Rebels of the frontier: origins,organization, and recruitment of the Pakistani Taliban

The Pakistani Taliban, factionalized into some 40 groups, form a decentralized insurgent movement, often characterized by infighting, divergent motivations, and a shifting web of alliances. The Pakistani Taliban remain little understood because most scholars have avoided a serious treatment of the insurgent movement and instead focused on analyzing the geopolitics of the region and Pakistan's ‘double game’. This article seeks to fill this gap by dissecting the movement through selected theories of organization and mobilization. First, I explain the various dimensions of the conflict and the origins of the insurgency. Next, I discuss the Pakistani Taliban's political organization, categorizing it as composed of various warlord regimes. I further list the Taliban's component groups and numerical strength and chart the leadership structure. Lastly, I analyze insurgent recruitment strategies, accounting for the role of selective incentives, coercion, and genuine grievances.     

Escalation and de-escalation of violence in insurgencies: Insights from Northeast India

Insurgencies in the Northeast of India have been a recurring phenomenon since India's independence in 1947. One of the most significant aspects of the multiple insurgencies has been the use of violence for political goals. By drawing upon three cases of insurgencies in Northeast India, the article offers a conceptual framework on escalation and de-escalation of violence in insurgencies. The article argues that the most critical variables which have a direct bearing on the levels of insurgent violence are: popular support, loss of legitimacy and the state's counter-response.     

Command Coordination and Tactical Effectiveness in Counter-insurgency Operations: Lessons from the South Korean Campaign

This article analyzes the causes of combat effectiveness of the South Korean security forces through the course of its various counter-insurgency (COIN) operations from 1948 to 1953. We argue that improvements in two interrelated aspects ultimately resulted in higher operational and tactical level performance: unified operational command structure and the subsequent improvements in tactical efficiency under the guidance of the US advisory mission. Through an in-depth case study on how a nascent army improved its capacity in combating homegrown insurgencies, we demonstrate how the actual conduct of operations itself remains just as significant in the assessment of overall COIN outcomes.     

On the behavior and shape of mixture failure rates from a family of IFR Weibull distributions

Populations of many types of component are heterogeneous and often consist of a small number of different subpopulations. This is called a mixture and it arises in a number of situations. For example, a majority of products in industrial populations are mixtures of defective items with shorter lifetimes and standard items with longer lifetimes. It is a well‐known result that distributions with decreasing failure rates are closed under mixture. However, mixtures of distributions with increasing failure rates are not easily classifiable. If the subpopulations involved in the mixture have increasing failure rates, there might be some upward movement in the mixture and later a general downward pull towards the strongest component. Little work has been done in describing the shape of mixture failure rates when all subpopulations do not have decreasing failure rate. In this paper, we present general results that describe the shape and behavior of a failure rate of a mixture obtained from two Weibull subpopulations with strictly increasing failure rates. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Involving the elephant: technical isolation and the role of India in a possible solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis

Apart from North Korea, no state's nuclear program in the twenty-first century has raised more concern to international security than Iran's. While Iran insists that its nuclear program is strictly for civilian purpose in line with Article IV of non-proliferation treaty, the USA and its allies insist that Iran has military intentions and called for sanctions. The failure of sanctions to deter Iran from its nuclear agenda had made many scholars and policy-makers call for a preemptive attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Situated within this debate, this paper positions itself as an antagonist to the preemptive airstrike option and argues that involving India in a possible nuclear “iron curtain” against Iran – a move known as technical isolation – remains the best option to the current nuclear crises.     

对几种预警探测方式问题研究

随着高科技武器装备在战争中的使用,预警探测问题也越来越重要,如何更好地运用预警探测装备已经成为预警探测能力的“瓶颈”。结合实际,对几种装备的预警探测问题进行了分析,研究了舰载直升机、雷达哨舰及侦察机等预警探测设备的战术运用,最后给出了这几种预警探测装备的合理战术运用方法。     

基于模糊层次分析法的航天测控方案优选决策

分析了航天测控任务重要度的影响因素,运用模糊层次分析法研究了航天测控任务方案的优选决策问题,详细分析了方案重要度排序的计算步骤,并通过实例计算证明了方法的简单可行性,该方法在处理航天测控冲突时有一定的应用价值。     

战争系统复杂性及其基于Agent建模仿真研究进展

复杂性科学是当今世界科学发展的热点和前沿,其研究与应用正迅速向各个学科渗透和扩展,成为备受众多领域科学家关注的交叉学科研究领域.目前,在军事科学领域,战争复杂性的问题正日益受到学者们的广泛关注.应用复杂系统建模与仿真方法对战争复杂性问题进行建模与仿真研究是一种有别于传统的基于兰切斯特方程等数学模型方法研究战争问题的一种新方法.讨论了战争系统复杂性问题,在掌握现有资料的基础上,力图较全面介绍国内外关于基于Agent战争系统复杂性建模与仿真方面的最新研究进展,并对相关的研究成果给出了自己的看法.     

Resistance of grid steel-tube-confined concrete targets against projectile impact: Experimental investigation and analytical engineering model

Steel-tube-confined concrete (STCC) targets are provided with excellent anti-penetration performance over semi-infinite concrete (SIC) targets since the steel tube imposes passive restraint on the in-filled concrete during the penetration process. Grid STCC system with square steel tubes is a potential solution to protective structures. In this paper, experiments of 9-cell grid STCC targets penetrated by 12.7 mm Armor Piercing Projectile (APP) were performed. The influence of side length and thickness of steel tube, steel ratio and impact velocity on anti-penetration performance were taken into account. Additionally, single-cell square STCC targets were also designed and tested for comparison with the 9-cell grid STCC targets. Damage modes and parameters of the tested targets were measured and discussed. Moreover, the stiffness of radial confinement of grid STCC targets is achieved according to the elastic solution of infinite cylindrical shell in Winkler medium. Furthermore, the penetration resistance and depth of penetration (DOP) for grid STCC targets are obtained on the basis of the dynamic finite spherical cavity-expansion (FSCE) models including radial confinement effect. It is shown that the 9-cell grid STCC targets with optimal dimension match of thickness and side length of steel tube can reduce the DOP by about 17 % and 23 % in comparison with the SIC targets and single-cell square STCC targets, respectively, due to both the confinement of square steel tube to concrete in the impacted cell and the additional confinement of the surrounding cells to the impacted cell; the penetration resistance and DOP of the grid and cellular STCC targets with similar steel ratio is close, and thus the grid STCC targets with simpler manufacturing process and excellent in-plane expandability are preferred in engineering practice; moreover, the predicted results of DOP model based on the FSCE models agree well with the tested results with the maximum disparity less than 12 % and the proposed model is more applicable to the grid and cellular STCC targets with high radial confinement.     

分布孔径红外系统的研究现状及其展望

介绍了分布孔径红外系统 ( DAIRS)的基本概念与研制现状 ,讨论了DAIRS在先进战斗机及其它作战平台上的应用 ,并简略介绍了其中涉及的关键技术 ,对 DAIRS系统将来可能的发展趋势作了预测。     

舰载红外搜索与跟踪系统的最新现状与发展趋势

详细介绍了国外舰载红外搜索与跟踪系统的研制与装备,包括各国典型系统的特点、研制历史、试验以及装舰服役现状等,提出了舰载红外搜索与跟踪系统的未来发展方向。     

舰艇编队海上运输补给物资需求预测方法

按照是否与任务、事件相关,将物资需求分为两类,对于任务、事件相关物资需求的预测,将任务进行合理的分解,并根据物资消耗与任务、事件之间的关系,给出了预测的一般模型;对于与任务、事件联系不紧密的物资需求的预测,则根据历史经验及该物资固有的消耗规律,提出了经验预测模型。为了解决舰艇编队海上运输补给物资需求预测所存在的问题,利用案例推理的方法生成了预测所需的样本数据,以最小二乘向量机(LSSVM)模型为预测模型,并以岛屿进攻作战的防空弹药需求预测为例进行了实例分析。结果表明:案例推理生成的样本数据可用,选用LSSVM模型的预测结果与其他预测模型表现出了一致性,但LSSVM相对误差较小;该方法在某种程度上解决了样本数据有限的问题,适用于作战物资需求的预测问题。     

Static and free vibration analyses of functionally graded porous variable-thickness plates using an edge-based smoothed finite element method

The main purpose of this paper is to present numerical results of static bending and free vibration of functionally graded porous (FGP) variable-thickness plates by using an edge-based smoothed finite element method (ES-FEM) associate with the mixed interpolation of tensorial components technique for the three-node triangular element (MITC3), so-called ES-MITC3. This ES-MITC3 element is performed to eliminate the shear locking problem and to enhance the accuracy of the existing MITC3 element. In the ES-MITC3 element, the stiffness matrices are obtained by using the strain smoothing technique over the smoothing domains formed by two adjacent MITC3 triangular elements sharing an edge. Materials of the plate are FGP with a power-law index (k) and maximum porosity distributions (Ω) in the forms of cosine functions. The influences of some geometric parameters, material properties on static bending, and natural frequency of the FGP variable-thickness plates are examined in detail.     

The Power of the NPT: International Norms and Ukraine's Nuclear Disarmament

ABSTRACT

There is a lingering disagreement among scholars on how the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) affects nonproliferation and disarmament outcomes. Drawing on constructivist scholarship on international norms, this article examines the extent of the NPT's effect in the case of Ukraine's nuclear disarmament. In the wake of the Soviet Union's collapse, Ukraine found itself host to the world's third largest nuclear arsenal. Despite Ukraine's initial commitment to become a non-nuclear state, it proceeded along a difficult path toward NPT accession. Most controversial and directly at odds with the NPT was Ukraine's claim to ownership of its nuclear inheritance as a successor state of the Soviet Union. This article argues that, while much domestic discourse about the fate of these nuclear weapons was embedded in the negotiation of Ukraine's new identity as a sovereign state vis-à-vis Russia and the West, the NPT played an important, structural role by outlining a separate normative space for nuclear weapons and providing the grammar of denuclearization with which Ukraine's decision makers had to grapple.     

When Programming Trumps Policy and Plans: The Case of the US Department of the Navy11

Traditionally, policy and planning have been institutionally weak in the Naval Staff (Office of the Chief of Naval Operations – OPNAV). In their place, the N8 (Programming) has dominated resource decision-making, and, by default, decisions relating to policy and planning. Recent uncertainty over defense authorization and appropriations has resulted in calls for a greater role to be played by the N3/5, Policy and Plans Directorate. The article argues that reform of the Department of the Navy’s planning process is urgently needed. OPNAV’s weak planning and overly dominant programming practices are compared with those of the Departments of the Army and Air Force and are shown to be out of conformance with them. The article concludes with specific and detailed recommendations for reform of both the current planning and programming processes.     

利用线阵CCD自动测量MSBS中悬浮模型的位置与姿态

以我国自行研制的磁悬挂天平系统为背景,主要研究了利用线阵CCD传感器构建MSBS的模型位置与姿态测量系统以及相应的传感器配置方案、信号转换、测量原理和测量流程等问题。该系统的位置与姿态测量系统以两组共5片线阵CCD作为MSBS中悬浮模型的5自由度位置与姿态传感器,以串联的多级惯性环节电路为脉宽-电压转换电路,将测量信号分别输入控制回路和校准测量回路。文中详细介绍了5片CCD传感器的配置方案及其测量原理,然后研究了使用多级惯性环节实现脉宽-电压信号的转换问题,并对该方案进行了理论分析和仿真,最后研究了利用CCD的测量信号反演悬浮模型位置与姿态的数学原理及其自动测量流程。     

Evaluating methods for the reliability of a large 2‐dimensional rectangular k‐within‐consecutive‐(r,s)‐out‐of‐(m,n):F system

A 2‐dimensional rectangular k‐within‐consecutive‐(r, s)‐out‐of‐(m, n):F system consists of m × n components, and fails if and only if k or more components fail in an r × s submatrix. This system can be treated as a reliability model for TFT liquid crystal displays, wireless communication networks, etc. Although an effective method has been developed for evaluating the exact system reliability of small or medium‐sized systems, that method needs extremely high computing time and memory capacity when applied to larger systems. Therefore, developing upper and lower bounds and accurate approximations for system reliability is useful for large systems. In this paper, first, we propose new upper and lower bounds for the reliability of a 2‐dimensional rectangular k‐within‐consecutive‐(r, s)‐out‐of‐(m, n):F system. Secondly, we propose two limit theorems for that system. With these theorems we can obtain accurate approximations for system reliabilities when the system is large and component reliabilities are close to one. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

基于可拓方法的C3I作战方案生成与评价

作战指挥决策支持系统是指挥自动化系统的重要组成部分,作战方案生成与评价是作战指挥决策支持系统的基本功能.根据作战指挥决策支持系统特点将可拓方法应用于作战方案生成与评价,并分析了其优势所在.结合空战案例运用发散树方法进行作战方案集的开拓,并利用优度评价方法进行作战方案的评价,从而得到最佳作战方案.     

The Sword of General Sir William Fenwick Williams,Baronet of Kars,in the Royal Armouries (IX.1841) and Aspects of High Victorian Sword Design

Abstract

The Sword of Honour (RA IX.1841) presented in 1856 by the Province of Nova Scotia to its native son, General Sir William Fenwick Williams, Bart. for his deeds at Kars, Turkey, is described, illustrated, discussed and placed both in its historical and its design context. Other notable British swords of the Victorian Age (1837–1901), the Age of Empire, are also examined and the various and influential aspects of their designs, ornament and iconography discussed.