The economic policy of acquiring foreign currency in wartime: The example of Croatia

This paper attempts to describe the methods employed by the Croatian government in order to acquire the foreign currency which was essential for strategic imports during the period 1991–1995. The starting point for this was the fact that foreign currency was in the hands of Croatian households, export companies, and Croatian companies abroad. The Croatian central bank gained access to households’ foreign currency principally by gaining their confidence. It gained access to companies’ currency by means of “export rights”, and perhaps also as a result of the integration of political and economic positions which was a relic of the former Yugoslavia.     

Contrasting the Impacts of Combat and Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief Missions on the Mental Health of Military Service Members

Abstract

We study the differential impacts of combat and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief (HA/DR) missions on the mental health of U.S. Marine Corps members. The deployment experiences of any individual Marine are plausibly random conditional on the observable characteristics which are used to assign Marines into units. Leveraging this exogenous variation, we compare the incidence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and suicide deaths among Marines who deployed to either Operation Enduring Freedom/Operation Iraqi Freedom (OEF/OIF) or HA/DR missions between 2001 and 2011. We find that the hazard of PTSD is close to eight times higher among Marines returning from OEF/OIF compared to those never deployed, and just 1.33 times higher among those returning from HA/DR (and never participated in OEF/OIF). Those returning from OEF/OIF missions are 1.81 times more likely than those never deployed to die by suicide when they were still active duty, and the hazard increases to almost 3 after they have left the military. In contrast, we find no difference in the hazards of suicide death between those that deployed to only HA/DR missions and non-deployed Marines.     

新型教学模式下教学路径探讨——基于本科教育“四个回归”

实现本科教育的“四个回归”,是新时代背景下高等本科教育教学改革应该完成的目标。要围绕学生的主体地位来建构新型教学模式下教学路径中的学生角色。学生刻苦学习是学生主体学习地位的基础,实行一定比例的淘汰制是学生刻苦学习的重要保证,助力实现“回归常识”。在教师主导课程学习的过程中,要以学生究竟能学到什么和事实上学到什么作为衡量教学效果的标准,助力实现“回归本分”。课程全过程评价方式是动态全方面的评价方式,改变了目的性极强的单一期末考试评价机制,打破了期末考试一考定成绩的传统做法,助力实现“回归初心”和“回归梦想”。     

飞船返回再入制导方法研究

本文分析研究了飞船离轨返回制动段的制导方法,提出了一种消除制动段误差对再入点状态参数影响的制动发动机综合关机方法,并对再入段的制导方法进行了分析讨论,最后进行了数值仿真分析,论证了方法的可行性。     

Does military spending stimulate growth? An empirical investigation in Italy

This paper investigates the effect of military burden on economic growth and extends previous works on the optimal size of government expenditure by exploring how external threat affects the preferences of the households and, in turn, economic growth. Post World War II Italian data are used to estimate nonlinear growth models using time-series semi-parametric methods. The estimates show that total government and civilian burdens are productive, whereas, military burden has significant effects on economic growth through the expenditure for peacekeeping missions, which reduces the insecurity in the home country. This may justify economically the current not negligible budget devoted to peacekeeping and humanitarian missions.     

A two-echelon inventory model with purchases,dispositions, shipments,returns and transshipments

This paper presents a one-period two-echelon inventory model with one warehouse in the first echelon and n warehouses in the second echelon. At the beginning of the period the stock levels at all facilities are adjusted by purchasing or disposing of items at the first echelon, returning or shipping items between the echelons and transshipping items within the second echelon. During the period, demands (which may be negative) are placed on all warehouses in the second echelon and an attempt is made to satisfy shortages either by an expedited shipment from the first echelon to the second echelon or an expedited transshipment within the second echelon. The decision problem is to choose an initial stock level at the first echelon (by a purchase or a disposition) and an initial allocation so as to minimize the initial stock movement costs during the period plus inventory carrying costs and system shortage costs at the end of the period. It is shown that the objective function takes on one of four forms, depending on the relative magnitudes of the various shipping costs. All four forms of the objective function are derived and proven to be convex. Several applications of this general model are considered. We also consider multi-period extensions of the general model and an important special case is solved explicitly.     

Correlates of Perceived Insecurity: Evidence from Pakistan

This study explores the correlates of perceived insecurity among the households in Pakistan. For this purpose, data from the third round of Pakistan Panel Household Survey are merged with terrorist incidents taken from Global Terrorism Database. The results illustrate that objective risk, signified by violence in the district of residence, and victimization play an important role in the formation of perceived insecurity. Moreover, males and residents of rural areas feel more insecure than females and urban residents, respectively. Furthermore, spatial variation in violence indicates that terrorist attacks in the first-order contiguous districts (i.e. the immediate neighbors) are also associated with subjective insecurity. These are crucial findings because behavioral changes, such as perceived insecurity, could force the households to make suboptimal investment decisions. More importantly, since changes in behavioral parameters may be highly persistent, this study cautions that violence in Pakistan may have potentially long-term impacts on social welfare.     

Value management of diagnostic equipment with cancelation,no‐show,and emergency patients

Magnetic resonance imaging and other multifunctional diagnostic facilities, which are considered as scarce resources of hospitals, typically provide services to patients with different medical needs. This article examines the admission policies during the appointment management of such facilities. We consider two categories of patients: regular patients who are scheduled in advance through an appointment system and emergency patients with randomly generated demands during the workday that must be served as soon as possible. According to the actual medical needs of patients, regular patients are segmented into multiple classes with different cancelation rates, no‐show probabilities, unit value contributions, and average service times. Management makes admission decisions on whether or not to accept a service request from a regular patient during the booking horizon to improve the overall value that could be generated during the workday. The decisions should be made by considering the cancelation and no‐show behavior of booked patients as well as the emergency patients that would have to be served because any overtime service would lead to higher costs. We studied the optimal admission decision using a continuous‐time discrete‐state dynamic programming model. Identifying an optimal policy for this discrete model is analytically intractable and numerically inefficient because the state is multidimensional and infinite. We propose to study a deterministic counterpart of the problem (i.e., the fluid control problem) and to develop a time‐based fluid policy that is shown to be asymptotically optimal for large‐scale problems. Furthermore, we propose to adopt a mixed fluid policy that is developed based on the information obtained from the fluid control problem. Numerical experiments demonstrate that this improved policy works effectively for small‐scale problems. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 287–304, 2016     

Dual criteria preemptive open-shop problems with minimum makespan

In this article we present an algorithm for the minimum makespan preemptive open shop, which is superior to existing algorithms in both space and time requirements. We define the more complex generalized open shop and flexible open shop and address the minimum makespan problem on these shops. We show how we can use the algorithm for the minimum makespan open shop to achieve load balancing in simple and generalized open shops without increasing the complexity of the algorithm. Load balancing dictates that the number of busy machines in each period is as even as possible. We also consider preventive maintenance issues in the open shop, and makespan retains its minimum value. In particular we consider the scenario where a machine can be maintained during any period that it happens to be idle. Also we consider the case that a maintenance schedule is prespecified. We show that this problem can be solved via a linear programming formulation that can also take into account release times for the jobs and ready times for the machines. Faster algorithms are presented for open shops with three machines or less. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

《鲁滨逊漂流记》中圣经原型人物简析

笛福的代表作《鲁滨逊漂流记》是现代幻想小说的开山之作。由于作者运用了多层次的圣经原型,小说文本被赋予了深刻而复杂的象征意义。对这些原型人物进行细致的文本阐释,将有助于揭示小说反映出来的作者的宗教观,甚至启蒙运动时期整个英国社会的宗教观。     

Facility location when demand is time dependent

In this article we investigate the problem of locating a facility among a given set of demand points when the weights associated with each demand point change in time in a known way. It is assumed that the location of the facility can be changed one or more times during the time horizon. We need to find the time “breaks” when the location of the facility is to be changed, and the location of the facility during each time segment between breaks. We investigate the minisum Weber problem and also minimax facility location. For the former we show how to calculate the objective function for given time breaks and optimally solve the rectilinear distance problem with one time break and linear change of weights over time. Location of multiple time breaks is also discussed. For minimax location problems we devise two algorithms that solve the problem optimally for any number of time breaks and any distance metric. These algorithms are also applicable to network location problems.     

Fire truck relocation during major incidents

The effectiveness of a fire department is largely determined by its ability to respond to incidents in a timely manner. To do so, fire departments typically have fire stations spread evenly across the region, and dispatch the closest truck(s) whenever a new incident occurs. However, large gaps in coverage may arise in the case of a major incident that requires many nearby fire trucks over a long period of time, substantially increasing response times for emergencies that occur subsequently. We propose a heuristic for relocating idle trucks during a major incident in order to retain good coverage. This is done by solving a mathematical program that takes into account the location of the available fire trucks and the historic spatial distribution of incidents. This heuristic allows the user to balance the coverage and the number of truck movements. Using extensive simulation experiments we test the heuristic for the operations of the Fire Department of Amsterdam‐Amstelland, and compare it against three other benchmark strategies in a simulation fitted using 10 years of historical data. We demonstrate substantial improvement over the current relocation policy, and show that not relocating during major incidents may lead to a significant decrease in performance.     

Periodic review inventory management with contingent use of two freight modes with fixed costs

We study a stochastic inventory model of a firm that periodically orders a product from a make‐to‐order manufacturer. Orders can be shipped by a combination of two freight modes that differ in lead‐times and costs, although orders are not allowed to cross. Placing an order as well as each use of each freight mode has a fixed and a quantity proportional cost. The decision of how to allocate units between the two freight modes utilizes information about demand during the completion of manufacturing. We derive the optimal freight mode allocation policy, and show that the optimal policy for placing orders is not an (s,S) policy in general. We provide tight bounds for the optimal policy that can be calculated by solving single period problems. Our analysis enables insights into the structure of the optimal policy specifying the conditions under which it simplifies to an (s,S) policy. We characterize the best (s,S) policy for our model, and through extensive numerical investigation show that its performance is comparable with the optimal policy in most cases. Our numerical study also sheds light on the benefits of the dual freight model over the single freight models. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Optimal job splitting on a multi‐slot machine with applications in the printing industry

In this article, we define a scheduling/packing problem called the Job Splitting Problem, motivated by the practices in the printing industry. There are n types of items to be produced on an m‐slot machine. A particular assignment of the types to the slots is called a “run” configuration and requires a setup cost. Once a run begins, the production continues according to that configuration and the “length” of the run represents the quantity produced in each slot during that run. For each unit of production in excess of demand, there is a waste cost. Our goal is to construct a production plan, i.e., a set of runs, such that the total setup and waste cost is minimized. We show that the problem is strongly NP‐hard and propose two integer programming formulations, several preprocessing steps, and two heuristics. We also provide a worst‐case bound for one of the heuristics. Extensive tests on real‐world and randomly generated instances show that the heuristics are both fast and effective, finding near‐optimal solutions. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Short‐term capacity allocation problem with tool and setup constraints

We consider a short‐term capacity allocation problem with tool and setup constraints that arises in the context of operational planning in a semiconductor wafer fabrication facility. The problem is that of allocating the available capacity of parallel nonidentical machines to available work‐in‐process (WIP) inventory of operations. Each machine can process a subset of the operations and a tool setup is required on a machine to change processing from one operation to another. Both the number of tools available for an operation and the number of setups that can be performed on a machine during a specified time horizon are limited. We formulate this problem as a degree‐constrained network flow problem on a bipartite graph, show that the problem is NP‐hard, and propose constant factor approximation algorithms. We also develop constructive heuristics and a greedy randomized adaptive search procedure for the problem. Our computational experiments demonstrate that our solution procedures solve the problem efficiently, rendering the use of our algorithms in real environment feasible. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

Risk‐sensitive sizing of responsive facilities

We develop a risk‐sensitive strategic facility sizing model that makes use of readily obtainable data and addresses both capacity and responsiveness considerations. We focus on facilities whose original size cannot be adjusted over time and limits the total production equipment they can hold, which is added sequentially during a finite planning horizon. The model is parsimonious by design for compatibility with the nature of available data during early planning stages. We model demand via a univariate random variable with arbitrary forecast profiles for equipment expansion, and assume the supporting equipment additions are continuous and decided ex‐post. Under constant absolute risk aversion, operating profits are the closed‐form solution to a nontrivial linear program, thus characterizing the sizing decision via a single first‐order condition. This solution has several desired features, including the optimal facility size being eventually decreasing in forecast uncertainty and decreasing in risk aversion, as well as being generally robust to demand forecast uncertainty and cost errors. We provide structural results and show that ignoring risk considerations can lead to poor facility sizing decisions that deteriorate with increased forecast uncertainty. Existing models ignore risk considerations and assume the facility size can be adjusted over time, effectively shortening the planning horizon. Our main contribution is in addressing the problem that arises when that assumption is relaxed and, as a result, risk sensitivity and the challenges introduced by longer planning horizons and higher uncertainty must be considered. Finally, we derive accurate spreadsheet‐implementable approximations to the optimal solution, which make this model a practical capacity planning tool.© 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Brothers in arms,yet again? Twenty-first century Sino-Russian strategic collaboration in the realm of defence and security

2014–2015 were years of turmoil for strategic relations, with Sino-Russian relations emerging as a particularly interesting set of ties to observe. This article asks whether recurrent Sino-Russian exhortations of friendship are mirrored by their strategic alignment in the defence and security realm, half a century after the end of the Sino-Soviet pact during the communist era. We examine the arms trade between the two countries and with regional partners, but also the recent pattern of bilateral and multilateral military exercises, as a combined test of the security and defence relationship. We are able to show that the image of friendship that both Moscow and Beijing like to promote, while apparent at the UN Security Council and within the BRICS group, remains constrained by rivalry in high-tech segments of the arms industry and by lingering concerns about the prospects of peer interference in their shared regional vicinity.     

A new importance sampling Monte Carlo method for a flow network reliability problem

The exact evaluation of the probability that the maximum st‐flow is greater than or equal to a fixed demand in a stochastic flow network is an NP‐hard problem. This limitation leads one to consider Monte Carlo alternatives. In this paper, we propose a new importance sampling Monte Carlo method. It is based on a recursive use of the state space decomposition methodology of Doulliez and Jamoulle during the simulation process. We show theoretically that the resulting estimator belongs to the variance‐reduction family and we give an upper bound on its variance. As shown by experimental tests, the new sampling principle offers, in many cases, substantial speedups with respect to a previous importance sampling based on the same decomposition procedure and its best performances are obtained when highly reliable networks are analyzed. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 204–228, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.10004     

Distribution free bounds for service constrained (Q,r) inventory systems

A classical and important problem in stochastic inventory theory is to determine the order quantity (Q) and the reorder level (r) to minimize inventory holding and backorder costs subject to a service constraint that the fill rate, i.e., the fraction of demand satisfied by inventory in stock, is at least equal to a desired value. This problem is often hard to solve because the fill rate constraint is not convex in (Q, r) unless additional assumptions are made about the distribution of demand during the lead‐time. As a consequence, there are no known algorithms, other than exhaustive search, that are available for solving this problem in its full generality. Our paper derives the first known bounds to the fill‐rate constrained (Q, r) inventory problem. We derive upper and lower bounds for the optimal values of the order quantity and the reorder level for this problem that are independent of the distribution of demand during the lead time and its variance. We show that the classical economic order quantity is a lower bound on the optimal ordering quantity. We present an efficient solution procedure that exploits these bounds and has a guaranteed bound on the error. When the Lagrangian of the fill rate constraint is convex or when the fill rate constraint does not exist, our bounds can be used to enhance the efficiency of existing algorithms. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 635–656, 2000