"标准-3"拦截弹对机动弹头的拦截有效性分析

以"标准-3"拦截弹的多次拦截试验情况为参考,根据其能力及试验中的表现,分析其总体设计方案和各项性能参数,建立数学仿真模型.在研究海基导弹防御指挥控制流程、拦截弹动力学模型和仿真算法的基础上,对拦截具有机动突防能力的弹道导弹目标进行仿真分析.获得拦截弹对机动突防目标拦截有效性的仿真结果.分析仿真结果可知,拦截弹对机动弹头的拦截能力有限.     

基于Wigner分布的干扰项抑制及算法

Wigner分布是一种真正意义上的时频分析方法,但存在其固有缺陷即虚假时频谱(干扰项)问题.将实信号转化成所对应的解析信号,并采用Choi-Williams方法对Wigner分布进行修正,实现了对干扰项的有效抑制,获得了满意的信号时频谱.给出了用解析信号计算信号Wigner分布及Choi-Williams分布算法.通过几个典型信号(多分量信号、调频信号等)对所研制的软件进行仿真实验,结果与理论相符,表明了软件算法的正确性.     

光电型舰炮武器系统模拟训练仪的设计

为解决舰炮武器系统日常训练与检测问题,设计了舰炮武器系统模拟训练仪。介绍了模拟训练仪的组成、工作原理,及硬件、软件技术设计。其主要技术的应用涉及电视视频图象模拟技术、外弹道仿真及水柱坐标处理技术、距离方位法校射模拟技术及计算处理实时性技术。通过试验验证,该模拟训练仪能够很好的用于武器系统的检测和舰员的日常训练。     

Testing for positive quadrant dependence in ordinal contingency table

Two new randomization tests are introduced for ordinal contingency tables for testing independence against strictly positive quadrant dependence, i.e., P(X > x,Y > y) ≥ P(X > x)P(Y > y) for all x,y with strict inequality for some x and y. For a number of cases, simulation is used to compare the estimated power of these tests versus those standard tests based on Kendall's T, Spearman's p, Pearson's X², the usual likelihood ratio test, and a test based upon the log-odds ratio. In these cases, subsets of the alternative region are identified where each of the testing statistics is superior. The new tests are found to be more powerful than the standard tests over a broad range of the alternative regions for these cases.     

Some bayes tests and their asymptotic properties for the multivariate,multisample goodness-of-fit problem

Independent samples are taken from C multivariate populations with continuous but unknown cumulative distribution function c.d.f.). The problem is to test the hypothesis that the C population c.d.f's are identical to a specified c.d.f. We approach this problem by first transforming the data so that the hypothesis being tested is that the common distribution is uniform over a unit hypercube. We then construct some Bayes tests and investigate their asymptotic properties. These tests are based on the asymptotic normality of the number of observations falling in the “asymptotically sufficient groupings”.     

搅拌器配置对混响室无线电引信敏感度测试结果影响研究

针对国内各类标准及实验中提出的开阔场环境下敏感度测试方法无法满足线度较大弹体及高场强测试需要的问题,利用混响室在测试空间和强场模拟等方面的优势,提出混响室条件下无线电引信敏感度测试方法.测试方法是基于混响室步进工作模式,引入归一化场强这一物理量对混响室中受试引信敏感发火临界场强进行测算.实验证明,取各测试频点在不同采样点处测量值的最小值作为混响室条件下无线电引信的敏感度阈值时,混响室敏感度测试结果数值上最接近于标准均匀场条件下测得的敏感度阈值,同时进行不同搅拌器配置下该类引信的混响室敏感度测试.结果表明:搅拌器组合步进工作测量精度高于各搅拌器独立搅拌,而竖搅拌器独立步进工作时测试精度高于横搅拌器独立工作.     

Choosing arrival process models for service systems: Tests of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process

Service systems such as call centers and hospital emergency rooms typically have strongly time‐varying arrival rates. Thus, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) is a natural model for the arrival process in a queueing model for performance analysis. Nevertheless, it is important to perform statistical tests with service system data to confirm that an NHPP is actually appropriate, as emphasized by Brown et al. [8]. They suggested a specific statistical test based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) statistic after exploiting the conditional‐uniform (CU) property to transform the NHPP into a sequence of i.i.d. random variables uniformly distributed on [0,1] and then performing a logarithmic transformation of the data. We investigate why it is important to perform the final data transformation and consider what form it should take. We conduct extensive simulation experiments to study the power of these alternative statistical tests. We conclude that the general approach of Brown et al. [8] is excellent, but that an alternative data transformation proposed by Lewis [22], drawing upon Durbin [10], produces a test of an NHPP test with consistently greater power. We also conclude that the KS test after the CU transformation, without any additional data transformation, tends to be best to test against alternative hypotheses that primarily differ from an NHPP only through stochastic and time dependence. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 66–90, 2014     

模拟罐声发射试验研究

为验证常压储罐声发射的基本规律,并获得罐底缺陷声发射信号数据,在模拟罐进行声发射试验。原始状态的模拟罐底部存在沉淀,通过原始状态与清洗罐底后声发射试验结果对比,得出罐底沉淀物会产生部分声发射信号并影响声发射检测,以及涂层对声发射检测影响较小的结论。凹坑和通孔是罐底常见腐蚀缺陷,通过设计和预制3种罐底缺陷状态,分别对各种缺陷状态的罐底进行声发射试验,分析缺陷的声发射信号特征,得到缺陷在升压和保压检测中的声发射信号数据,为声发射检测数据分析提供参考。     

Verification and validation of detonation modeling

The mathematical model used to describe the detonation multi-physics phenomenon is usually given by highly coupled nonlinear partial differential equations. Numerical simulation and the computer aided engineering (CAE) technique has become the third pillar of detonation research, along with theory and experiment, due to the detonation phenomenon is difficult to explain by the theoretical analysis, and the cost required to accredit the reliability of detonation products is very high, even some physical experiments of detonation are impossible. The numerical simulation technique can solve these complex problems in the real situation repeatedly and reduce the design cost and time stunningly. But the reliability of numerical simulation software and the serviceability of the computational result seriously hinders the extension, application and the self-restoration of the simulation software, restricts its independently innovational ability. This article deals with the physical modeling, numerical simulation, and software development of detonation in a unified way. Verification and validation and uncertainty quantification (V&V&UQ) is an important approach in ensuring the credibility of the modeling and simulation of detonation. V&V of detonation is based on our independently developed detonation multi-physics software-LAD2D. We propose the verification method based on mathematical theory and program function as well as availability of its program execution. Validation is executed by comparing with the experiment data. At last, we propose the future prospect of numerical simulation software and the CAE technique, and we also pay attention to the research direction of V&V&UQ.     

Numerical investigation of the failure mechanism of cubic concrete specimens in SHPB tests

Cylindrical specimens are commonly used in Split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) tests to study the uniaxial dynamic properties of concrete-like materials.In recent years,true tri-axial SHPB equipment has also been developed or is under development to investigate the material dynamic properties under tri-axial impact loads.For such tests,cubic specimens are needed.It is well understood that static material strength obtained from cylinder and cube specimens are different.Conversion factors are obtained and adopted in some guidelines to convert the material strength obtained from the two types of specimens.Previous uniaxial impact tests have also demonstrated that the failure mode and the strain rate effect of cubic specimens are very different from that of cylindrical ones.However,the mechanical background of these findings is unclear.As an extension of the previous laboratory study,this study performs numerical SHPB tests of cubic and cylindrical concrete specimens subjected to uniaxial impact load with the validated numerical model.The stress states of cubic specimens in relation to its failure mode under different strain rates is analyzed and compared with cylindrical specimens.The detailed analyses of the numerical simulation results show that the lateral inertial confinement of the cylindrical specimen is higher than that of the cubic specimen under the same strain rates.For cubic specimen,the corners are more severely damaged because of the lower lateral confinement and the occurrence of the tensile radial stress which is not observed in cylindrical specimens.These results explain why the dynamic material strengths obtained from the two types of specimens are different and are strain rate dependent.Based on the simulation results,an empirical formula of conversion factor as a function of strain rate is proposed,which supplements the traditional conversion factor for quasi-static material strength.It can be used for transforming the dynamic compressive strength from cylinders to cubes obtained from impact tests at different strain rates.     

基于观测器的某火控系统故障诊断方法

以某自行高炮火控系统为对象,研究了基于状态观测器的故障诊断方法,并作了仿真试验.通过状态观测器提取相对余差来检测和识别故障.试验结果表明,对于火控系统中可以建立数学模型的分系统或单体,基于观测器的故障诊断方法具有较好的诊断效果.该方法已成功应用于某高炮火控系统的综合检测与诊断设备中.     

Tests for homogeneity of distributions of component lifetimes from system lifetime data with known system signatures

In this article, we discuss the problem of testing the homogeneity of distributions of component lifetimes based on system lifetime data when the system signatures are known. Both parametric and nonparametric procedures are developed for this problem. For nonparametric testing, the Mann–Whitney‐type statistic is used, and its performance and limitations are discussed. Next, we assume the component lifetimes to follow exponential distributions and then develop different parametric tests. Exact and asymptotic methods are developed based on the method of moments estimators. A Monte Carlo simulation study is used to compare the performance of different parametric procedures with that of the nonparametric procedure. Based on the results of the simulation study, discussions and practical recommendations are made and finally some concluding remarks are provided. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 550–563, 2015     

A dynamic general linear model for inference from accelerated life tests

We present a new approach for inference from accelerated life tests. Our approach is based on a dynamic general linear model setup which arises naturally from the accelerated life-testing problem and uses linear Bayesian methods for inference. The advantage of the procedure is that it does not require large numbers of items to be tested and that it can deal with both censored and uncensored data. We illustrate the use of our approach with some actual accelerated life-test data. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Bayesian selling problem with partial information

We introduce an optimal stopping problem for selling an asset when the fixed but unknown distribution of successive offers is from one of n possible distributions. The initial probabilities as to which is the true distribution are given and updated in a Bayesian manner as the successive offers are observed. After receiving an offer, the seller has to decide whether to accept the offer or continue to observe the next offer. Each time an offer is observed a fixed cost is incurred. We consider both the cases where recalling a past offer is allowed and where it is not allowed. For each case, a dynamic programming model and some heuristic policies are presented. Using simulation, the performances of the heuristic methods are evaluated and upper bounds on the optimal expected return are obtained. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Experimental and numerical study of the blast wave decrease using sandwich panel by granular materials core

Among the intrinsic properties of some materials, e.g., foams, porous materials, and granular materials, are their ability to mitigate shock waves. This paper investigated shock wave mitigation by a sandwich panel with a granular core. Numerical simulations and experimental tests were performed using Autodyn hydro-code software and a shock tube, respectively. The smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method was used to model granular materials. Sawdust and pumice, whose properties were determined by several compression tests, were used as granular materials in the sandwich panel core. These granular materials possess many mechanisms, including compacting (e.g., sawdust) and crushing (e.g., pumice) that mitigate shock/blast wave. The results indicated the ineffectiveness of using a core with low thickness, yet it was demonstrated to be effective with high thickness. Low-thickness pumice yielded better results for wave mitigation. The use of these materials with a core with appropriate core reduces up to 88% of the shock wave. The results of the experiments and numerical simulations were compared, suggesting a good agreement between the two. This indicates the accuracy of simulation and the ability of the SPH method to modeling granular material under shock loading. The effects of grain size and the coefficient of friction between grains have also been investigated using simulation, implying that increasing the grain size and coefficient of friction between grains both reduce overpressure.     

等效模拟压制下雷达探测区域计算与调整

压制干扰下的雷达探测区域能够形象反映雷达在压制干扰下的作战能力。理论计算出的雷达探测区域可能与实际情况相差很大,为了获得较为精确的探测区域,提出通过等效模拟压制干扰下的外场飞行试验获得雷达探测区域调整因子,并依据调整因子对理论探测区域进行调整。通过数字仿真初步验证了等效模拟压制技术的可行性,并通过数字仿真飞行试验初步验证了雷达探测区域调整方法的可行性,为日后依据外场飞行试验调整雷达探测区域提供支持。     

Inequality‐based reliability estimates for complex systems

Full‐system testing for large‐scale systems is often infeasible or very costly. Thus, when estimating system reliability, it is desirable to use a method that uses subsystem tests, which are often less expensive and more feasible. This article presents a method for bounding full‐system reliabilities based on subsystem tests and, if available, full‐system tests. The method does not require that subsystems be independent. It accounts for dependencies through the use of certain probability inequalities. The inequalities provide the basis for valid reliability calculations while not requiring independent subsystems or full‐system tests. The inequalities allow for test information on pairwise subsystem failure modes to be incorporated, thereby improving the bound on system reliability. We illustrate some of the properties of the estimates via an example application. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

防空武器系统仿真中的三维图形实时成像技术

图形图像技术在仿真中的应用除使之高度可视化外,更重要的是引入了“三维描述”的概念,扩大了“定量”     

虚拟环境中聚合级CGF坦克实体火力运用仿真

CGF是作战仿真必备的技术支持,国内的CGF系统尚不成形,急需对其进行深入的研究以满足作战仿真不断发展的需要,介绍以一个排的CGF坦克实体在虚拟的战场环境中火力运用方式及运用规则,列出了聚合级CGF实体的火力运用仿真流程图,实现虚拟战场环境下坦克实体一定的智能行为。     

Adaptive importance sampling for extreme quantile estimation with stochastic black box computer models

Quantile is an important quantity in reliability analysis, as it is related to the resistance level for defining failure events. This study develops a computationally efficient sampling method for estimating extreme quantiles using stochastic black box computer models. Importance sampling has been widely employed as a powerful variance reduction technique to reduce estimation uncertainty and improve computational efficiency in many reliability studies. However, when applied to quantile estimation, importance sampling faces challenges, because a good choice of the importance sampling density relies on information about the unknown quantile. We propose an adaptive method that refines the importance sampling density parameter toward the unknown target quantile value along the iterations. The proposed adaptive scheme allows us to use the simulation outcomes obtained in previous iterations for steering the simulation process to focus on important input areas. We prove some convergence properties of the proposed method and show that our approach can achieve variance reduction over crude Monte Carlo sampling. We demonstrate its estimation efficiency through numerical examples and wind turbine case study.