Arms trade,arms control,and security: Collective action issues

This article puts forth collection action as a unifying theme for the conference essays on arms trade, control, and production. For each of these topics, collective action failures are related to group size and group composition considerations. Other issues are also examined including the manner in which individual contributions determine the overall level of the associated collective good ‐ the so‐called aggregation technology of public supply. Based on alternative aggregation technologies, the game‐theoretic underpinnings of these arms issues are explored.     

单兵种对多兵种作战的最优火力分配

本文利用微分对策方法研究了单兵种对多兵种作战时的最优火力分配原则,指出了应首先集中力量攻击敌方交战强度最大的一类作战单位。本文还说明了多兵种对多兵种作战时类似的问题的重要性和困难所在。     

信息化条件下的军备控制

军备控制的目的是维护国家的安全和减少国家安全威胁.随着现代科学技术的发展和世界经济一体化进程的加快,国家安全威胁的因素与国家军事能力同步增长.尤其是现代信息技术的快速渗透和发展,不仅带来了安全隐患的增加,也加速了武器装备的更新换代,对国际军备控制产生了广泛的影响.     

Southern Africa Regional Action Programme on Light Arms and Illicit Arms Trafficking

Conclusions from the Institute for Security Studies/Saferworld Conference on Developing Controls on Arms and Illicit Trafficking in Southern Africa, Pretoria, South Africa, 3–6 May 1998     

Arms Racing and the Costs of Arms Imports: A Stochastic Model

The paper draws on the demand for arms imports model of Levine and Smith (1995, 1997) using stochastic processes of the birth-death type in steady state. It assumes two antagonistic regional players engaged in an armaments race satisfying their demand for military hardware through imports from the international market. The paper examines the effects that arms imports have on the military balance between the two recipient countries. It constructs a state space of possible outcomes in terms of the military balance/imbalance between the two countries involved. A new variable is introduced which tries to encapsulate the absolute difference in their respective security functions at any moment in time. This variable affects the transition from one state of affairs to the other.     

The Gravity of Arms

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of international arms transfers in a gravity model framework. By distinguishing between the decision to export arms (extensive margin) and the value of the arms exported (intensive margin), while also considering its interdependence, is what differentiates this paper from previous research. A theoretically justified gravity model of trade augmented with political and security motives is estimated using a two-stage panel data approach for 104 exporting countries over the period from 1950 to 2007. In addition to the usual gravity variables related to the economic mass of the trading countries and the trade cost factors, the model is extended with political and security factors. The level of democracy in both trading partners, political differences between trading partners and voting similarity with the United States in the UN General Assembly of the countries engaged in trade are the main political factors, whereas the existence of conflicts, military pacts, and embargoes are taken as security motives. The key result indicates that both political and security motives are an important determinant of an arms trade, but their effects on the extensive margin of exports (the decision to order a transfer) differs from their effect on the intensive margin (average value of exports). Moreover, the relative importance of the factors under study has changed since 1989. In the post-cold war period, countries that are less democratic are more likely to export arms, military pacts are less relevant and embargoes play a role.     

The Determinants of Arms Production

This study analyzes the determinants of arms production in 15 countries using annual panel data from 1997 to 2002. The results suggest that real GDP per capita, military expenditures, arms exports, and arms imports are positively related to arms production.     

根除美台军售 是否可能,如何可能

<正>2009年,各国经济一片鸦声中,独有我们保持了8%的GDP增长率。4月23日国际阅舰式和国庆60周年大阅兵,我们展示了令世界侧目的军力。中国强盛大国的形象已悄然在我们心底树起。2010年1月29日,奥巴马却前脚刚走下八达岭的城砖,后脚就在中国最反感的对台军售问题上打下一记重重的闷棍。而回溯历史,我们发现,自中美邦交     

根除美台军售

<正>2010年1月20日,奥巴马政府公布了新一轮对台军售清单,包括"黑鹰"直升机、"爱国者"-3防空导弹在内的武器装备总额达63.92亿美元。这一损害中方核心利益、中美合作大局的错误决定激起了中方强烈回应,要求美方停止对台军售,并将对参与售     

"越南方式"下单兵种对多兵种作战的微分对策模型

单兵种对多兵种作战的最优策略是研究多兵种对多兵种作战最优策略的基础.基于Lanchester方程,探讨了在"越南方式"下,单兵种对多兵种作战的微分对策模型的最优火力分配策略.主要运用微分对策理论对该模型进行了分析和求解.最后结合历史实际,对所得到的结论做出了符合战术意义的揭示.     

俄罗斯发展军贸的经济动因探析

尽管军火贸易动机尤其是军事大国的军贸动机都是多元的,但作为世界上最赚钱的交易之一,经济利益无疑成为世界军火贸易动因的重要组成部分。本文在对俄罗斯军贸发展现状回顾的基础上,利用计量经济学工具模型,对1992～2005年间的俄罗斯军品贸易和经济发展相关性进行了实证分析。通过实证分析得出的结论,本文进一步详细分析了俄罗斯发展军贸的深层次经济动因,如经济产业结构调整、维持就业、创造外汇、促进经济发展等。