Effective attacks in the salvo combat model: Salvo sizes and quantities of targets

This article considers two related questions of tactics in the context of the salvo model for naval missile combat. For a given set of targets, how many missiles should be fired to produce an effective attack? For a given available salvo size, how many enemy targets should be fired at? In the deterministic version of the model I derive a simple optimality relationship between the number of missiles to fire and the number of targets to engage. In the stochastic model I employ the expected loss inflicted and the probability of enemy elimination as the main performance measures and use these to derive salvo sizes that are in some sense “optimal.” I find that the offensive firepower needed for an effective attack depends not only on a target's total strength but also on the relative balance between its active defensive power and passive staying power. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

When is model complexity too much? Illustrating the benefits of simple models with Hughes' salvo equations

The simulations that many defense analysts rely upon in their studies continue to grow in size and complexity. This paper contrasts the guidance that the authors have received—from some of the giants of military operations research—with the current practice. In particular, the analytic utility of Hughes' simple salvo equations is compared with that of the complex Joint Warfighting System (JWARS), with respect to JWARS' key performance parameters. The comparison suggests that a family of analytic tools supports the best analyses. It follows that smaller, more agile, and transparent models, such as Hughes' salvo equations, are underutilized in defense analyses. We believe that these models should receive more attention, use, and funding. To illustrate this point, this paper uses two very simple models (by modern standards) to rapidly generate insights on the value of information relative to force strength. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

On efficient algorithms for finding efficient salvo policies

We consider the salvo policy problem, in which there are k moments, called salvos, at which we can fire multiple missiles simultaneously at an incoming object. Each salvo is characterized by a probability p_i: the hit probability of a single missile. After each salvo, we can assess whether the incoming object is still active. If it is, we fire the missiles assigned to the next salvo. In the salvo policy problem, the goal is to assign at most n missiles to salvos in order to minimize the expected number of missiles used. We consider three problem versions. In Gould's version, we have to assign all n missiles to salvos. In the Big Bomb version, a cost of B is incurred when all salvo's are unsuccessful. Finally, we consider the Quota version in which the kill probability should exceed some quota Q. We discuss the computational complexity and the approximability of these problem versions. In particular, we show that Gould's version and the Big Bomb version admit pseudopolynomial time exact algorithms and fully polynomial time approximation schemes. We also present an iterative approximation algorithm for the Quota version, and show that a related problem is NP-complete.     

弹着时间可控的机动目标多弹协同制导律*

针对机动目标的多导弹齐射攻击,运用最优控制和卡尔曼滤波理论探索机动目标下弹着时间可控制导律问题。设计了一种最优弹着时间可控的制导律,它由指定弹着时间和预计弹着时间的误差作为反馈信号与传统比例制导律结合推导得出,称之为弹着时间可控制导律（Impact-time-control Guidance Law,简称ITCG）,同时利用卡尔曼滤波估计了目标加速度。通过对作战模型情况的仿真,可以看出这种新型的制导律应用于引导多发导弹以指定时间同时攻击目标时的有效性和可行性。     

弹着时间可控的机动目标多弹协同制导律

针对机动目标的多导弹齐射攻击,运用最优控制和卡尔曼滤波理论探索机动目标下弹着时间可控制导律问题。设计了一种最优弹着时间可控的制导律,它由指定弹着时间和预计弹着时间的误差作为反馈信号与传统比例制导律结合推导得出,称之为弹着时间可控制导律（Impact-time-control Guidance Law,简称ITCG）,同时利用卡尔曼滤波估计了目标加速度。通过对作战模型情况的仿真,可以看出这种新型的制导律应用于引导多发导弹以指定时间同时攻击目标时的有效性和可行性。     

高炮火控外弹道实时解算及其应用

建立了某型高炮火控系统的外弹道解算模型,此模型采用迭代-修正的方式,使用Runge-Kutta-Felhberg自适应步长数值解法,直接解4D外弹道方程组,得到射角和弹丸飞行时间.还对该方法的精度和实时性进行了分析,确定了高炮火控系统应用外弹道方程实时解算模型的可能性.     

Analysis of artillery shoot‐and‐scoot tactics

Firing multiple artillery rounds from the same location has two main benefits: a high rate of fire at the enemy and improved accuracy as the shooter's aim adjusts to previous rounds. However, firing repeatedly from the same location carries significant risk that the enemy will detect the artillery's location. Therefore, the shooter may periodically move locations to avoid counter‐battery fire. This maneuver is known as the shoot‐and‐scoot tactic. This article analyzes the shoot‐and‐scoot tactic for a time‐critical mission using Markov models. We compute optimal move policies and develop heuristics for more complex and realistic settings. Spending a reasonable amount of time firing multiple shots from the same location is often preferable to moving immediately after firing an initial salvo. Moving frequently reduces risk to the artillery, but also limits the artillery's ability to inflict damage on the enemy.     

88B坦克分队与M60A3坦克分队随机火力对抗

以 8 8 B坦克分队进攻防御阵地之 M6 0 A3坦克分队为立足点 ,建立双方随机对抗时的兰彻斯特平方律模型 ,结合战场实际 ,得出 88B坦克分队取得最大作战效能时的最佳兵力比 ,及其运用火力的几点结论。     

配电系统谐波电流火灾隐患研究

随着人民生活水平的提高,非线性用电设备大量使用,这方便和提高了人们的生活质量,但非线性负载会给三相供电线路注入谐波电流,引发中性线过载。从配电系统谐波电流的产生、危害入手,应用Fourier级数分解方法对非正弦周期电流进行理论分析,得出三次谐波及其奇数倍谐波会在中性线产生叠加效应,再加上三相负载不平衡,造成中性线过载,进而引发火灾事故的结论。     

基于正交最小二乘估计的非线性时间序列的预测

在对非线性时间序列的短期预测中经常采用局部线性化的预测算法 ,原有的算法使用普通最小二乘法 (LS)估计近似线性模型的参数。对于存在噪声的数据 ,该算法的数值稳定性较差。本文在对非线性空间进行局部线性化的基础上 ,采用正交最小二乘方法 (OLS)对线性模型同时进行结构选择与参数辨识 ,改善了数值的病态特性 ,增强了算法的稳定性     

坦克连对岛上战车排进攻作战能力分析

利用作战动力学方法对我军一个装备有某新型的坦克连对敌一个战车排进攻的作战能力进行分析,分火力压制,疏开展开,冲击对抗三个阶段,用兰彻斯特平方定律公式建立模型进行定量分析,得出了对抗结束时双方兵力剩余数量和双方兵力损耗规律;提出了可指导作战的一些参考建议,为我坦克部队新装备形成战斗力,新时期岛上作战战法研究提供参考依据.     

谈比例原则在规范消防行政执法裁量权中的适用

比例原则着眼于法益的均衡,要求行政主体在实现行政管理目标的同时,注意维护相对人的权益。作为行政法上控制自由裁量权的一项重要原则,在阐述了比例原则内涵与价值的基础上,针对消防行政执法自由裁量权行使的错位与失范,提出用比例原则进行规范与控制。     

声自导雷平行齐射发现概率解析计算模型

为了准确快速地评估声自导鱼雷平行齐射的作战效能（发现概率）,从鱼雷、目标的相对运动入手,将目标位置及运动随机误差转移到鱼雷航向上;如此建立了计算声自导鱼雷平行齐射发现概率的一重积分解析模型（不考虑鱼雷航行性能误差）和四重积分解析计算模型（考虑鱼雷航行性能误差）。最后以统计模型为标准来验证两个解析模型的正确性。仿真结果显示,对于90%左右的考察态势,解析模型与统计模型的结果差的绝对值在1%之内,另外10%左右的考察态势,也在1%-3%之间。从而验证了所建解析模型的正确性和可行性。     

商用厨房火灾危险性评价及对策研究

火灾危险性评价是开展消防监督检查的有效方法之一。基于此,采用模糊层次分析法对商用厨房的火灾风险进行评价,并应用于具体的商用厨房火灾风险评估中。根据所得结论,提出预防商用厨房火灾的合理化建议。     

修订地方性消防法规需要审视的几个关系

随着消防法的修订颁布,目前各地适用的地方性消防法规的相关规定已经不适应新形势下消防法制建设的需要,亟待重新修订。通过对消防法、相关法律以及部门消防规章与地方性消防法规之间关系的审视和分析,为地方性消防法规的修订提供参考。     

论消防行政权责一致原则与火灾事故问责的风险对策

通过分析吉林＂6·3＂火灾事故责任的追究,用以＂案＂说法的形式,从行政法权责一致的原则,分析当前消防监督执法工作问责的风险,探讨防范被问责的对策,力求对消防监督执法责任的落实有指导意义。     

加强和改进消防行政执法之我见

消防行政执法是公安消防机构最主要的职责和基本活动,是消防执法人员的经常性工作。根据形势发展对消防行政执法的要求,结合消防行政执法实践,揭示了当前行政执法中存在的问题及其致因,并提出了加强和改进消防行政执法的基本对策。     

Attrition modeling in the presence of decoys: An operations-other-than-war motivation

Under various operational conditions, in particular in operations other than war (OOTW) or peacekeeping, an intervening force, here Blue, must occasionally engage in attrition warfare with an opposing force, here Red, that is intermingled with noncombatants. Desirably, Red armed actives are targeted, and not the unarmed noncombatants. This article describes some simple Lanchesterian attrition models that reflect a certain capacity of Blue to discriminate noncombatants from armed and active Red opponents. An explicit extension of the Lanchester square law results: Blue's abstinence concerning the indiscriminate shooting of civilians mixed with Red's is essentially reflected in a lower Blue rate of fire and less advantageous exchange rate. The model applies to other situations involving decoys, and reflects the value of a discrimination capability. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44 : 507–514, 1997     

Effects of lethality in naval combat models

In the context of both discrete time salvo models and continuous time Lanchester models we examine the effect on naval combat of lethality: that is, the relative balance between the offensive and defensive attributes of the units involved. We define three distinct levels of lethality and describe the distinguishing features of combat for each level. We discuss the implications of these characteristics for naval decision‐makers; in particular, we show that the usefulness of the intuitive concept “more is better” varies greatly depending on the lethality level. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

某机场航站楼消防性能化设计实例解析

介绍了消防性能化设计应用于某机场新航站楼的案例,给出了关于防火分区面积扩大、疏散距离超长、大空间烟控系统设计、以登机桥作为疏散出口等消防问题的解决策略,以及机场人员荷载的确定方法。同时就航站楼特有的空陆隔离措施以及防火分隔对人员疏散的影响作出了分析。