新时期公安边防部队涉警舆情应对研究

随着现代信息技术的发展以及互联网的普及,社会舆论载体日益增多,而公安工作的特殊性又使公安机关极易成为社会关注的焦点。广泛、动态的涉警舆论一方面促进了公安边防工作的有效开展,但另一方面也给公安边防部队及公安边防工作带来巨大挑战。密切掌握涉警舆情动态,切实提高公安边防部队应对负面涉警舆情的能力,是公安边防部队履行三大历史使命的保证。     

记者在舆论监督中的权利与权力辨析

我国舆论监督体制还不完善 ,记者在进行批评报道的问题上存在一些误区 ,把记者的“权利”误以为行政、司法等“权力” ,从而产生了一些负面影响。通过记者在舆论监督中的“权利”与“权力”的辨析 ,树立正确的舆论监督原则 ,把握正确的舆论导向     

文化安全视角下的新疆高校网络舆情管理探究

文化安全的关键在意识形态,意识形态领域中的关键问题是价值观掌控问题。作为文化传播的主要组成部分,网络舆情对文化安全的表层和深层结构都有重要影响。本文从文化安全视角下切入,结合新疆高校网络舆情调研,分析了文化安全面临的冲击与挑战,并提出了基于文化安全保障下的新疆高校网络舆情有效管理方式和路径。     

群体性事件网络舆情传播规律与对策研究

随着互联网的不断普及,现实世界发生的群体性事件往往迅速在虚拟的网络世界引起强烈反响,一旦处理不当将会引发甚至恶化群体性事件。通过分析群体性事件与网络舆情之间的关系,研究群体性事件网络舆情形成机制与传格规律．并在此基础上提出应对群体性事件网络舆情的对策。     

Beyond the Double Game: Lessons from Pakistan’s Approach to Islamist Militancy

States commonly take one of three approaches to militant groups on their soil: collaboration; benign neglect; or belligerence. All three approaches are present in Pakistan, where some groups also move back and forth among these categories. I employ the term “coopetition” to capture this fluidity. The dynamic nature of militancy in Pakistan makes the country an excellent laboratory for exploring a state’s assessment of the utility an Islamist militant group offers, and the threat it poses relative to other threats informs the state’s treatment of that group. In this article, I put forward a typology that situates Islamist militants in Pakistan in one of the above four categories. I also illustrate how a group’s identity, objectives, and alliances inform assessments of its utility and threat relative to other threats. In addition to enhancing our understanding of militant–state dynamics, this taxonomy builds on and helps to unify earlier typologies of Pakistani militancy.     

论网络舆情与高校思想政治教育的关联

随着互联网的普及,网络舆情对高校思想政治教育产生了广泛影响,二者之间存在密切关联。网络舆情蕴含思想政治教育功能,思想政治教育对网络舆情具有疏导作用。根据二者的密切关联,对大学生开展有针对性的教育已成为思想政治教育工作者面临的新课题。     

Book reviews

Jurgen Brauer's comment presents what he calls a replication of an earlier study by Higgs and Kilduff (1993) and uses it to criticize the adequacy of the Higgs‐Kilduff model. In several respects, however, Brauer has not actually performed a replication: he uses different data, a different sample period, and arrives at different results. His criticisms rest on his own setup, not that of Higgs and Kilduff. Therefore they have no strict applicability to the latter. Moreover, Brauer's stepwise model has no bearing on the Higgs‐Kilduff model, as it violates that model's specification requirements.     

依据信息加工原理 提升舆论战作战功能

舆论战是通过舆论传播平台传递信息,作用于受众的思想或心理,争取人心,实现小战大胜或不战而胜。依据信息加工原理,分析研究信息源、信息、媒介和受众这四个要素,是提升舆论战作战功能的必由之路。     

Pakistan’s nuclear weapons: how safe is safe enough? Transparency versus opacity

Due to expanding and increasing religious extremism and terrorism coupled with political instability in Pakistan, most western observers believe that Pakistan's nuclear weapons are not secure and could be taken over by terrorists. This would have adverse implications for the region and for global peace, especially for the security of USA and Europe. This article argues that this perception is based on a flawed understanding and knowledge of how Pakistan's command and control setup has evolved and operates. Pakistan's nuclear weapons are as safe as any other state's nuclear weapons. Pakistan has also been active in supporting and participating in global efforts to improve nuclear safety and security. Over the years, Pakistan has been quite open in sharing information regarding how it is improving its command and control system with western governments as well as scholars. This article argues that the steps Pakistan has taken to secure its nuclear weapons are adequate and that Pakistan would continue to further strengthen these measures; however, it is the expanding religious extremism, terrorism and anti-Americanism in the country which make the international perception of Pakistan extremely negative and then seep into the perception of Pakistan's nuclear weapons safety and security.     

Pakistan’s response to US foreign policy towards South Asia 1977–1993

Relations between the USA and Pakistan have been tenuous since the 1947 partition of British India and the subsequent creation of the former. The 1979 Soviet intervention in Afghanistan focused the attention of the international community on South Asia. This article will examine the foreign policies of three successive US Presidential Administrations between 1977 and 1993, and how their decisions and corresponding actions were interpreted by the Pakistani government and its people. The key finding is the trend of the ebb and flow of US interest in Pakistan. The primary research conducted for this article shows that Pakistanis recognize this trend and consider it hypocritical of the US government. The current conditions in South Asia are ominously similar to those of 1992 with the drawdown of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan. Policy-makers would be wise to review the events of 1977–1993 so that the cycle is not repeated again.     

网民心理视角下的网络舆情引导机制研究

在网络舆情频发的社会背景下,加强网民心理的分析和研究是完善网络舆情引导的重要举措。通过列举几种网民心理的类型,分析在这些心理的作用下网民在网络舆情中的行为表现。从网民心理疏导的角度出发,从引导主体、引导机制和引导渠道三个方面考虑,解决基于网民心理的网络舆情引导问题,为政府应对网络舆情事件提供理论支撑。     

基于知识图谱和二级传播理论的网络舆情事件传播分析

在目前的网络舆情事件传播分析中,尽管生命周期模型能够较好地描述舆情事件的发展规律,但却忽略了部分时期之间存在的共性特征,无法充分体现意见领袖对网络舆情事件传播过程的影响.本文提出了一种基于知识图谱和二级传播理论的网络舆情事件传播分析方法,首先,构建网络舆情事件知识图谱;然后,基于知识图谱计算用户影响力挖掘意见领袖;最后...     

复杂网络下基于Agent的舆情演化研究

<正>确认识、预测、引导和处理舆情对公众的影响,对社会稳定有重大的现实意义。通过综合运用多Agent和动力学微分方程的思路建立模型,结合社会人群中个体的行为规律,重点描述个体的行为细节和交互规则,构建了自下而上的舆情演化模型,并模拟广场"自焚"事件在网络上的传播,对模型进行了实证研究,验证了模型的有效性,运用Net Logo软件进行数值仿真,得到了舆情演化的规律,进而提出相应的对策建议。     

基于SNA参数的网络舆论系统状态差分分析

近年来,互联网在我国快速发展,网络舆论起着越来越重要的作用,对国家安全和社会稳定产生了重大的冲击和影响。针对网络舆论系统的状态进行研究,借助SNA方法,提出了可作为序参量的一些特征参数。在此基础上,设计了基于时间序列的SNA参数差分算法,实现对网络舆论系统的状态进行观测与分析。同时,对一个真实网络舆论进行实验仿真,验证了这种方法。     

突发事件处置经验对军队战时管理的启示

战时管理是关系作战全局的基础性工作,是保持和释放战斗力的重要举措,是确保军队高度集中统一、能打胜仗的重要支撑。有效提升军队战时管理能力是现代战争中部队管理工作亟待研究的重要课题。本文梳理了近期我国突发事件处置中的经验教训,从战时支前物资管理、战时人力资源管理及战时舆情信息管控三个方面提出：战时支前物资管理应完善机制、改造模式、畅通网络;战时人力资源管理应紧贴任务实际、突出岗才一致、彰显精简程序;战时舆情信息管控应统一机构、正确导向、纯洁队伍、严管舆论等措施,以期给未来战时管理决策提供可选方案,实现管理服务作战,保障打赢之目的。     

Public opinion: A powerful predictor of U.S. defense spending

Public opinion survey responses regarding the desirability of changes in defense spending can be compressed into a single variable, the public opinion balance, which, when accompanied by a control variable measuring the proportion of responses in the “residuum” (no opinion or keep the status quo), permits an accurate prediction of subsequent changes in the rate of change of U.S. defense outlays from the mid‐1960s through the 1980s. This finding cannot be interpreted as a simple case of “the public got what it wanted,” however, because public opinion was not autonomous or spontaneous, and defense decision makers themselves played a central role in shaping public opinion.     

Is Britain a force for good? Investigating British citizens’ narrative understanding of war

It is commonly assumed in the foreign policy literature that narratives are uniquely persuasive and thus integral to obtaining public support for war. Yet, empirical research on “strategic narrative” is often vague on both the concept of narrative and how it persuades. Moreover, the stories publics use to interpret war are rarely examined. This paper offers a novel approach to studying “from the ground up” the war stories of individual British citizens. It examines public interpretations of war through emplotment: the way people select and link events to create a coherent story. Examining the wars people include and those they silence, it illustrates how a diverse range of citizens morally evaluates Britain’s military role, be it as a Force for Good, a Force for Ill or a country Learning from its Mistakes. In doing so, the paper offers an alternative methodological approach to studying how individual citizens understand war.