基于模糊集和证据推理方法的武器系统可靠性评估

提出了一种评估武器系统可靠性的新方法。在这种方法中,武器系统中各组成部分及零部件的可靠性用模糊语言变量来表示,利用证据推理方法合成各子系统零部件的可靠性评估结果,提高了各子系统的可靠性水平。文中以某高炮系统的可靠性评估阐述了该方法的应用情况     

Exact bayesian estimation of system reliability from component test data

System reliability is often estimated by the use of components' reliability test results when system test data are not available, or are very scarce. A method is proposed for computing the exact posterior probability density function, cumulative distribution function, and credible intervals for system reliability in a Bayesian setting, with the use of components' prior probability distributions and current test results. The method can be applied to series, parallel, and many mixed systems. Although in theory the method involves evaluating infinite series, numerical results show that a small number of terms from the infinite series are sufficient in practice to provide accurate estimates of system reliability. Furthermore, because the coefficients in the series follow some recurrence relations, our results allow us to calculate the reliability distribution of a large system from that of its subsystems. Error bounds associated with the proposed method are also given. Numerical comparisons with other existing approaches show that the proposed method is efficient and accurate. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A nonparametric Bayes approach to decide system burn-in time

Burn-in is the preconditioning of assemblies and the accelerated power-on tests performed on equipment subject to temperature, vibration, voltage, radiation, load, corrosion, and humidity. Burn-in techniques are widely applied to integrated circuits (IC) to enhance the component and system reliability. However, reliability prediction by burn-in at the component level, such as the one using the military (e.g., MIL-STD-280A, 756B, 217E [23–25]) and the industrial standards (e.g., the JEDEC standards), is usually not consistent with the field observations. Here, we propose system burn-in, which can remove many of the residual defects left from component and subsystem burn-in (Chien and Kuo [6]). A nonparametric model is considered because 1) the system configuration is usually very complicated, 2) the components in the system have different failure mechanisms, and 3) there is no good model for modeling incompatibility among components and subsystems (Chien and Kuo [5]; Kuo [16]). Since the cost of testing a system is high and, thus, only small samples are available, a Bayesian nonparametric approach is proposed to determine the system burn-in time. A case study using the proposed approach on MCM ASIC's shows that our model can be applied in the cases where 1) the tests and the samples are expensive, and 2) the records of previous generation of the products can provide information on the failure rate of the system under investigation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 655–671, 1997     

Approximate Bayesian intervals for the reliability of series systems from mixed subsystem test data

The determination of exact Bayesian intervals for the reliability of a series system from subsystem test data gives rise to computational difficulties involving severe loss of computing precision as the number of subsystems in the system increases. The end points of Bayesian intervals are percentage points of the posterior distribution and these are shown to be well approximated by Cornish and Fisher expansions when the number of subsystems is small. As the number of subsystems in the system increases even greater accuracy is guaranteed by the asymptotic nature of the expansions. The system posterior distribution function is also shown to be well approximated by an Edgeworth expansion.     

The reliability of a series system of repairable subsystems: A bayesian approach

Consider the problem of estimating the reliability of a series system of (possibly) repairable subsystems when test data and historical information are available at the component, subsystem, and system levels. Such a problem is well suited to a Bayesian approach. Martz, Waller, and Fickas [Technometrics, 30 , 143–154 (1988)] presented a Bayesian procedure that accommodates pass/fail (binomial) data at any level. However, other types of test data are often available, including (a) lifetimes of nonrepayable components, and (b) repair histories for repairable subsystems. In this article we describe a new Bayesian procedure that accommodates pass/fail, life, and repair data at any level. We assume a Weibull model for the life data, a censored Weibull model for the pass/fail data, and a power-law process model for the repair data. Consequently, the test data at each level can be represented by a two-parameter likelihood function of a certain form, and historical information can be expressed using a conjugate family of prior distributions. We discuss computational issues, and use the procedure to analyze the reliability of a vehicle system. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Asymptotically optimal component assembly plans in repairable systems and server allocation in parallel multiserver queues

T identical exponential lifetime components out of which G are initially functioning (and B are not) are to be allocated to N subsystems, which are connected either in parallel or in series. Subsystem i, i = 1,…, N, functions when at least K_i of its components function and the whole system is maintained by a single repairman. Component repair times are identical independent exponentials and repaired components are as good as new. The problem of the determination of the assembly plan that will maximize the system reliability at any (arbitrary) time instant t is solved when the component failure rate is sufficiently small. For the parallel configuration, the optimal assembly plan allocates as many components as possible to the subsystem with the smallest K_i and allocates functioning components to subsystems in increasing order of the K_i's. For the series configuration, the optimal assembly plan allocates both the surplus and the functioning components equally to all subsystems whenever possible, and when not possible it favors subsystems in decreasing order of the K_i's. The solution is interpreted in the context of the optimal allocation of processors and an initial number of jobs in a problem of routing time consuming jobs to parallel multiprocessor queues. © John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 732–746, 2001     

复杂测量系统的计量检定研究

目前条件下 ,对由多个子系统构成的复杂测量系统的最终测量结果的计量检定存在诸多困难。通过对子系统的计量检定实现复杂系统的计量检定的研究 ,提出了复杂系统计量检定的理论依据和现实可行性 ,解决了多种仪器的计量检定问题。给出了 4线微电阻测量仪的检定实例。     

An efficient and modular modeling for launch dynamics of tubed rockets on a moving launcher

This paper develops a modular modeling and efficient formulation of launch dynamics with marching fire (LDMF) using a mixed formulation of the transfer matrix method for multibody systems (MSTMM) and Newton-Euler formulation. Taking a ground-borne multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), the focus is on the launching subsystem comprising the rocket, flexible tube, and tube tail. The launching subsystem is treated as a coupled rigid-flexible multibody system, where the rocket and tube tail are treated as rigid bodies while the flexible tube as a beam with large motion. Firstly, the tube and tube tail can be elegantly handled by the MSTMM, a computationally efficient order-N formulation. Then, the equation of motion of the in-bore rocket with relative kinematics w.r.t. the tube using the Newton-Euler method is derived. Finally, the rocket, tube, and tube tail dynamics are coupled, yielding the equation of motion of the launching subsystem that can be regarded as a building block and further integrated with other subsystems. The deduced dynamics equation of the launching subsystem is not limited to ground-borne MLRS but also fits for tanks, self-propelled artilleries, and other air-borne and naval-borne weapons undergoing large motion. Numerical simulation results of LDMF are given and partially verified by the experiment.     

铁路区间信号系统测试评估平台——信号设备与列车运行仿真研究

铁路区间信号系统测试评估平台是对铁路区间列车运行安全控制和防护系统进行可靠性、安全性测试及评估的平台.区间信号设备与列车运行仿真子系统是平台的一个子系统,它为平台提供了一个虚拟的现场环境.采用面向对象技术和离散事件仿真技术对仿真子系统进行了研究.详细地阐述了信号设备及列车的仿真模型、设计和仿真算法,并给出仿真实例,满足平台对仿真子系统地要求.     

Confidence bounds and propagation of uncertainties in system availability and reliability computations

This paper develops bounds on the uncertainties in system availabilities or reliabilities which have been computed from structural (series, parallel, etc.) relations among uncertain subsystem availabilities or reliabilities. It is assumed that the highly available (reliable) subsystems have been tested or simulated to determine their unavailabilities (unreliabilities) to within some small percentages of uncertainty. It is shown that series, parallel and r out of n structures which are nominally highly available will have unavailability uncertainties whose percentages errors are of the same order as the subsystem uncertainties. Thus overall system analysis errors, even for large systems, are of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainties in the component probabilities. Both systematic (bias type) uncertainties and independent random uncertainties are considered.     

动态逆和变结构控制理论的BTT无人机控制系统设计

基于动态逆和变结构控制理论设计了BTT无人机控制系统,首先应用时间尺度理论将控制系统分为快变量和慢变量两个子系统.在快变量子系统中以[p,q,r]为子系统输出、以计算力矩[l,m,n]为控制输入,再根据子系统输入解算出舵面偏转角,在控制律的设计中,应用动态逆理论进行输入输出线性化,再以计算力矩偏差为子系统摄动设计变结构控制律.在慢变量子系统中以[α,β,μ]为子系统输出、以[p,q,r]为控制输入,在控制律设计中,应用动态逆理论进行输入输出线性化,再以计算气动力偏差为子系统摄动设计变结构控制律.整个系统的设计中需要确定气动导数的上下界,控制律设计简单,易于工程实现.最后仿真分析得出,这种方法有较好的控制效果.     

Development programs for one‐shot systems using multiple‐state design reliability models

Design reliability at the beginning of a product development program is typically low, and development costs can account for a large proportion of total product cost. We consider how to conduct development programs (series of tests and redesigns) for one‐shot systems (which are destroyed at first use or during testing). In rough terms, our aim is to both achieve high final design reliability and spend as little of a fixed budget as possible on development. We employ multiple‐state reliability models. Dynamic programming is used to identify a best test‐and‐redesign strategy and is shown to be presently computationally feasible for at least 5‐state models. Our analysis is flexible enough to allow for the accelerated stress testing needed in the case of ultra‐high reliability requirements, where testing otherwise provides little information on design reliability change. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

基于AHP—ML Ⅱ融合算法的先验分布研究

在缺乏可靠性试验数据的情况下,为得到可信的评定结论减少主观影响,需要从信息融合的角度出发,充分利用产品先验信息。以获得关于产品可靠性的更完整和更准确的判断信息,从而进一步形成对产品性能的可靠估计或预测。提出一种基于AHP-ML II的融合算法,对先验信息进行层次分析法处理后,再使用第二类极大似然估计法进行二次处理,通过不同的信息在融合后的先验分布中所起作用的大小,确定出各部分的权重因子,最后通过实例仿真分析得出该算法确实比融合前具有更好的合理性和可靠性。     

基于观测器的某火控系统故障诊断方法

以某自行高炮火控系统为对象,研究了基于状态观测器的故障诊断方法,并作了仿真试验.通过状态观测器提取相对余差来检测和识别故障.试验结果表明,对于火控系统中可以建立数学模型的分系统或单体,基于观测器的故障诊断方法具有较好的诊断效果.该方法已成功应用于某高炮火控系统的综合检测与诊断设备中.     

软件系统的可靠性综合评估模型研究*

主要研究了软件系统可靠性的评估方法。基于软件系统的基本结构和体系,对软件系统层次可靠性进行分析,并对影响可靠性的因素进行了分析;根据各分系统失效对整体系统失效影响程度的大小,通过事件测试分析得到实际参数,在给出重要度系数的基础上,建立了串并联系统间权重系数模型,并通过Bayes分析建立了软件系统的可靠性综合评估模型,从而达到对软件系统可靠性综合评估的目的。算例表明该可靠性综合评估模型具有一定的工程应用价值。     

Two‐stage component test plans for testing the reliability of a series system

A system reliability is often evaluated by individual tests of components that constitute the system. These component test plans have advantages over complete system based tests in terms of time and cost. In this paper, we consider the series system with n components, where the lifetime of the i‐th component follows exponential distribution with parameter λ_i. Assuming test costs for the components are different, we develop an efficient algorithm to design a two‐stage component test plan that satisfies the usual probability requirements on the system reliability and in addition minimizes the maximum expected cost. For the case of prior information in the form of upper bounds on λ_i's, we use the genetic algorithm to solve the associated optimization problems which are otherwise difficult to solve using mathematical programming techniques. The two‐stage component test plans are cost effective compared to single‐stage plans developed by Rajgopal and Mazumdar. We demonstrate through several numerical examples that our approach has the potential to reduce the overall testing costs significantly. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 49: 95–116, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.1051     

基于模糊理论的武器系统可靠性分析和评价

武器系统可靠性是指在规定条件下和规定时间内完成规定功能的能力。传统的可靠性计算方法是基于概率论的,其失效概率通常应根据第一手的数据。然而,实际上不可能收集到足够的数据,一般是依靠专家的经验来判断估计,这类判断通常与模糊性密切相关。本文基于可靠性理论和模糊数学的原则和方法,建立了一套计算串联系统和并联系统的模糊可靠度的计算公式。应用模糊数对武器装备系统单元可靠性予以模糊评价,并采用模糊可靠性计算模型,对武器系统可靠性进行模糊分析和计算。通过对一高炮武器系统的应用分析,证明了该方法的可行性。     

Bayesian inference based on partial monitoring of components with applications to preventive system maintenance

Consider a binary, monotone system of n components. The assessment of the parameter vector, θ, of the joint distribution of the lifetimes of the components and hence of the reliability of the system is often difficult due to scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. For instance, prior knowledge is often of importance and can indeed conveniently be incorporated by the Bayesian approach. It may also be important to continuously extract information from a system currently in operation. This may be useful both for decisions concerning the system in operation as well as for decisions improving the components or changing the design of similar new systems. As in Meilijson [12], life‐monitoring of some components and conditional life‐monitoring of some others is considered. In addition to data arising from this monitoring scheme, so‐called autopsy data are observed, if not censored. The probabilistic structure underlying this kind of data is described, and basic likelihood formulae are arrived at. A thorough discussion of an important aspect of this probabilistic structure, the inspection strategy, is given. Based on a version of this strategy a procedure for preventive system maintenance is developed and a detailed application to a network system presented. All the way a Bayesian approach to estimation of θ is applied. For the special case where components are conditionally independent given θ with exponentially distributed lifetimes it is shown that the weighted sum of products of generalized gamma distributions, as introduced in Gåsemyr and Natvig [7], is the conjugate prior for θ. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 551–577, 2001.     

利用交互依赖活动集对C4ISR系统进行重组

一个复杂的C4ISR系统由若干子系统组成,子系统之间的交互依赖关系应该尽量少.利用活动模型构造系统的活动邻接矩阵,用图论中的路径矩阵来识别强连通子图,从而得出交互依赖活动集.具有交互依赖关系的活动尽量安排在一个子系统内部.利用这种方法来对C4ISR系统进行重组.