单机动诱饵诱偏反辐射导弹的命中概率分析

提出了在反辐射导弹告警系统提供反辐射导弹来袭信息的前提下,利用单个机动诱饵诱偏弦抗反辐射导弹的方案,通过理论分析和仿真试验确定了从雷达站工作换接到诱饵工作时反辐射导弹与雷达站的距离,分析了诱饵的工作频率、移动速度、移动距离、移动方向等参数。在考虑反辐射导弹航向综合误差的基础上,应用蒙特卡罗法仿真确定了反辐射导弹的命中概率。     

越肩发射火控系统的鲁棒性研究

越肩发射火控系统主要依赖机载告警设备获取后方飞机的信息.通过分析机载告警系统的误差模型,采取蒙特卡罗法对导弹命中概率进行模拟,给出了越肩发射导弹的命中概率等高线和命中概率曲面.仿真结果表明在告警设备对目标方位角测量存在误差时,越肩发射火控系统仍能保证在一定区域内以较高的概率命中目标,即输入存在干扰时,系统具有很好的鲁棒性.     

雷达间歇辐射对抗反辐射导弹作战效能分析

研究雷达间歇辐射对抗反辐射导弹(ARM)的作战效能,提出了以平均侦察时间和命中概率作为效能指标的方法.给出了平均侦察时间和命中概率的计算方法,并结合具体实例,进行了计算和仿真研究.研究结果表明雷达采用间歇辐射状态对抗ARM的方法是有效的.     

低截获概率技术对抗反辐射导弹研究

反辐射导弹的迅速发展对雷达构成了极大的威胁,研究切实可行的反辐射导弹对抗措施显得十分迫切.首先介绍了低截获概率雷达的定义;然后推导出低截获概率方程,得到雷达截获因子公式;最后根据截获因子公式,以扩谱技术、脉冲压缩和脉冲积累为例,论述低截获概率技术对抗反辐射导弹的有效性,并分别进行了仿真分析.这为雷达对抗反辐射导弹的提供了理论指导.     

攻击机无源侦察定位原理研究

机载无源定位是判断反辐射导弹是否位于攻击区的根据,阐述了装挂反辐射导弹的攻击机应用改进雷达告警器或雷达告警器交联反辐射弹对有威胁的辐射目标无源定位的原理,并对其定位精度进行了研究。     

反辐射导弹对抗舰空导弹武器系统效能分析

研究现代海战中使用反辐射导弹对抗舰空导弹武器系统的作战效能,给出舰空导弹的最大可攻击数和平均攻击数,基于反辐射导弹攻击雷达的概率和反辐射导弹被舰空导弹击落的概率,得到不使用和使用反辐射导弹两种不同情况下反舰导弹损失差异,并通过分析此差异得到反辐射导弹设计要求.     

导弹打击海上移动目标中的卫星侦察信息精度影响分析

研究卫星侦察信息精度对导弹打击海上移动目标命中概率的影响,对于提高导弹作战效能具有重要意义。根据导弹打击海上移动目标的原理,描述了其作战过程,分析了导弹命中概率影响因素,建立了基于卫星侦察信息精度的导弹命中概率计算模型,并通过蒙特卡洛方法分析了卫星侦察信息精度对导弹命中概率的影响。分析结果表明:在可接受区间内,卫星侦察信息精度对导弹命中概率的影响可以忽略,在可接受区间外,导弹命中概率随着信息精度降低而下降。     

空地ARM红外辐射特性研究

深入研究反辐射导弹的红外辐射特征,并建立其红外辐射简化模型.以导弹蒙皮、发动机尾喷管及尾喷焰作为导弹的主要红外辐射源,计算某型反辐射导弹在3μm～5μm和8 μm～12μm波段在不同方向上的红外辐射强度,并针对计算结果进行了分析,可为红外告警系统探测反辐射导弹提供一定理论依据.     

通用导弹告警设备的试验和研究

导弹在进攻时,其截面相当于一个偶极子天线或单根箔条,利用导弹对特定频率雷达信号的谐振特性来增大目标的散射截面积。通过反辐射导弹告警实验设备系统的实弹打靶试验,验证了该理论的正确性和可行性。     

激光驾束制导炮射导弹远距离命中概率分析

根据100mm和105mm炮射导弹武器系统的射击特点和工作状态,分析了炮射导弹远距离射击时影响命中概率的主要因素,对武器系统炮射导弹射击命中概率进行了仿真计算,最后根据技术分析的结果,提出了控制影响命中率的误差源的技术措施.     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

India's counter-insurgency experience: the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy

The Indian Army, a force trained primarily for conventional warfare, has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s. Despite such a long innings on a counter-insurgency mode, little attention has been accorded within military circles to doctrinal innovation for waging sub-conventional warfare in India's democratic political context. At best, the Army continues to view counter-insurgency duty as secondary to its primary duty of defending India from external conventional threats. By conceptualizing a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’, this article aims to fill this critical doctrinal gap in India's military policy. The author argues that a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’ based on democratic political culture, measured military methods, special counter-insurgency forces, local social and cultural awareness and an integrative nation-building approach will result in positive handling of India's internal security problems. The author utilizes India's counter-insurgency experiences in Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation ‘Sadhbhavana’ in Jammu and Kashmir as illustrative empirical indicants in order to validate the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.