Implementing defence policy: a benchmark-“lite”

Most countries put significant amounts of time and effort in writing and issuing high-level policy documents. These are supposed to guide subsequent national defence efforts. But do they? And how do countries even try to ensure that they do? This paper reports on a benchmarking effort of how a few “best of breed” small- to medium-sized defence organisations (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) deal with these issues. We find that most countries fail to link goals to resources and pay limited attention to specific and rigorous ex-ante or post-hoc evaluation, even when compared to their own national government-wide provisions. We do, however, observe a (modest) trend towards putting more specific goals and metrics in these documents that can be – and in a few rare cases were – tracked. The paper identifies 42 concrete policy “nuggets” – both “do’s and don’ts” – that should be of interest to most defence policy planning/analysis communities. It ends with two recommendations that are in line with recent broader (non-defence) scholarship on the policy formulation-policy implementation gap: to put more rigorous emphasis on implementation (especially on achieving desired policy effects), but to do so increasingly in more experiential (“design”) ways, rather than in industrial-age bureaucratic ones (“PPBS”-systems).     

Rhetoric versus reality: Canadian defence planning in a time of austerity

As Canada's military mission in Afghanistan winds down and the country faces several years of fiscal austerity, all of Canada's major political parties are agreed that Canadian defence budgets must stay level or be cut. This comes at a time when the defence department is slated to replace the Canadian Forces’ (CF) major equipment fleets. Canada's defence establishment thus faces some critical decisions. One option is to try to maintain its expeditionary capabilities across all three services: army, navy and air force. Absent substantial new infusions of funds, however, this approach is likely to lead to an overall and largely chaotic reduction of capabilities. Another option is to make some difficult choices as to which expeditionary capabilities to maintain as part of a strategic review of Canada's future military needs. Such an option would ensure that Canada has at least some military capacities which can reliably be devoted to the most demanding international operations, while maintaining those capabilities required for domestic duties and North American defence. Pursuing this option would accord with the new North Atlantic Treaty Organization Strategic Concept and the call for “Smart Defense” within the Alliance. This article assesses the arguments for and against the option of specialising Canada's future defence capabilities and explores scenarios as to what a future CF may look like.     

The danger of “hybrid warfare” from a sophisticated adversary: the Russian “hybridity” in the Ukrainian conflict

The term “hybrid warfare” is a new one that the West began to use to explain its failure to cope with asymmetric threats. Focusing on the war on global terrorism, the West temporarily withdrew its attention from traditional adversaries, such as Russia, which has used this gap and has audaciously returned to the stage as a global actor. Until the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and inflaming the Ukrainian crisis, most Western authors attributed “hybrid threats” mostly to non-state actors. But the Ukrainian scenario showed the true face of “hybridity” in the modern battlefield when practised by a powerful state actor. Russian “hybrid warfare” in Ukraine has already been seen as a combination of conventional and unconventional methods, that have been complemented with other instruments of national power – diplomatic, economic and information. The purpose of this article is, through an analysis of the Ukrainian scenario, to demonstrate that although the term “hybrid” is new, the concept itself is old and is a continuation of already seen doctrine from the Cold War era. Although “hybrid threats” can come both from state and non-state actors, the Russian interference in Ukraine is proof that they are especially dangerous for the West if, or when, they are initiated from a traditional, sophisticated adversary that has the capacity to use all forms of warfare.     

伊犁哈萨克族“民考民”和“民考汉”中学生语言文字使用情况调研--以特克斯县初级中学为个案

新疆推行民汉合校后,少数民族学生的语言使用情况一直是双语教育领域关注的问题。本文通过问卷调查和访谈的方式,以特克斯县初级中学为个案,考察了伊犁地区哈萨克族“民考民”及“民考汉”中学生语言使用情况。结果表明,哈萨克族“民考汉”和“民考民”学生在语言文字使用、语言态度以及语言文化认同上有较大差异,但也有一致性：希望在熟练地掌握汉语的同时,也能掌握好自己的本民族语言。最后基于提高新疆少数民族基础教育水平和培养民汉兼通人才的目的提出对策。     

反导防御与反导条约

以美国国家导弹防御计划为背景对美、俄所签订的反导条约作了分析 ,其中包括条约要点、条约修改和发展 ,从“修约”到单方“退约”等 ,最后对美退出反导条约背景及影响作了结论     

美国国家导弹防御系统

美国国家导弹防御系统已引起了世界的广泛关注。主要阐述该系统的主要组成、功能、特点、进展及系统部署设想     

New terrorist threat to India's internal security: the danger from Pakistan's “Karachi Project”

The spectacular commando-style terrorist strike on Mumbai in November 2008 exposed India's lax internal security structure. As nearly all the security apparatus broke down during the long spell of attacks, massive public outrage flared up across the country calling for a firmer government response. Shockingly, India has done little to prevent a recurrence and a new security threat faces the country every single day not merely before but even after the Mumbai attacks. In contrast, Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence and the Lashkar-e-Taiba have successfully evaded pressures from both India and the international community and continue their terror campaign against India under the “Karachi Project” with the explicit intention to unsettle South Asia. Classified documents indicated that India is at the forefront of a cataclysmic “nuclear terrorism” threat from a “combination of Pakistan-based terrorists and homegrown radicals.” This article analyses the danger posed by the Indo-Pak radical groups targeting India and India's lack of preparedness to the new security threat from the “Karachi Project.”     

To free or not to free (ride): a comparative analysis of the NATO burden-sharing in the Czech Republic and Lithuania

ABSTRACT

The recent rise in the defence budgets among the NATO members reawakens the free-riding dilemma. This article provides an analysis of the defence spending of two new member states, the Czech Republic and Lithuania. Based on the free-riding theory, we explain why some of the new NATO members decide to increase their defence budgets (Lithuania), and others do not (Czech Republic). In contrast to the majority of works which focus either on the US as the biggest spender or on the “old” members of the Alliance, we explain under what circumstances some of the small European states who became new NATO members started to increase their defence budgets even though they do not have to, and the literature suggests that free-riding is easier. In the process, we identify three crucial factors that in?uence the decision-making process in this regard: the level of threat perception, economic situation, and the US pressure.     

针对国家导弹防御系统突防措施研究

美国为了追求绝对的安全,不顾国际社会的反对,贸然发展其国家弹道导弹防御系统。为了追求世界的制衡,必须研究如何突破弹道导弹防御系统。简述了NMD的发展演变,在分析了美国的国家导弹防御系统构成的基础上,针对其使用的拦截手段,重点分析了弹道导弹突破NMD的7种可能措施。     

提高“两课”教学的生动性三议

提高“两课”教学的生动性,就要在备课和讲课时,注重追求思想上的深刻、资料上的精彩和语言上的震撼与精美。力求思想深刻,内容精彩,语言精美。     

Turkey’s strategic choice: buy or make weapons?

Turkey has been investing in its national defence industrial base since the 1980s. As with other developing countries, Turkey’s motivations for investing in national defence industries can be boiled down to the pursuit of defence autarky, economic benefits and international prestige. However, after 40 years of investment, Turkey is unable to reach the primary goals of defence industrialisation. We argue that three factors are important to understanding Turkey’s persistence in these primary goals. First, Turkey believes that there is an overall improvement in its defence industrial capabilities and the goal of autarky is still reachable. Second, increased defence exports support the belief that Turkish defence industries have become sustainable and the trend will continue in the future. The third reason, perhaps most important of all, has to do with the domestic political gains of defence industrialisation: the AKP uses defence industry and indigenous weapon systems for prestige and, therefore, garners broader support.     

弹道导弹的突防与拦截

简述了弹道导弹在现代战争中的重要性。在介绍美国的国家导弹防御系统 (NMD)的基础上 ,针对其使用的拦截手段 ,重点分析了弹道导弹可采取的突防措施。     

数据库系统安全模型的设计

本文首先分析了有关数据库安全所需要解决的几个问题,并基于 discretion 和mandatory 存取策略,以及完整性和数据库加密策略,提出了一个较完整的数据库系统的安全模型。     

NMD作战管理仿真模型框架设计

针对美国国家导弹防御系统NMD(nationalmissiledefence)的发展现状,重点分析了NMD作战管理系统模型的行为过程以及与其它系统模型的接口关系,设计了作战管理系统的模型体系框架,提出了将系统的行为过程描述和功能描述相分离的建模思路。