基于最优未知输入观测器的BIT降虚警技术

针对基于模型的机电控制系统BIT中的虚警问题,分析了系统中的信息不确定性和产生虚警的机理,基于最优未知输入观测器方法设计了BIT故障检测诊断系统,该系统对信息不确定性具有较强的鲁棒性,能够充分地抑制虚警。在某机电跟踪与稳定伺服平台BIT系统上进行了试验研究,结果表明机理分析正确,所提方法有效。     

雷达智能BIT故障预测方法研究

在总结了几种比较常见的故障预测方法的基础上,介绍了基于统计学习理论的支持向量回归算法。提出将智能遗传算法用来对支持向量回归模型的参数进行优化选取,并详细介绍了模型参数的选取过程,避免了参数的盲目设置。将建立起来的模型应用于雷达智能BIT故障预测领域,并以一组智能BIT状态监测的数据对预测模型进行训练和验证,实验结果表明支持向量回归模型能有效地对雷达故障进行预测。     

三态部件的可靠性分析

本文给出完备的三态部件的可靠性模型类。从静态的观点来看,三态部件的可靠性模型有两类：（１）成功,降格成功,失败;（２）成功,双失败。从动态的观点来看,考虑到三个状态之间的转化关系,其模型类相对复杂;但是在失败率λ、维修率μ为常数的条件下,只需六个参数（λ１λ２λ３μ１μ２μ３）,便可以用马尔可夫模型给出三态部件的可靠性统一模型,并给出部件在三状态的概率函数Ｐｉ（ｔ）的解析表达式（ｔ为时间,ｉ表示状态）。     

基于功能块的分离测试生成

通过扩展电路分离描述模型,提出了一种含三态门结构和时钟线故障的层次测试生成策略,试图探求一种有效的、实用的时序电路测试生成方法。     

涡轮泵状态监控及传感器故障识别的新异类检测方法

为了在故障样本稀缺、故障模式不完备的情况下监控涡轮泵状态,并剔除传感器失效故障造成的虚警,提出用于涡轮泵状态监控及传感器故障识别的单类支持向量机新异类检测方法。该方法以正常状态为目标类构建单类支持向量机检测器,用于检测涡轮泵是否出现异常;以传感器故障为目标类构建单类支持向量机检测器,用于判断检测到的异常是否属于传感器故障。对涡轮泵试车数据的分析结果表明了该方法的有效性。     

基于多状态故障树的舰船装备可靠性分析方法

为分析舰船装备的系统和单元部件介于正常和故障之间的中间过渡状态,结合实际工作情况,提出了一种基于多状态故障树的可靠性分析方法。以舰船电力系统为例,将传统故障树模型的底层事件布尔单元改进为可维修的三态（正常、劳损降级和故障）单元部件;结合智能体董正琼技术建立该多状态故障树仿真模型,各事件之间的从属关系采用抽象映射进行描述;通过多次蒙特卡洛仿真运行,根据各底事件发生概率定量计算出电力系统的可靠度统计值为99.624%,在一定程度上验证了所提可靠性分析方法的可行性。     

潜在故障状态可测的一种故障检查模型

从系统的功能故障状态和潜在故障状态两方面讨论了故障检查模型,基于延迟时间模型推导了系统的期望可用度模型并对其适用性进行了讨论与验证。     

基于Maxwell2D和Simplorer的永磁同步电机退磁模型设计

永磁体退磁故障是永磁电机的常见故障,对电机退磁故障进行早期检测和诊断可以有效防止灾难发生,具有重大意义。建立不均匀退磁故障状态下的Maxwell2D电机模型,利用仿真软件Maxwell2D与Simplorer构建永磁同步电机联合仿真系统,分别对电机的正常状态模型与退磁故障模型进行仿真,并对相电流信号进行分析。利用EMD-LSSVM变换建立的故障诊断模型对不同程度的退磁故障进行诊断。仿真结果表明:该模型可以精确地识别出微弱的退磁故障,验证了联合仿真退磁模型的正确性。     

软件可靠性评估技术研究

MTBF,初始故障数N,故障暴露率K,一次运行的成功率θ是软件可靠性的基本参数,也是反映软件可靠性的关键因素.在理论分析和工程应用实验基础上,给出了这些参数的计算方法.     

神经网络技术在智能BIT故障诊断系统中的应用

论述了智能BIT的智能设计、智能检测、智能诊断和智能决策,构建了基于神经网络的某高炮装备随动系统的智能BIT故障诊断系统。用Multisim进行电路仿真,提取输出信号的均值、峭度、偏斜度构成三维向量,以它作为特征向量利用神经网络进行模拟电路的故障诊断。通过比较BP神经网络、SOM神经网络和小波神经网络的诊断结果,得知利用均值、峭度和偏斜度作为特征,BP神经网络和SOM神经网络能够有效识别故障状态模式。     

Minimizing the false alarm rate in systems with transient abnormality

We consider a stochastic partially observable system that can switch between a normal state and a transient abnormal state before entering a persistent abnormal state. Only the persistent abnormal state requires alarms. The transient and persistent abnormal states may be similar in appearance, which can result in excess false alarms. We propose a partially observable Markov decision process model to minimize the false alarm rate, subject to a given upper bound on the expected alarm delay time. The cost parameter is treated as the Lagrange multiplier, which can be estimated from the bound of the alarm delay. We show that the optimal policy has a control‐limit structure on the probability of persistent abnormality, and derive closed‐form bounds for the control limit and present an algorithm to specify the Lagrange multiplier. We also study a specialized model where the transient and persistent abnormal states have the same observation distribution, in which case an intuitive “watchful‐waiting” policy is optimal. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 320–334, 2016     

采用神经网络技术降低机电设备BIT虚警

机电设备 Ｂ Ｉ Ｔ 的突出问题是虚警率高，重要原因之一是 Ｂ Ｉ Ｔ 系统传感器通路故障。本文选取神经网络技术进行传感器通路故障诊断，剖析某大型船舶动力装置机电设备 Ｂ Ｉ Ｔ 系统中传感器通路的故障机理和类型，得到其故障样本数据，经过神经网络学习训练后对实际系统进行故障诊断和识别，实验结果表明该方法简洁、有效，能够有效地诊断故障并识别出故障类型，具有实用价值。     

基于TSMD-SVM-HMM的机内测试智能降虚警方法

机内测试虚警问题是影响系统完好性和使用保障费用的重要因素。针对环境因素导致的虚警问题,设计了时间环境应力测量装置,应用支持向量机的小样本学习优点,建立虚警与环境因素的关联关系,应用隐马尔可夫模型的连续动态信号处理能力,描述系统长期工作历程中虚警的发生规律,提出了基于时间环境应力测量装置-支持向量机-隐马尔可夫模型的机内测试智能降虚警方法。最后,在某型直升机航向姿态系统上进行了应用与验证,试验结果表明:该方法有效识别出了机内测试的虚警。     

火控系统BIT设计与实现

采用层级BIT设计架构,建立了系统级和模块级BIT系统设计模型。设计了PBIT、CBIT、IBIT测试项探测函数、恢复函数等节点属性的统一数据结构。引入故障树理论设计了PBIT、CBIT、IBIT通用自动遍历故障树测试算法,可以实现多种火控系统的"自下而上"的节点测试和"自上而下"的故障诊断。在某火控系统预研项目的应用表明,本BIT系统的设计方案合理可行,易于维护,可显著提高通用火控系统的测试性和可靠性。     

基于灰色关联度和模糊贴近度的复杂设备瞬态虚警辨识

分析了电子设备和武器装备的ＢＩＴ系统虚警形式之一——瞬态虚警的产生原因和一般的预防措施；提出运用灰色关联度和模糊贴近度对瞬态虚警进行辨识并给出了这两种方法的基本原理；分别采用数值模拟和物理模拟的手段，获得了具有温度、湿度、振动（电源）三环境参数系统的状态变化样本群，以及因振动（电源）参数突变而产生的瞬态虚警样本；运用灰色关联度和模糊贴近度方法识别虚警及产生虚警的环境因素，结果表明两种方法可以胜任要求。     

Optimal inspection under semi-markovian deterioration: Basic results

This article develops a model for determining the optimal inspection schedule for a system which deteriorates according to a semi-Markov process that progresses through three states: good, defective, and bad. A binary test is used, and false positives may occur. A true positive results in an action that reduces the likelihood of entering the bad state, but at most one such corrective action can occur during the lifetime of the system. Costs are associated with each inspection, each false positive, the corrective action, and the entrance into the bad state. Dynamic programming is used to compute the minimum expected cost, which is a function of the age of the system. The optimal inspection schedule is readily derived from this value function. Computational examples are provided. This model is appropriate for medical screening or for a mission where there is only one spare part.     

Model parameter estimation and residual life prediction for a partially observable failing system

We consider a partially observable degrading system subject to condition monitoring and random failure. The system's condition is categorized into one of three states: a healthy state, a warning state, and a failure state. Only the failure state is observable. While the system is operational, vector data that is stochastically related to the system state is obtained through condition monitoring at regular sampling epochs. The state process evolution follows a hidden semi‐Markov model (HSMM) and Erlang distribution is used for modeling the system's sojourn time in each of its operational states. The Expectation‐maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to estimate the state and observation parameters of the HSMM. Explicit formulas for several important quantities for the system residual life estimation such as the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived in terms of the posterior probability that the system is in the warning state. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the estimation procedure and failure prediction method. A comparison results with hidden Markov modeling are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 190–205, 2015     

频率捷变雷达干扰方法分析

频率捷变雷达有许多其它雷达无法比拟的优点,在现代雷达体制中占有重要地位。分析了频率捷变雷达的特点,根据其工作原理,提出了干扰频率捷变雷达的几种方法,分析了各自的优点和局限性。阐述了干扰方法的原理及实现的技术途径,并给出了有关参数的计算方法和实例。     

Machine sequencing: Disjunctive graphs and degree-constrained subgraphs

In two earlier papers, we proposed algorithms for finding an optimal sequence of processing m items on q machines, by finding a minimaximal path in a disjunctive network. In a third paper, this latter model was generalized (from 2-state to 3-state disjunctive graphs) so as to accommodate project scheduling with resource constraints. In this paper, we discuss another algorithm for the (2-state) disjunctive network problem, closely related to those mentioned above. To make the paper self-contained, section 2 briefly describes the problem. Section 3 introduces a class of constraints which forms the basis of the algorithm discussed in section 4. The constraints have only 1, ?1, or 0 as coefficients on the left-hand side, integers on the right-hand side. The whole procedure of generating these constraints and finding a feasible solution whenever a new constraint is added, can be interpreted (section 5) as a process of generating a graph with degree-constraints on its nodes, and then finding a subgraph satisfying the degree-constraints. The nodes of the graph are generated by solving a critical-path-problem, the feasible subgraphs are found by implicit enumeration.