计算机网络级联失效建模与分析

针对以往级联失效模型负载局部重分配规则与现实计算机网络全局路由特点不吻合的缺陷,模拟网络中信息流传输过程。定义路由器的失效条件,建立基于负载全局重分配的级联失效模型,并在此基础上提出基于连通和性能两方面的级联失效影响评价参数,进而分析用户流量和攻击方式对计算机网络级联失效的影响。结果表明,随着流量的增大,级联失效存在相变行为,相变点刻画了网络在不会发生级联失效前提下的最大传输能力。此外,针对网络中高度节点的攻击,更为容易引发大规模的级联失效,应予以重点保护。     

Cognitivism,prospect theory,and foreign policy change: a comparative analysis of the politics of counterinsurgency in Malaya and Afghanistan

This article investigates the cognitive limitations on policy change in counterinsurgency (COIN) efforts by examining why American decision-makers failed to revise their government strategy substantially while fighting the insurgency in Afghanistan in 2003–2014 and why their British counterparts were more successful in adjusting their policies in the Malayan insurgency in 1948–1954. Unlike most of the COIN literature that concentrates on military strategy and tactics, the analysis of government policy-making in Malaya holds some important political lessons for American leaders today despite differences between the insurgencies in Afghanistan and British Malaya. As a response to the criticism of COIN studies in general that they lack theoretical guidance, this article utilizes an integrated cognitivist-prospect theory framework. It is argued that some of the COIN literature mistakenly suggests that a more difficult strategic situation was primarily responsible for American failure in Afghanistan. Instead, American decision-makers faced a more difficult task cognitively than their British counterparts, as policy change in Afghanistan would have required greater ideational change. American principals were much more attached to their beliefs emotionally, had no alternative problem representation, and had to shift between frames in order to engineer a response that was more in line with events on the ground in Afghanistan. Regarding prospect theory, findings indicate that gains frames appear to be unhelpful in monitoring progress until catastrophic failure endangers the reference point, and that decision-makers often have more than one reference point to attune their policies to, which often results in suboptimal choices with regard to at least one reference point.     

针对固定窗口算法的椭圆曲线密码故障分析

针对固定窗口算法实现点乘运算的椭圆曲线密码,基于符号变换故障攻击原理,通过分析不同故障模型下的密钥恢复过程,给出一种能够解决“零块失效”问题的改进故障分析方法,并进行仿真实验。实验结果表明：采用固定窗口算法的椭圆曲线密码易遭受故障攻击,10min内即可恢复NIST-192完整密钥。该故障分析方法也适用于其他采用点乘运算的密码算法。     

The logistic–exponential survival distribution

For various parameter combinations, the logistic–exponential survival distribution belongs to four common classes of survival distributions: increasing failure rate, decreasing failure rate, bathtub‐shaped failure rate, and upside‐down bathtub‐shaped failure rate. Graphical comparison of this new distribution with other common survival distributions is seen in a plot of the skewness versus the coefficient of variation. The distribution can be used as a survival model or as a device to determine the distribution class from which a particular data set is drawn. As the three‐parameter version is less mathematically tractable, our major results concern the two‐parameter version. Boundaries for the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters are derived in this article. Also, a fixed‐point method to find the maximum likelihood estimators for complete and censored data sets has been developed. The two‐parameter and the three‐parameter versions of the logistic–exponential distribution are applied to two real‐life data sets. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Statistical analysis of exponential lifetimes under an adaptive Type‐II progressive censoring scheme

In this article, a mixture of Type‐I censoring and Type‐II progressive censoring schemes, called an adaptive Type‐II progressive censoring scheme, is introduced for life testing or reliability experiments. For this censoring scheme, the effective sample size m is fixed in advance, and the progressive censoring scheme is provided but the number of items progressively removed from the experiment upon failure may change during the experiment. If the experimental time exceeds a prefixed time T but the number of observed failures does not reach m, we terminate the experiment as soon as possible by adjusting the number of items progressively removed from the experiment upon failure. Computational formulae for the expected total test time are provided. Point and interval estimation of the failure rate for exponentially distributed failure times are discussed for this censoring scheme. The various methods are compared using Monte Carlo simulation. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

Numerical modelling of non-ideal detonation in ANFO explosives applying Wood-Kirkwood theory coupled with EXPLO5 thermochemical code

Ammonium nitrate and fuel oil (ANFO) based explosive is a classic example of non-ideal high explosives. Its detonation is characterized by a strong dependence of detonation parameters on explosive charge diameter, presence and characteristics of confinement, as well as incomplete consumption of explosive at the sonic point.In this work we propose a detonation model based on the Wood-Kirkwood (WK) theory coupled with the thermochemical code EXPLO5 and supplemented with reaction rate models. Our objective is to analyze the validity of the model for highly non-ideal ANFO explosives, with emphasis on effect of reaction rate models.It was found that both single-step and two-step pressure-based models can be calibrated to reproduce experimental detonation velocity-charge radius data of ANFO at radii significantly above the failure radius (i.e. for D/D_id > ∼0.6). Single-step pressure-based model, with the pressure exponent equal to 1.4, proved to be the most accurate, even in the vicinity of the failure radius. The impact of the rate models is most evident on temporal (and spatial) distribution of flow parameters in detonation driving zone, especially when it comes to the conversion and width of detonation driving zone.     

An acceptance life test for high-reliability products

This article introduces a replacement life-test procedure for the exponential failure rate: Failure-free operation of a unit for at least t_k consecutive time units is designated a “success”; the acceptance test is passed if and only if the first success is encountered before k unit failures have been recorded. Test plans are presented and the test is compared with the usual time-truncated test and to the truncated sequential probability ratio test. It is shown that this new test has smaller expected test time than the time truncated test when the true failure rate is small relative to the null hypothesized failure rate. Consistency and unbiasedness are proved and methods for making inferences on failure rate are described.     

遗传算法的预防性维修周期优化方法

考虑到预防维修可以提高系统生产效益的同时,故障率会随着维修次数的增加而上升,引入役龄回退因子对预防维修活动前后系统性能的动态变化进行描述;而且还充分考虑到系统预防维修周期随维修次数的变化情况,建立了系统预防维修周期优化模型,并将改进后的遗传算法运用于模型的优化求解.重点研究了系统总效益随预防维修次数的变化率, 从而有效地帮助决策者判定系统何时进行更新替换.     

Discrete bathtub failure rate and upside-down bathtub mean residual life

The concepts of a bathtub-shaped failure rate and upside-down bathtub-shaped mean residual life for discrete lifetime distributions are considered. The relationship between these concepts is established. The discrete counterparts of IFRA and DFRA classes discussed in the continuous case are combined into the class of a bathtub-shaped failure rate average. The relationship between bathtub-shaped failure rate and bathtub-shaped failure rate average is also given. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The deformation and failure mechanism of cylindrical shell and square plate with pre-formed holes under blast loading

The deformation and failure mechanism of cylindrical shells and square plate with pre-formed holes under blast loading were investigated numerically by employing the Ansys 17.0 and Ls-Dyna 971. To calibrate the numerical model, the experiments of square plates with pre-formed circle holes were modeled and the numerical results have a good agreement with the experiment data. The calibrated numerical model was used to study the deformation and failure mechanism of cylindrical shells with pre-formed circle holes subjected to blast loading. The structure response and stress field changing process has been divided into four specific stages and the deformation mechanism has been discussed systematically. The local and global deformation curves, degree of damage, change of stress status and failure modes of cylindrical shell and square plate with pre-formed circular holes are obtained, compared and analyzed, it can be concluded as: (1) The transition of tensile stress fields is due to the geometrical characteristic of pre-formed holes and cylindrical shell with arch configuration; (2) The existence of pre-formed holes not only lead to the increasing of stress concentration around the holes, but also release the stress concentration during whole response process; (3) There are three and two kinds of failure modes for square plate and cylindrical shell with pre-formed holes, respectively. and the standoff distance has a key influence on the forming location of the crack initiating point and the locus of crack propagation; (4) The square plate with pre-formed holes has a better performance than cylindrical shell on blast-resistant capability at a smaller standoff distance, while the influence of pre-formed holes on the reduction of blast-resistant capability of square plate is bigger than that of cylindrical shell.     

A dynamic model for component testing

We consider the component testing problem of a system where the main feature is that the component failure rates are not constant parameters, but they change in a dynamic fashion with respect to time. More precisely, each component has a piecewise-constant failure-rate function such that the lifetime distribution is exponential with a constant rate over local intervals of time within the overall mission time. There are several such intervals, and the rates change dynamically from one interval to another. We note that these lifetime distributions can also be used in a more general setting to approximate arbitrary lifetime distributions. The optimal component testing problem is formulated as a semi-infinite linear program. We present an algorithmic procedure to compute optimal test times based on the column-generation technique and illustrate it with a numerical example. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 187–197, 1997     

Availability analysis of a two-unit series system with a priority shut-off rule

This study shows that the steady-state availability of a two-unit series system, which operates under a one-direction shut-off rule with a preemptive repair priority for unit 1, depends only on the first-order system parameters. First we obtain both transient and steady-state system availability and failure frequency when the lifetime of Unit 1 is Erlang and the other distributions are general. When the lifetime of Unit 1 is general, the system process has no regenerative point. Using supplementary variables, we establish a vector Markov process and hence transfer the problem to the solution of a system of integrodifferential equations. We can then obtain explicit formulas for the steady-state system availability and failure frequency, respectively. In concluding this article we make some conjectures on series systems and point out future research opportunities. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

切向空气气流对激光辐照碳纤维复合材料的影响

实验研究了靶材表面存在和不存在切向空气气流时,975nm连续激光对碳纤维增强树脂基复合材料的辐照效应,发现切向气流的加载有利于激光对碳纤维复合材料的破坏.从理论上对激光辐照下碳纤维复合材料的破坏机理进行了初步分析,基于碳的氧化特性和氧化反应机理,推导了碳纤维的氧化速率方程.采用改进的光滑粒子方法,对激光辐照下复合材料树...     

Optimal redesign decisions through failure rate estimates

To reduce the time-to-market of newly developed systems, manufacturers increasingly adopt strategies where systems are brought to market while system field reliability is still uncertain. These systems are typically sold under performance-based contracts, which incentivizes potential customers to invest in them despite reliability uncertainty. Such contracts make the manufacturer (partly) responsible for the availability of the system. Subsequently, when field reliability is lower than anticipated, the manufacturer may choose to redesign the system to avoid high contract penalties. Redesign is a costly effort which may substantially increase field reliability. Deciding when to redesign is challenging, especially because the initial failure rate estimate by the system's engineers is refined over time as failure data accrues. We propose a model that endogenizes the failure rate updating to analyze this tactical redesign decision. We study additive and multiplicative redesigns and show that the optimal policy has a control limit structure. We benchmark our optimal policy against a static counterpart numerically, and conclude that basing redesign decisions on the updated estimate of the failure rate can substantially reduce costs.     

Monotone failure rates for multivariate distributions

It is shown that the monotone multivariate failure rates of Brindley and Thompson have no natural analog involving the multivariate failure rate function of Basu for absolutely continuous distributions. Quantities related to the multivariate failure rate function are used to define monotone failure rates. It is shown that these are equivalent to the monotone failure rates of Brindley and Thompson. Based on these quantities, the loss of memory property of Marshall and Olkin is characterized.     

基于响应面法的复合材料层合板平面应力强度可靠性分析

针对处于平面应力状态下的复合材料层合板,考虑其材料参数、强度参数、几何尺寸以及承受载荷等随机因素,用分支限界法识别结构系统的各重要失效序列,应用响应面法对某具体层合板的各失效事件进行计算,进而计算出整个系统的失效概率,并且利用MATLAB程序以及ANSYS中的APDL语言编写了JC法计算程序。计算结果表明,一般情况下层合板首先出现基体损伤失效,然后才会出现纤维断裂失效。这一结果与一些文献中的试验结果相一致,表明这种概率分析方法可以应用于实际复合材料层合板结构的可靠性分析。     

潜艇对声纳浮标阵定位及规避策略

航空反潜战中,潜艇处于不利地位,如何提高潜艇对抗反潜机的作战能力,是亟待解决的问题。分析了潜艇通过拖曳综合浮标和电子支援措施Electronic Support Measure(ESM)设备对声纳浮标阵进行估计定位的单站双址交叉测向和基于方位角变化率的方法,以及潜艇方位角、角速率和航速对定位误差的影响。建立了潜艇对声纳浮标位置估计模型,提出了潜艇突破声纳浮标阵封锁应采用的规避策略。结果表明,潜艇可以对声纳浮标进行定位,为潜艇规避声纳浮标阵提供参考。     

A stochastic model for burn‐in procedures in accelerated environment

Burn‐in procedure is a manufacturing technique that is intended to eliminate early failures of system or product. Burning‐in a component or system means to subject it to a period of use prior to being used in field. Generally, burn‐in is considered expensive and so the length of burn‐in is typically limited. Thus, burn‐in is most often accomplished in an accelerated environment in order to shorten the burn‐in process. A new failure rate model for an accelerated burn‐in procedure, which incorporates the accelerated ageing process induced by the accelerated environmental stress, is proposed. Under a more general assumption on the shape of failure rate function of products, which includes the traditional bathtub‐shaped failure rate function as a special case, upper bounds for optimal burn‐in time will be derived. A numerical example will also be given for illustration. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

Effect of hot-humid exposure on static strength of adhesive-bonded aluminum alloys

The effect of hot-humid exposure(i.e., 40 C and 98% R.H.) on the quasi-static strength of the adhesive-bonded aluminum alloys was studied. Test results show that the hot-humid exposure leads to the significant decrease in the joint strength and the change of the failure mode from a mixed cohesive and adhesive failure with cohesive failure being dominant to adhesive failure being dominant. Careful analyses of the results reveal that the physical bond is likely responsible for the bond adhesion between L adhesive and aluminum substrates. The reduction in joint strength and the change of the failure mode resulted from the degradation in bond adhesion, which was primarily attributed to the corrosion of aluminum substrate. In addition, the elevated temperature exposure significantly accelerated the corrosion reaction of aluminum, which accelerated the degradation in joint strength.     

Periodic replacement when minimal repair costs vary with time

A policy of periodic replacement with minimal repair at failure is considered for a complex system. Under such a policy the system is replaced at multiples of some period T while minimal repair is performed at any intervening system failures. The cost of a minimal repair to the system is assumed to be a nonde-creasing function of its age. A simple expression is derived for the expected minimal repair cost in an interval in terms of the cost function and the failure rate of the system. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of an optimal replacement interval are exhibited in the case where the system life distribution is strictly increasing failure rate (IFR).