hypothetical shops using simulation techniques. It is found for the cases considered that: (a) implicitly ignoring cost-based assignments can be very costly; (b) simpler regression-based rules cited in the literature are very poor cost performers; (c) if the earliness and tardiness cost functions are both linear, linear programming and neural networks are the methodologies of choice; and (d) if the form of the earliness cost function differs from that of the tardiness cost function, neural networks are statistically superior performers. Finally, it is noted that neural networks can be used for a wide range of cost functions, whereas the other methodologies are significantly more restricted. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

From adversity to prosperity

This article interrogates the continuing relevance of the contractarian governance paradigm to resource governance and the impact of exploitation on the local population and environment in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Zimbabwe and Ghana. It highlights the susceptibilities of their governance processes, particularly the roles of the elites of the host communities, the multinational corporations, and the governing authorities in appropriating resources for their personal interests, resulting in tensions and conflicts. This scenario is borne out of inept leadership, as well as the defective and compromised administrative mechanisms operational in these countries. In view of this, the article underscores the need for a ‘new governance management paradigm’ anchored on a communitarian framework, which incorporates all stakeholders, to guarantee sustainable peace and prosperity, particularly in conflict zones. The article therefore concludes that achieving a nexus between forestry, mining activities and economic development in these countries will require a restructuring of the existing governance mechanisms; and advocates for a new governance model capable of curbing the excesses of local and foreign hegemony, including a total overhaul of the seemingly compromised supervising authority.     

经略周边 助梦中国与世界——学习习近平主席在周边外交工作座谈会上的重要讲话

周边外交是我国总体外交的重要组成部分。在新时期,我们应当把中国梦同周边各国人民过上美好生活的愿望、同地区发展前景对接起来,让命运共同体意识在周边国家落地生根,并致力践行“亲、诚、惠、容”的周边外交理念。“亲”就是要传承山水相连、血脉相通的传统友谊;“诚”就是要坚持重义守信、言出必行;“惠”就是要让中国的发展惠及周边,实现互利共赢;“容”就是要实现和而不同、多元共生的包容开放发展。做好周边外交工作,为实现中国梦保驾护航并搭建更加广阔的舞台,带动亚太梦和世界梦。     

The Israel Defense Forces as an epistemic authority: An intellectual challenge in the reality of the Israeli – Palestinian conflict

The changes in the nature of warfare and its transformation toward Low Intensity Conflict (LIC) intrastate conflict have challenged the patterns of interaction between the political and the military echelons in Israel. It seems that the political echelon's superiority is maintained at the institutional and formal levels, but on the substantive level, which demands relying on knowledge and systematic staff work, the political echelon's position is weakened and loses its validity.

Introducing the military echelon in Israel as an epistemic authority regarding the violent confrontation and the main outlines of the military knowledge development process might clarify why the absence of the required dialogue between the echelons and the weakness of the intellectual effort increased the military's influence over the shaping of Israeli conflict-management strategy. The argument's validity and its explanatory power can be found relevant for other countries whose militaries are deeply involved in the management of LIC.     

信息技术与中国远距离教育合作体系的建设

现代信息技术所引起的远程教育的变化是革命性的,由此产生了全新的现代网络大学.中国的普通高校、成人高校和广播电视大学都将参与进去,这是它们发展的新机会,也是新的挑战.我国教育的发展方式正由外延的数量扩张型转入内涵的规模质量型,整个教育系统以及远程教育的发展需要组织创新,而最重要的是加强教育合作.从教育改革、特别是课程改革的要求看,广播电大与普通高校的合作应以课程的开放管理为基础,建立具有融洽性、通用性、灵活性、整体性和可操作性的合作关系,目标是给求学者以充分选择的自由性和再选择的变通性.只有在这种开放课程的合作模式中,广播电大才有可能成为中国远程教育的主角之一.     

Formation of Insurgent Groups: MEND and Boko Haram in Nigeria

Contrary to earlier notions that religious diversity, ethnicity and the lack of economic development are the main factors responsible for the surge of violence in Nigeria, this article argues that the means of attaining or retaining political authority by politicians are responsible for violent conflicts and the formation of insurgent groups. Using theories of patrimonialism and prebendalism, the article argues that political power and authority are often channelled for personal use in a predatory manner that results in the formation of insurgent groups. The aim of this article is to proffer a different analytical framework for the understanding of the formation of insurgent groups based on political authority.     

The economic effects of international trade in armaments in the major western industrialized and developing countries†

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the impact of exports and imports of armaments (based on 1980 data) on sectoral trade and employment and other economic variables in the major Western trading countries. If the United States were to place a unilateral embargo on its arms exports and imports, we calculate that it would experience a comparatively small amount of employment displacement in the aggregate and that most of this displacement would occur in the transport equipment and electric machinery sectors. If all the major Western countries were to place a multilateral embargo on their arms trade, the sectoral effects on the United States would be similarly small. But the sectoral effects in several other industrialized and developing countries measured as a percentage of sectoral employment, would be larger, indicating potential short‐run adjustment problems in labor markets in some cases.     

THE MILITARY,CIVIL SOCIETY AND DEMOCRACY IN ZAMBIA

The lure of regionalism has had profound effects on the foreign policies of African countries. It is contended that such collaborative efforts will serve as building blocks of a future African Economic Community and African Union. This article explores the experiences of SADC and ECOWAS, prominent African subregional organisations. With the domestic state that is more vulnerable to transnational and international developments, globalisation erodes the capacity of the state to pursue broad-based projects and undermines and transforms international relations. This leads to the ‘new security dilemma’ with the state system becoming the key source of insecurity in the contemporary world. The search for security increasingly involves the resort to different forms of exit from the system. State-centric regional co-operation thus becomes less important and in some cases obsolete. The experiences in Africa suggest a call for a more modest expectation of what regional integration can realistically achieve.     

Spatial Distribution of Minority Communities and Terrorism: Domestic Concentration versus Transnational Dispersion

Qualitative studies of terrorist movements frequently highlight the importance of diaspora communities as important factors in producing and sustaining terrorist activity in countries. The underlying theoretical argument is that bifurcation of tight-knit minority communities between countries nurtures separatist or irredentist sentiments among affected community members, thus prompting terrorist activity, while minority community members in other countries might mobilize financial and political resources to support terrorist activity among their compatriots. In this study, we empirically test whether transnational dispersion, versus domestic concentration, of minority communities in countries produces higher incidents of terrorism. Conducting a series of negative binomial estimations on a reshaped database of around 170 countries from 1981 to 2006, derived from the Minorities at Risk database and the Global Terrorism Database, we determine that both transnational dispersion of kin minority communities and domestic concentration of minorities within countries increase terrorism and that transnational dispersion is a particularly robust predictor of terrorist attacks.     

The Changing Nature of Legitimate Authority in the Just War Tradition

ABSTRACT

The legitimate authority principle has become reduced to the issue of state authority. In its current formulation, the state has the sole authority to wage war, and because non-state actors, by their very definition, cannot satisfy this principle, their use of force is inherently unethical. This does not reflect the reality that non-state actors are increasingly engaging in the use of force, sometimes legitimately. As a result, the legitimate authority principle can and should look beyond the state. This article navigates a terrain in which non-state actors engage in the use of force, and in which revisionist just war thinking proposes that the concept of legitimate authority is irrelevant to thinking about the ethics of war. It proposes a principled approach to the inclusion of some non-state actors under the rubric of legitimate authority. This approach draws upon the historical development of the legitimate authority principle and incorporates the factors important to early writers on the subject.