Optimal empty vehicle redistribution for hub‐and‐spoke transportation systems

This article considers the empty vehicle redistribution problem in a hub‐and‐spoke transportation system, with random demands and stochastic transportation times. An event‐driven model is formulated, which yields the implicit optimal control policy. Based on the analytical results for two‐depot systems, a dynamic decomposition procedure is presented which produces a near‐optimal policy with linear computational complexity in terms of the number of spokes. The resulting policy has the same asymptotic behavior as that of the optimal policy. It is found that the threshold‐type control policy is not usually optimal in such systems. The results are illustrated through small‐scale numerical examples. Through simulation the robustness of the dynamic decomposition policy is tested using a variety of scenarios: more spokes, more vehicles, different combinations of distribution types for the empty vehicle travel times and loaded vehicle arrivals. This shows that the dynamic decomposition policy is significantly better than a heuristics policy in all scenarios and appears to be robust to the assumptions of the distribution types. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

装备维修系统的组织模型研究

综述了组织模型的研究现状,用维修组织的存在环境、构成要素、维修目标、维修策略和存在时间建立了复杂装备维修系统的形式化模型,分析并研究了维修组织要素之间的交互、隶属与协作关系,定义了维修系统的元组织。该方法可描述动态复杂条件下的维修系统,有利于装备维修保障信息系统的计算机建模与实现。     

军事能力到装备系统的双层规划模型及其求解算法

阐述了基于能力的军事规划新思路,提出了从军事能力到系统项目的两层规划模型。该模型上层以效果和效果-成本比值最大化为目标,通过资本规模来约束下层决策。下层以各种能力最大化为目标,在成本约束下寻求不同系统项目的最佳组合,并将结果返回上层影响最终的决策。应用了多目标遗传算法来求解该规划模型。算例结果表明,所建立的双层规划模型及其求解算法对于国防资源分配问题是有效的。     

An optimal critical level policy for inventory systems with two demand classes

Traditional inventory systems treat all demands of a given item equally. This approach is optimal if the penalty costs of all customers are the same, but it is not optimal if the penalty costs are different for different customer classes. Then, demands of customers with high penalty costs must be filled before demands of customers with low penalty costs. A commonly used inventory policy for dealing with demands with different penalty costs is the critical level inventory policy. Under this policy demands with low penalty costs are filled as long as inventory is above a certain critical level. If the inventory reaches the critical level, only demands with high penalty costs are filled and demands with low penalty costs are backordered. In this article, we consider a critical level policy for a periodic review inventory system with two demand classes. Because traditional approaches cannot be used to find the optimal parameters of the policy, we use a multidimensional Markov chain to model the inventory system. We use a sample path approach to prove several properties of this inventory system. Although the cost function is not convex, we can build on these properties to develop an optimization approach that finds the optimal solution. We also present some numerical results. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

群车加油系统水力计算方法

加油系统是群车加油装备的主要系统之一,其不同工况的水力计算结果是研究和分析加油系统规律和特性的基础。介绍了新型群车加油车加油系统基本结构,针对其结构简单、工况随机多变的特点,运用排列组合知识对系统工况进行了归纳分类,共有1 023种工况组合和10种加油模式;提出距离矩阵法用于建立加油系统的随机工况数学模型,并详细阐述了模型计算过程;通过对单枪、五枪和十枪加油模式的典型工况进行计算,最终结果验证了该方法用于求解群车加油系统和其他多分支管路系统随机工况的水力计算是可行的。     

基于系统动力学的工程项目目标控制

针对工程项目目标控制问题,通过德尔菲法确定工程项目目标控制的主要影响因素,基于系统动力学反馈与仿真分析理论建立了工程项目目标控制系统动力学模型。采用专家打分法确定参数,利用Vensim软件对模型进行模拟演化和算例分析,讨论不同策略和策略组合的工程项目目标控制效果,最终得到基于算例工程的理想方案为0时增加人工8人,0时加班1 d,管理费水平为3。采用该方案,该工程的完工时间提前47.2%,质量下降2.0%,费用上升6.7%。通过不同策略和策略组合的效果比较,得出结论：加班宜尽量少用,尤其要避免连续加班;尽量避免无效管理费用支出,但对于可以带来管理水平提高的管理费用支出宜适量增加;增加人工越早越好。     

炮兵指挥系统测试的报文通用解析编辑模型

针对目前炮兵指挥系统测试设备报文解析、编辑程序量大、通用化程度低的情况,在研究分析炮兵指挥系统报文基础上,提出了适用于各种型号炮兵指挥系统报文解析、编辑组报的通用报文解析与编辑模型.根据提出的模型设计出炮兵指挥系统测试的通用编辑软件,可供各种型号的炮兵指挥系统测试完成报文的解析、编辑、组报,能够大大减少有关报文的编程量,为炮兵指挥系统的综合检测奠定了良好的基础.     

复杂体系的结构分析和建模研究

根据复杂体系的概念及其所呈现出的多种特性,利用复杂体系的使命分解和复杂体系的元素组成对复杂体系进行综合的结构分析,描述了目标分解、功能分解和行为分解的复杂体系使命目标三阶段分解过程以及系统单元、复合元和体系外部环境的复杂体系三元素结构框架。在此基础上,提出了采用一种“两层四级”的设计思想对复杂体系进行有效的结构建模设计,并针对复杂体系内部的相互位置层次及其功能关联定义了度量实体、层级映射、系统关联性和软构层等相关概念,清晰地阐释了复杂体系结构分析和建模时体系层次映射的实质,从而为复杂体系的效能评估以及体系改进和优化提供一定的理论指导。     

舰船中央冷却系统多智能体自治控制

面向下一代舰船电力推进装置的分布式冷却需求,针对复杂情况下系统自重构与自愈控制问题,提出以某型中央冷却系统为控制对象的多智能体自治控制体系。设计各类智能体的个体结构和多智能体的分布式结构,采用智能体联盟和熟人机制对合同网协作模型进行改进,并优化自动任务分配和故障恢复过程中的多智能体协作流程。在此基础上,设计中央冷却系统原理性装置,建立以多智能体控制系统为核心的自治控制试验研究平台,对控制系统效能进行分析验证。试验结果表明：所设计的多智能体自治控制体系能够自主地完成系统动态重构和故障恢复控制,使电力推进装置中央冷却系统具备自重构和自愈的能力。     

复杂网络理论的防空反导系统网络特征

网络中心战是未来战争的主要作战样式,网络复杂性也是需要研究的重要问题之一.提出基于复杂网络的防空反导系统网络模型,并对网络模型的拓扑结构、统计特征和中心度进行了研究.针对防空反导体系结构问题,复杂网络理论是一种有效揭示网络内部特性的分析工具,对于网络模型的建立和优化具有很好的理论指导意义.     

作战体系超网络模型及应用

作战体系是由实体节点、各节点之间的物理、逻辑关系,以及实体节点之间的“流”交互、输送、聚集、融合所构成的复杂系统,基于单一要素的网络模型不能反映作战体系的复杂构成和整体结构。本文从军事需求出发,提出了社会任务—指挥控制—物理资源多层超网络模型,用以反映作战体系的复杂构成及结构形态。并通过形式化描述对网络之间的相互交互与映射关系进行规范,接着对模型应用中的关键技术作了初步探讨,模型为研究军事组织指挥、控制问题提供了一种新的工具和思路。     

基于系统动力学的协同决策模型性能分析

为探索信息化作战中指挥控制关键因素,提出改进作战指挥体制的对策措施,采用系统动力学理论,对协同决策的结构、参与者和信息反馈关系等关键因素进行了分析,在此基础上构建了基于系统动力学的协同决策模型并进行了模拟仿真。结果表明,增加指挥控制机构之间的信息共享可以有效提升协同决策的效率,为建立协同决策指挥控制体制提供了借鉴意义。     

Optimal replacement under additive damage and other failure models

A machine or production system is subject to random failure. Upon failure the system is replaced by a new one, and the process repeats. A cost is associated with each replacement, and an additional cost is incurred at each failure in service. Thus, there is an incentive for a controller to attempt to replace before failure occurs. The problem is to find an optimal control strategy that balances the cost of replacement with the cost of failure and results in a minimum total long-run average cost per unit time. We attack this problem under the cumulative damage model for system failure. In this failure model, shocks occur to the system in accordance with a Poisson process. Each shock causes a random amount of damage or wear and these damages accumulate additively. At any given shock, the system fails with a known probability that depends on the total damage accumulated to date. We assume that the cumulative damage is observable by the controller and that his decisions may be based on its current value. Supposing that the shock failure probability is an increasing function of the cumulative damage, we show that an optimal policy is to replace either upon failure or when this damage first exceeds a critical control level, and we give an equation which implicitly defines the optimal control level in terms of the cost and other system parameters. Also treated are some more general models that allow for income lost during repair time and other extensions.     

Properties of an approximate hazard transform

The calculation of the exact reliability of complex systems is a difficult and tedious task. Consequently simple approximating techniques have great practical value. The hazard transform of a system is an invertible transformation of its reliability function which is convenient and useful in both applied and theoretical reliability work. A simple calculus for finding an approximate hazard transform for systems formed by series and parallel combinations of components is extended so that it can be used for any coherent system. The extended calculus is shown to lead to conservative approximations. A first order version of the extended calculus is also discussed. This method of approximation is even more simple to use, but is not always conservative. Examples of its application indicate that it is capable of giving quite accurate results.     

基于发动机恒转速控制的干式DCT车辆智能起步研究

分析了起步过程中影响离合器接合速度的主要因素,基于发动机恒转速控制方式和双离合器联合起步,设计了驾驶意图模糊推理系统、离合器接合速度推理系统、离合器分离条件推理系统3个智能控制系统,对起步的挡位、发动机转速、离合器接合速度进行控制,并对其进行了仿真。仿真结果表明:应用模糊控制能很好地控制DCT车辆双离合器联合起步。     

基于语义发布订阅系统的战场态势实时分发技术

随着战争形态的多样化和范围的越来越广,战场态势呈现信息量大、复杂性、无规则性、多变性。针对现有的发布/订阅系统不能支持复杂结构的态势来进行事件发布和订阅的语义匹配,提出了基于语义发布订阅系统的战场态势实时分发技术。采用本体描述战场态势的概念模型,采用RDF图表示需求方订阅条件,基于该战场态势本体设计高效的发布订阅匹配算法。实验结果表明,该技术能够支持复杂战场态势实时分发和具有较高的订阅匹配效率。     

Bayesian enhanced decision making for deteriorating repairable systems with preventive maintenance

Since a system and its components usually deteriorate with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to restore or keep the function of a system in a good state. Furthermore, PM is capable of improving the health condition of the system and thus prolongs its effective age. There has been a vast amount of research to find optimal PM policies for deteriorating repairable systems. However, such decisions involve numerous uncertainties and the analyses are typically difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. In this article, a Bayesian decision model is developed to determine the optimal number of PM actions for systems which are maintained according to a periodic PM policy. A non‐homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deteriorating behavior of the repairable system. It is assumed that the status of the system after a PM is somewhere between as good as new for a perfect repair and as good as old for a minimal repair, and for failures between two preventive maintenances, the system undergoes minimal repairs. Finally, a numerical example is given and the results of the proposed approach are discussed after performing sensitivity analysis. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

按保障度最大配置备件模型

考虑了备件资源有限,有多个需求单位的条件下,依据装备数量、零部件、元器件的故障率,单装用数、平均更换时间、各级维修机构领取备件的平均时间,建立了两级备件保障度的模型,并在备件总资源量一定的条件下,按保障度最大给出了两级备件配置的程序、方法和示例.模型举例说明了模型输出结果的特征和敏感性.模型应用可减少备件的积压,降低备件的短缺,提高备件的保障效果.     

武器装备体系能力矩阵评估方法

针对武器装备体系能力难以客观、定量评估的问题,引入复杂网络理论,提出了基于矩阵运算的武器装备体系能力评估方法。分析了武器装备体系能力的概念,建立了武器装备体系的复杂层次网络模型,描述了装备网络的组成、运行过程,定义了装备网络的矩阵描述方法和矩阵运算规则,提出了装备网络作战能力描述参数,给出了装备网络能力的矩阵计算方法,进行了影响因素分析,最后通过实例验证了方法可行性、有效性和灵活性。     

Optimal stocking policies for low usage items in multi-echelon inventory systems

Multi-echelon logistic systems are essential parts of the service support function of high technology firms. The combination of technological developments and competitive pressures has led to the development of services systems with a unique set of characteristics. These characteristics include (1) low demand probabilities: (2) high cost items; (3) complex echelon structures; (4) existence of pooling mechanisms among stocking locations at the same echelon level; (5) high priority for service, which is often expressed in terms of response time service levels for product groups of items: (6) scrapping of failed parts; and (7) recycling of issued stock due to diagnostic use. This article develops a comprehensive model of a stochastic, multi-echelon inventory system that takes account of the above characteristics. Solutions to the constrained optimization problem are found using a branch and bound procedure. The results of applying this procedure to a spare parts inventory system for a computer manufacturer have led to a number of important policy conclusions.