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1.
This article examines the implications of the proliferation of cyberwarfare capabilities for the character and frequency of war. Consideration of strategic logic, perceptions, and bargaining dynamics finds that the size of the effect of the proliferation of cyberwarfare capabilities on the frequency of war will probably be relatively small. This effect will not be constant across all situations; in some cases the advent of cyberwarfare capabilities may decrease the likelihood of war. On the other hand, the use of computer network attack as a brute force weapon will probably become increasingly frequent.  相似文献   

2.
Controversy has long surrounded the role and profitability of US defense contractors. From a financial perspective the question becomes whether defense contractors earn greater profits and investor returns than other companies during military conflicts. We explore this question by examining the accounting profitability and investor returns of US aircraft manufacturers before, during, and after World War II and compare them to a sample of non-defense firms. We also examine the reactions of aircraft stock prices to important political and military events of the time. We find that (1) aircraft stocks exhibited positive abnormal returns around events associated with defense buildups and outbreaks of hostile action and negative returns around events signaling an end to hostilities, (2) the company’s accounting returns improved during the war but these higher accounting returns did not translate into higher stock returns for the shareholders, and (3) investors could have earned higher stock returns had they switched out of aircraft stocks after Pearl Harbor and reinvested the proceeds in the overall market.  相似文献   

3.
Wellington's use of intelligence developed throughout his military career. Arguably, his experiences in India taught him the importance of intelligence, but it was during the Peninsular War that he honed his analytical techniques. As the war progressed, he developed sophisticated methods for the integration of strategic intelligence – largely gathered by civilian agents – with operational intelligence – collected by military personnel. This allowed him to develop operational conceptualisation, which in turn contributed to the successes he achieved over the French forces in Iberia. However, more than anything, it was his considered use of intelligence, combined with intricate deception operations in the latter stages of the conflict, which deprived the French of reliable intelligence on his own movements, and demonstrated his understanding of the importance of intelligence. This article investigates Wellington's increasing awareness of the importance of intelligence and deception during the Peninsular War.  相似文献   

4.
If a declining state has incentives for preventive war, the rising state should have incentives to delay a confrontation until it is stronger. We develop the theoretical paradox and examine the July 1914 crisis. Why did Russia, rising relative to Germany, not adopt a buying-time strategy? We argue that although most Russian leaders hoped to avoid a confrontation, they feared that the failure to support Serbia would lead to a loss of Russian credibility and a significant setback to Russia’s position in the Balkans, one that could not easily be reversed, even with Russia’s expected increase in relative military power.  相似文献   

5.
《战略研究杂志》2012,35(5):663-687
Abstract

In Western operations in Afghanistan, small European powers escalate in different ways. While Denmark and the Netherlands have contributed to Western escalation through integration with British and US forces, Norway and Sweden have done so by creating a division of labour allowing US and British combat forces to concentrate their efforts in the south. These variations in strategic behaviour suggest that the strategic choice of small powers is more diversified than usually assumed. We argue that strategic culture can explain the variation in strategic behaviour of the small allies in Afghanistan. In particular, Dutch and Danish internationalism have reconciled the use of force in the national and international domains, while in Sweden and Norway there is still a sharp distinction between national interest and humanitarianism.  相似文献   

6.
Conventional wisdom on the phenomenon of war is criticised for providing little relevant guidance to deal with the security challenges of our era. One reason is that this attitude uncritically assumes power as synonymous with force. In response, ‘productive war’ is here proposed as a re-conceptualisation of war based on Michel Foucault's alternative understanding of power. Productive war appreciates the role of violence but subordinates it to non-kinetic dynamics influencing the dimension of meaning in international security. This theoretical perspective provides a conceptual framework to deal with the dynamics of political mobilisation essential to create public support for nation-building abroad and for visions of world order.  相似文献   

7.
8.
Most historical accounts of the atomic bombings of Japan show little interest in Britain's explicit authorization for the attacks. Meanwhile, the few historians who have attempted to explain it rely on a unitary, rational actor model of the British state that is misleading. This article demonstrates that high-ranking British officials became anxious early on about the strategic consequences of a peremptory use of the new weapon. Therefore, especially over the course of 1944 they sought to engage Washington on the linked questions of the bomb's wartime use and its postwar control. However, these officials' initiatives were rebuffed by Prime Minister Winston Churchill, who paved the way to the bombings based on a fervent desire for Anglo-American integration, and on a dim understanding of the bomb's revolutionary potential.  相似文献   

9.
This paper revisits the modeling by Bracken [3] of the Ardennes campaign of World War II using the Lanchester equations. It revises and extends that analysis in a number of ways: (1) It more accurately fits the model parameters using linear regression; (2) it considers the data from the entire campaign; and (3) it adds in air sortie data. In contrast to previous results, it concludes by showing that neither the Lanchester linear or Lanchester square laws fit the data. A new form of the Lanchester equations emerges with a physical interpretation. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 1–22, 1998  相似文献   

10.
Based on the experience of the Cold War, some scholars hoped that the introduction of nuclear weapons into South Asia would promote peace between India and Pakistan. Instead, nuclear weapons made Pakistan less fearful of India's conventional military forces, and therefore help explain recent conflicts between them. Moreover, US expressions of concern about the possibility of inadvertent nuclear war in South Asia may have provided an incentive to both sides to be intransigent in order to elicit US intervention.  相似文献   

11.
《战略研究杂志》2012,35(5):601-611
Abstract

The introduction sets out the theme of the special issue. It introduces the topic of escalation by discussing the current state of the art in the literature and it outlines the set up of the remainder of the issue.  相似文献   

12.
《孙子兵法》是我国古代流传下来的最早、最完整、最著名的军事著作,也是现存中国和世界军事理论史上最早形成体系的军事理论巨著。《孙子兵法》问世以来,对其军事理论价值和其语言文学价值的研究成果很多。但是,相对而言,对其语言研究还是比较薄弱的。从语音、词汇、语法、修辞、篇章结构五个方面进行分析和总结,有助于正确掌握和评价《孙子兵法》语言研究的现状和价值。  相似文献   

13.
14.
孙子有备无患的军事思想,早已成为现代竞争领域的指导原则之一。每个人都有非常强烈的成功欲望,这样的人生,是一个永不停息的决策过程。从事什么样的工作,怎样做才能使自己在竞争中立于不败之地。《孙子兵法》告诉我们:人生竞争有策略。  相似文献   

15.
《战略研究杂志》2012,35(5):735-742
Abstract

The final contribution brings together the main findings of the individual articles, draws conclusions and formulates future research challenges in regards to understanding the escalation and de-escalation of irregular war.  相似文献   

16.
坚强的领导力是确保军事行动成功的关键。军校学员领导力不同于普通意义上的领导力。孙子“静以幽,正以治”的论述,揭示了军校学员领导力培养的基本内容、基本标准和各内容之间的辩证关系,对军校学员领导力培养具有重要的启迪意义。军校必须将培养超常的心质作为学员领导力的基础,把提升思维的广度和深度作为学员领导力的保障,将培养强烈的感召力作为学员领导力的核心,将培养坚强的执行力作为学员领导力的支撑。  相似文献   

17.
18.
This article examines the Dhofar campaign in Oman (1965–75), and the role Britain played in assisting the Omani royal government against left-wing insurgents. Using existing secondary sources and declassified British government papers, it reassesses the contribution of British military advisers and special forces to the counter-insurgency (COIN) campaign, the balance between military action and civil affairs, the external dimension of the conflict, and intelligence and covert operations. It concludes by assessing whether the Dhofar War offers any guidance to Western armed forces involved in contemporary COIN campaigns such as those in Afghanistan and Iraq.  相似文献   

19.
抗日战争时期爱国主义的主要特点是:爱国力量的空前广泛性;爱国理念的鲜明时代性;爱国内容的明显进步性;爱国斗争的极大彻底性。上述特点给予我们的启示是:爱国主义是振兴中华民族的根本动力,中华儿女要永远高举爱国主义伟大旗帜;爱国主义具有鲜明的时代内容,弘扬爱国主义必须与时俱进;爱国主义具有深刻的内涵,实践爱国主义必须以科学理论为指导。  相似文献   

20.
This paper uses a simple Monte Carlo model to analyze the influence of signals intelligence on the Second World War's Battle of the Atlantic. The principle measure of effectiveness is the number of U‐boat days of attack to which convoys were subjected. A secondary measure is the number of convoyed ships sunk. The model is validated against historical data and then used to explore the effectiveness of the two sides' signals intelligence. Allied use of signals intelligence is shown to have been capable of completely offsetting German use of signals intelligence, and then some. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005  相似文献   

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