索契冬奥会安保措施探析

奥运会是世界上规模和影响力最大的体育赛事,因其具有参与人员多、受关注程度高等特点,极易成为恐怖袭击的目标.分析索契冬奥会面临的主要安全威胁和成功举办的安保经验,探讨我国举办冬奥会等大型活动的安保措施。     

吉祥福娃问世

2005年11月11日晚,北京奥组委在北京工人体育馆举行北京奥运会倒计时1000天暨北京奥运吉祥物发布仪式。全国政协主席贾庆林为北京奥运会吉祥物揭幕——五个颜色不同、形态各异、活泼可爱的福娃成为北京2008年第29届奥运会吉祥物。     

后奥运经济形势分析

北京自2001年7月13日获得2008年奥运会举办权以来,至今已经过去了7年。通过七年奥运会的筹办．借势发展奥运经济,北京奥运会筹办推动了中国经济增长和相关产业发展。奥运会后,奥运经济对中国经济整体影响有限,对一些行业．会产生一些积极或消极影响。     

北京奥运无与伦比

随着熊熊燃烧了16天的奥运会主火炬在"鸟巢"熄灭,北京2008年奥运会圆满落下了帷幕,但北京呈现给世界的精彩却将长存于人们心中。"这是一届真正的不同凡响的奥运会,北京奥运无与伦比",在奥运会闭幕式上,国际奥委会主席罗格对这届奥运会作出了高度评价。请看本刊根据《人民日报》、新华社有关报道汇集的这篇——     

北京奥运会一体化安全保卫指挥探析

北京奥运会一体化安全保卫指挥是一个全新课题,就北京奥运会一体化安全保卫指挥的基本内涵、基本要素、主要内容进行了初步探讨.     

保奥运盛会平安 展首都民兵风采

北京奥运会召开期间,首善之区民兵全面贯彻北京市委、市政府《关于深入开展“平安奥运行动”的意见》精神,确保奥运会绝对安全。东城区民兵积极参加奥运安保、环境整治争奥运志愿者等活动,以过硬的素质配合公安民警维持治安．确保北京奥运会的顺利进行。     

海淀区人武部组织民兵预备役人员积极开展奥运安保训练

尽管北京奥运会竞技场上的发令枪尚未响起,但奥运安保工作的序幕已经拉开。随着北京奥运会开幕式倒计时的数字越来越小,奥运安保问题也越来越受到关注。经验表明,奥运会不仅是各国运动员在竞技场上大显身手、获取名次的拼争,更是对东道主安全保卫能力的综合检验。为此,     

警卫系圆满完成奥运安保警卫任务

武警学院警卫系参加奥运会安保人员,历时一个多月,圆满完成了北京奥运会要人安全警卫任务。8月26日,全体执勤人员凯旋,受到学院领导及全院教职工热烈欢迎。期间,他们在北京奥运会要人安全警卫指挥部的统一要求和部署下,先后完成了党和国家领导人及布什、普京、布朗等外国政要的现场警卫任务。     

2000工兵严防恐怖爆炸袭击——总参军训和兵种部工程兵局局长王殿华谈奥运安保

“2008年是强化奥运安保训练和演练、检验部队实战能力的关键之年,而反恐怖是奥运安保的重中之重。据统讥爆炸是恐怖分子使用次数最多、破坏奥运会的常用手段之一。鉴于此,解放军担负奥运安保任务的工程兵部队就围绕严防爆炸恐怖袭击进行了紧张训练和严密部署。就此问题,记者近日专访了总参军训和兵种部工程兵局局长王殿华大校。     

2007-2017年全球巴士恐怖袭击事件分析及应对之策

系统分析近10年全球巴士恐怖袭击事件的总体情况和事件要素,基于爆炸恐怖袭击事件要素进行分析,研究巴士恐怖袭击事件的应对之策。     

网络恐怖主义对北京奥运安全的危害及其对策

近年来,网络恐怖主义对奥运安全的危害越来越引起国内和国际社会的广泛关注。当前,北京奥运会也面临着来自网络恐怖主义的威胁。为此,有必要通过转变观念、加强公安网监部门的作用、提高网络系统的安全性、加强国内立法和国际合作等方式来进一步增强北京奥运会防范网络恐怖主义威胁的能力。     

Weakest‐link attacker‐defender games with multiple attack technologies

In this article, we examine a model of terrorism that focuses on the tradeoffs facing a terrorist organization that has two qualitatively different attack modes at its disposal. The terrorist organization's objective is to successfully attack at least one target. Success for the target government is defined as defending all targets from any and all attacks. In this context, we examine how terrorist entities strategically utilize an efficient but discrete attack technology — e.g., suicide attacks — when a more conventional mode of attack is available, and the optimal anti‐terrorism measures.© 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

SUICIDE TERRORISM AND THE BACKLASH EFFECT

This paper presents a game‐theoretic model of suicide terrorism containing three agents: the terrorist leader; a targeted government; and potential terrorist supporters. Supporters join the terrorist group if they gain more from their participation than from their economic opportunities. Preemptive measures by the government can result in a backlash that encourages recruitment through new grievances. Suicide attacks can also lead to recruitment. Increases in preemption costs and/or economic opportunities can reduce the overall level of terrorism, while increasing the proportion of suicide to normal attacks. An increase in the effect of preemption on recruitment, or the propaganda effect of suicide bombings has the opposite effect of increasing normal and suicide attacks, but decreasing the proportion of suicide to normal attacks in the terrorist organization’s strategy profile.     

The Randomization of Terrorist Attacks

The purpose of this article is to explore the economic theoretical foundations of the idea that rational terrorist organizations deliberately randomize their attacks (by type, timing, location, and targets) to generate uncertainty and intimidation. A choice theoretic framework is applied to the analysis of the terrorist organization's behavior to determine whether welfare (utility) gains from the randomization of terrorist attacks are plausible and feasible. The randomization of attacks can appear to promise higher amounts of political influence for each resource input but it turns out that randomization cannot manufacture a situation where higher amounts of political influence are obtained for each resource input.The results imply that, rather than randomization and instability, the rational terrorist organization is more likely to prefer stability. The findings and implications provide a theoretical explanation for the non-randomness of terrorist attacks.Thismay be one small step towards explaining the patterns – non-randomness – in the time-series of terrorist incidents.     

恐怖活动中公众心理恐惧效应对社会稳定的影响及对策

恐怖活动往往导致公众的巨大心理恐惧效应,极易造成一定程度甚至是大规模的社会恐慌,严重影响社会稳定。因此,降低公众对恐怖袭击活动的心理恐惧效应、提高其心理承受能力,对恐怖活动发生时维护社会稳定具有重要意义。     

A cost–benefit analysis of terrorist attacks

A cost–benefit analysis of terrorist attacks is developed and placed within a systematic theoretical structure. For the target or object of the attack, we consider the lost value of human lives, lost economic value, and lost influence value, counted as benefits for the terrorist. The corresponding losses for the terrorist are counted as costs. The terrorist attacks if benefits outweigh costs. Bounded rationality is enabled where the three kinds of benefits and costs can be weighted differently. We account for two ex ante probabilities of successful planning and attack, and enable the terrorist to assign different weights to its multiple stakeholders. We introduce multiple time periods, time discounting, attitudes towards risk, and subcategories for the benefits and costs. The cost–benefit analysis is illustrated with the 11 September 2001 attack, and 53 incidents in the Global Terrorism Database yielding both positive and negative expected utilities. The paper is intended as a tool for scientists and policy-makers, as a way of thinking about costs and benefits of terrorist attacks.     

做好奥运出入境边防检查工作之管见

确保奥运会安全、顺利、成功举办,是当前压倒一切的政治任务,全国边防检查机关广大官兵要提高思想认识,加强组织领导,加大各项工作力度,真正做到“服务更加亲切,管控更加严密”,推动边检服务工作再上新台阶。     

The ballot or the bomb belt: the roots of female suicide terrorism before and after 9/11

ABSTRACT

In recent years, an upward trend in terrorist attacks has mirrored an increase in suicide attacks. According to our preliminary analysis, the events of September 11^th marked a sea change in the number of terrorist attacks. While a rich literature has evaluated why terrorists participate in suicide attacks, none have considered the uptick in volume after 9/11, and fewer yet have considered how female fighters may be contributing to this. We evaluate how both structural and female-specific factors affect the likelihood of female fighter suicide attacks. Recent literature discovered a trend in terrorist groups using females as suicide bombers due to cultural norms that permit them to get closer to targets. We test our theory using data from the Chicago Project on Security and Threats Suicide Attack Database (CPOST-SAD) and various datasets from the Quality of Government (QOG) compendium for the 1986–2016 time period. We construct a series of models that consider both female-specific and structural factors that could explain variation in the number of female suicide attacks. Our results indicate that our models encompass relatively stable patterns. Female political empowerment, female educational attainment, and female employment rates are significant and positive in our post-9/11 models, indicating that they may increase female suicide attacks. Democracy is a relevant structural factor and generally yields a positive effect on female suicide attacks across both time periods and multiple models. Ethnic fractionalization is significant in both time periods but yields a negative effect before 9/11 and a positive effect in the later period.     

“费太因”式恐怖袭击的主要特点及对策

＂费太因＂式恐怖袭击手段残忍、破坏性大、轰动性强,已经成为恐怖分子实施暴力破坏活动的重要手段。科学地分析＂费太因＂式恐怖袭击的主要特点,为有效打击此类恐怖袭击寻找科学的方法和措施,从而给恐怖分子以沉重的打击。