军事冲突中战术欺骗的一个优化模型

军事冲突中实施战术欺骗已成为信息战的一个重要手段.基于军事冲突中战术欺骗所要达到的目标以及欺骗手段的资源约束和效果影响,建立了一个使军事欺骗总体效能达到最大的战术欺骗优化模型.给出的一个应用例子说明了该模型和方法的可行性.     

The impact of superpower arms transfers on conflict in the Middle East

I explore the relationship between superpower arms transfers and the Arab‐Israeli rivalry. My empirical analysis suggests that Soviet arms transfers to the Middle East, more than American transfers, have exacerbated interstate rivalry in the region. It also suggests that Soviet arms transfers, again more than American transfers, have encouraged compensatory arming by the other superpower. These conclusions derive from the results of cross‐correlation analysis, Granger‐causality tests, and variance decompositions, and are quite robust. While my findings paint a rather unflattering portrait of the effects of superpower involvement in the region, they do constitute grounds for optimism in light of current developments.     

An overview of conflict in Africa in 2014

Violent conflict escalated in Africa in 2014, with five sub-Saharan states – the Central African Republic (CAR), Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan – accounting for an estimated 75% of all conflict-related deaths on the continent. This paper provides an overview of the five major sub-Saharan African conflicts in 2014 and considers the underlying causes and dynamics in the Seleka/anti-Balaka conflict in the CAR, the Islamist threats of Boko Haram and al-Shabaab in Nigeria and Somalia, the civil war in South Sudan, and the long-running conflict between Sudan's government and southern and Darfuri rebels. The paper unpacks the general trends evident in these conflicts and the implications for the settlement thereof, including the targeting of civilians, ethnic and religious mobilisation and the state as epicentre of violence. The paper concludes with a brief look ahead to 2015.     

Walking a tightrope: the International Criminal Court and conflict prevention in Africa

Many African countries gained political independence in the 1960s. This era of independence came with promises and great expectations of economic, political and social development. Fifty years later, it is certain that the promises and expectations of independence have not been easily realised. Perennial violent conflicts have continued to ravage many countries in Africa, causing the catastrophic breakdown of law and order. Therefore, one of the major issues in conflict resolution discourse in Africa is how to develop functional mechanisms for the prevention of violent conflicts. This article examines the capacity of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to act as a mechanism for conflict prevention in Africa. Notwithstanding the doubts and uncertainties associated with the impact of law on conflict transformation, this article argues in the main that the ICC contributes to conflict prevention in Africa by expressing global norms of international law, challenging the culture of impunity in some countries, contributing to general deterrence, speedily intervening in some violent conflicts, and contributing to building some records of atrocities by identifying who did what.     

A generalized assignment model for dynamic supply chain capacity planning

We consider a generalization of the well‐known generalized assignment problem (GAP) over discrete time periods encompassed within a finite planning horizon. The resulting model, MultiGAP, addresses the assignment of tasks to agents within each time period, with the attendant single‐period assignment costs and agent‐capacity constraint requirements, in conjunction with transition costs arising between any two consecutive periods in which a task is reassigned to a different agent. As is the case for its single‐period antecedent, MultiGAP offers a robust tool for modeling a wide range of capacity planning problems occurring within supply chain management. We provide two formulations for MultiGAP and establish that the second (alternative) formulation provides a tighter bound. We define a Lagrangian relaxation‐based heuristic as well as a branch‐and‐bound algorithm for MultiGAP. Computational experience with the heuristic and branch‐and‐bound algorithm on over 2500 test problems is reported. The Lagrangian heuristic consistently generates high‐quality and in many cases near‐optimal solutions. The branch‐and‐bound algorithm is also seen to constitute an effective means for solving to optimality MultiGAP problems of reasonable size. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

加速度计动态误差系数标定的仿真研究

为了简化加速度计动态误差系数的标定过程,缩短标定试验时间,在建立加速度计动态误差数学模型的基础上,结合三轴转台模型及测试原理,一次性标定出加速度计动态误差系数,同时避免了角振动台的使用。最后利用MATLAB软件进行仿真试验,得到了较好的结果。     

动网格在仿真发射装置内弹道中的应用

介绍了动网格的更新方法,并且结合湍流模型、汽化模型在fluent平台上对内弹道进行仿真。仿真结果表明,导弹出筒速度与实际试验结果吻合程度相当好,误差在1%以内,仿真方法对实际工程有重要的指导意义。     

随舰备件动态管理及备件数量计算模型

针对精确化保障的需要,提出了一种新的随舰备件动态管理策略.基于不同型号装备中相同型号的部件可以相互替换,开发了一个能综合考虑同型号部件具有不同寿命分布、任务要求的不同工作时间等特点的随舰备件数量计算模型.并以寿命服从正态分布的部件为算例进行了备件数量计算,验证了模型的可行性.     

Force chains based mesoscale simulation on the dynamic response of Al-PTFE granular composites

Force chains based mesoscale simulation is conducted to investigate the response behavior of aluminum-polytetrafluoroethylene (Al-PTFE) granular composites under a low-velocity impact. A two-dimensional model followed the randomly normal distribution of real Al particles size is developed. The dynamic compressive process of Al-PTFE composites with varied Al mass fraction is simulated and validated against the experiments. The results indicate that, force chains behavior governed by the number and the size of agglomerated Al particles, significantly affects the impact response of the material. The failure mode of the material evolves from shear failure of matrix to debonding failure of particles with increasing density. A high crack area of the material is critical mechanism to arouse the initiation re-action. The damage maintained by force chains during large plastic strain builds up more local stresses concentration to enhance a possible reaction performance. In addition, simulation is performed with identical mass fraction but various Al size distribution to explore the effects of size centralization and dispersion on the mechanical properties of materials. It is found that smaller sized Al particle of com-posites are more preferred than its bulky material in ultimate strength. Increasing dispersed degree is facilitated to create stable force chains in samples with comparable particle number. The simulation studies provide further insights into the plastic deformation, failure mechanism, and possible energy release capacity for Al-PTFE composites, which is helpful for further design and application of reactive materials.     

运输危险品液货船气体浓度场的动态分布建模分析

分析了运输危险品液货船气体扩散源的形成、扩散源的影响因素及危险气体的迁移方式,提出了气体浓度场动态分布的数学模型,并给出了模型的解析方法.     

Influences of different crossing types on dynamic response of underground cavern subjected to ground shock

An intersecting cavern is a common structural form used in underground engineering, and its safety and stability performance directly control the service performance of the whole project. The dynamic re-sponses of the three kinds of crossing type (+-shaped, T-shaped, L-shaped) caverns subjected to ground shock were studied by numerical simulation. The velocity plus force mode boundary setting method was proposed in the coupled static and dynamic analysis of a deep underground cavern. The results show that, among the three types of crossing caverns, the+-shaped cavern is the most significantly affected by the dynamic action, followed by T-shaped, and then L-shaped caverns. The vault settlement, straight wall deformation, vault peak particle velocity, effective plastic strain of surrounding rock, and maximum principal stress and strain at the bottom of the lining of the straight wall increase with the increase of cavern span. The vault settlement, straight wall deformation, effective plastic strain of surrounding rock, and the maximum principal stress and strain at the bottom of lining to the straight wall decrease with the increase of lateral pressure coefficient, and the peak particle velocity at the vault increases. The variation is small compared with the change of cavern span. The influence range of the underground cavern intersection is two cavern diameters from the intersection centre. The bottom of the straight wall at the intersection is the weak part. It is suggested to thicken the support locally to improve the stability of the cavern.     

导弹测试系统中动态激励设备的调速控制与变频器的应用

导弹自动驾驶仪敏感部件功能状态的测试,是导弹实施综合测试内容的重要项目之一。实施敏感部件的测试的前提条件之一,是要有动态激励信号产生。产生动态激励信号的设备是动态激励装置。动态激励装置由驱动电机进行驱动。对驱动调速机构、调速原理以及变频器的应用,做出概要性阐述。     

一种基于新的冲突系数的证据组合规则

从焦元为非单元素集合的角度出发,考虑焦元之间存在相等、包含、相交的关系,对焦元mass函数进行细分计算,得到一种新的冲突系数计算方法。将该方法应用到新的证据组合规则之中,并通过数值仿真实验验证了新的证据组合规则的有效性。     

The timing of third-party intervention in social conflict

This paper analyzes how the equilibrium outcome of social conflict between factions is strategically altered by third-party intervention. We consider an intervening third party that commits financial support to one of two contending factions for reducing its cost in conflict. Within the framework of three-player sequential-move games, we investigate the questions as follows. What is the optimal intervention intensity in terms of the third party’s financial support? Is there a first-mover advantage in conflict when there is third-party intervention? Fighting against all odds, will the unsupported faction have a chance to prevail when its opponent receives third-party support? What is the optimal timing of third-party intervention? The analysis in the paper has implications for the conditions under which the strategic intervention of a third party may or may not break a conflict between factions.     

SCB型钢结构防火涂料热分解动力学模型研究

用热重法(TG)对SCB型钢结构防火涂料的热分解过程进行了分析,并用微分法中的Achar法对热分解的数据进行处理,用多种机理方程进行了拟合,发现SCB型防火涂料的热分解可分为四个阶段:第一阶段热分解属于随机核化,第二、第三、第四阶段热分解属于三维扩散,球形对称机理。     

921A钢动态屈服应力的实验研究

本文采用较为先进的实验技术——高应变率下材料的分段式Hopkinson拉杆实验(分段式—维杆拉伸实验)研究了“921A”钢在高应变速率情况下的动态屈服性能,获得了很有理论和实用价值的应变率ε—功屈服应力σ_d变化曲线。同时本文简要介绍了分段式Hopkinson拉杆实验技术的基本原理和实验方法。     

一种面向节点定位的移动信标动态路径规划方法

针对基于移动信标的传感器节点定位问题,提出一种基于在线决策的移动信标动态路径规划方法.针对以往算法大都只适用于节点均匀分布的局限,该方法用移动信标不断获取两跳范围内的未定位节点数目,并向最大覆盖未定位节点方向移动,不需要网络先验信息,即可实现路径的优化.仿真结果表明:与传统方法相比,该方法无需网络的先验信息,在移动路径长度上具有明显优越性,减少了信标的能量消耗,更适用于户外部署的大规模传感器网络.     

The National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad factor in the Mali crisis

Mali has been a battleground for more than a year now. While the armed conflict came in the aftermath of the Libyan crisis that left the regional security environment depleted, it also served as a catalyst for the collapse of state authority in Mali. This created conditions conducive for the proliferation of, and attacks by, radical religious armed groups in the northern regions of the country, including the Tuareg armed movement: the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA). But, far from being a new phenomenon, the Tuareg-led armed insurrection in the northern regions is as old as the post-colonial Malian state, and continues to pose tremendous challenges in West Africa and the Sahel region for both regional and extra-regional actors. The recent crisis in the Sahel region is seen as one of the most serious since the end of the Cold War, with anticipated dire long-term impacts on the security of the region and beyond. While attention is predominantly focused on defeating the jihadist groups that have threatened the survival of the Malian state, one must not lose sight of the fact that the ‘Tuareg Factor’, as represented by the rebellion launched by MNLA, remains critical both in terms of appreciating the deterioration of the situation and attempting to frame long-lasting solutions. The paper argues that the Tuareg's persistent recourse to rebellion against Bamako needs to be understood within a historical trajectory that takes into consideration three key parameters: firstly, the post-colonial state in Mali and its African leadership's relations with the descendants of the Tuareg communities; secondly, the amalgamation created by the so-called war on terror; and, finally, the contradictions of the democratisation process of the 1990s.¹1 This article is based on field research carried out between 2008 and 2013 on the ‘Resurgence of Tuareg-led Rebellions’.