防空反导机理分析及筹划决策

由弹道导弹、新一代战机、临近空间飞行器和智能无人系统等组成的空天一体化打击系统已成为空天防御面临的巨大威胁与挑战.本文首先从战场环境、空天打击特点和防空反导特点等角度分析防空反导作战的内在机理,对防空反导作战部署、拦截打击、协同规则等典型作战规则展开了探索设计,提出包含预先筹划、应急筹划和战时临机调控的防空反导筹划流程...     

国家空天防御面临的十大威胁

空天防御是信息化空天时代主要作战样式之一,是新时代国家防空概念的拓展。本文分析了国家空天防御面临的空天侦察、航空空间目标、弹道目标、航天空间目标、临近空间目标、电磁空间、网络空间、空天跨域攻击、"低慢小"非军事目标和非传统空天等十大威胁,及其对国家空天防御作战体系提出的严峻挑战。     

基于深度学习的空天防御态势感知方法

空天防御态势感知是实现空天防御战场透明化,降低信息复杂度,提升空天防御作战指挥决策支撑能力的前提和基础。系统分析了未来空天防御战场态势感知面临的巨大威胁和挑战,提出了复杂信息对抗条件下态势信息数据挖掘、融合处理、意图预测的能力需求,在此基础上结合深度学习的特征提取能力,构建了基于深度学习理论的空天防御态势感知体系结构,最后探讨了关键技术,为未来空天防御态势感知技术的发展提供了新的思路。     

以智赋能构建现代化空天防御体系北大核心

当前,大国战略竞争态势加剧,“全域联合作战”、“马赛克战”、“分布式防御”等新型作战概念为空天安全对抗带来新的威胁与挑战。以大国战略竞争为背景,分析了现代化空天防御体系的要素齐备性、架构开放性、体系对抗性和能力汇聚性等特征,研究了空天防御体系智能化发展所面临的挑战,给出了空天防御体系智能化发展的重点,提出了未来智能化空天防御体系“运行敏捷化、对抗强健化、管控高效化”的发展愿景,为空天防御体系现代化建设发展提供了新思路。     

空天一体化分布式防御系统及其关键技术发展分析

结合未来空天一体化分布式作战特点,系统性地概述了当前空天一体化防御系统的现状与不足,并对空天一体化分布式防御系统的发展进行了详细分析;总结了空天一体化分布式防御系统所需的关键技术,并给出了相应的发展建议.     

基于复杂网络的空天防御作战指挥体系结构优化研究

空天防御是维护国家安全的重要屏障,空天防御的核心问题是作战指挥问题,探索研究空天防御作战指挥体系结构具有十分重要的意义。以美国空天防御作战指挥体系为例,对其指挥体系结构进行网络抽象,将指挥体系中的军事机构作为网络的节点,指挥或协同关系作为网络的边,建立了复杂网络模型。在传统的层级树状型指挥体系的基础上,用概率的高低来区分网络节点之间随机的横向联系,用复杂网络理论的相关测度对各种联系进行比较,并论述了它们在指挥效能和结构关系方面的差异。     

2022年世界防空反导综述及对我国发展启示

2022年世界军事格局发生深刻变化,俄乌冲突、朝鲜半岛局势风云变幻,不仅影响了热点地区与国家的装备布局,同时促使各国对未来防空反导能力建设进行深刻思考与动态调整。调研了2022年度美俄等世界主要军事强国在防空反导领域的发展情况,分析梳理了防空反导系统建设和技术的发展动向,并对我国的防空反导发展现状提出启示与建议,以期为未来复杂空天防御作战能力建设提供建议和参考。     

"空天一体防御"体系下的俄罗斯反导防御

随着空天一体作战形态的出现,空天领域的对抗决定未来军事行动的进程和战争的胜败.目前反导防御在俄罗斯大力加强的"空天一体防御"体系建设中仍然处于核心地位.对"空天一体防御"体系下的俄罗斯反导防御存在的问题、发展现状和趋势进行了分析和研究,详细论述了俄军重整升级反导信息保障系统、战略导弹防御系统和战术导弹防御系统的技术方法和内容.     

空天防御发射技术发展研究

在世界新军事变革形势下,随着空天攻防技术不断发展,空天防御的发射技术也得到了发展与完善.以国内外典型空天防御产品为例,开展了发射技术的未来发展趋势综合技术研究,提出了空天防御体系中发射技术将向通用化、网络化和功能扁平化等方向发展的观点,并为此展开了详细论述.     

对我国军事经济安全的思考

军事经济安全是国家安全的重要组成部分,是新世纪军事经济领域的重大研究课题之一。本文在探讨军事经济安全内涵的基础上,对我国军事经济安全面临的威胁进行了分析,提出为了维护我国的军事经济安全,必须大力发展经济,增强我国的综合国力;结合西部大开发战略的实施,合理规划军事经济布局;建立完备的防空打击系统和地下防御系统等对策建议。     

美军航天力量发展走势分析

美军一直奉行全球战略极度依赖天基信息支援。美军航天力量在夺取制天权,确保战时进入、利用太空自由,为海外军事行动提供信息支撑方面发挥决定性作用。美军认为航天领域颠覆性技术的应用将会迅速而深刻地颠覆传统战争规则,是应对新兴国家军事威胁,实施第三次"抵消战略"的核心技术。美军高度重视航天力量装备规划、体制编制、理论研究和人才培养的创新发展。研究近年来美军航天力量的建设发展重点,可以透过其一系列的航天力量发展规划,得出美军航天力量发展战略和走势,具有强的启示性。     

National security,military spending and the business cycle

This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model where national security is an argument in the agent’s utility function and the government chooses optimally the level of military spending to maximize social welfare. National defense depends on military expenditure and on the strategic environment reflecting a potential hostile external threat. We use aggregate data on consumption, investment, and military spending for the US economy to estimate the parameters of the model. Estimation results suggest that consumption and national defense are complements and that military spending variability is mainly explained by external threat shocks although it also depends on the macroeconomic conditions. We compute impulse response functions of the main macroeconomic variables to several shocks: a total factor productivity shock, a defense technology shock, and a strategic environment shock. Surprisingly, we find that the optimal response to an increase in the external threat (a worsening in the strategic environment) will rise output by reducing consumption and increasing investment.     

Stopping Suicide Attacks: Optimal Strategies and Unintended Consequences

We study the behavior of defense spending in Switzerland over 1975–2001. Our main interest is in determining how neutrality in international affairs (non‐membership in military alliances) affects defense spending. We find that neutrality is associated with a perception of lower levels of external threat; hence it confers economic benefits in the form of a smaller defense burden. However, neutrality does not fully insulate a country from variations in the level of external threat in the global system as perceived by members of military alliances. Swiss defense spending has tracked very closely the spending trends – but at a lower average level – of the United States and other NATO countries. To the extent that post‐Cold War threats, such as international terrorism, materialize primarily in the context of existing security alliances, Swiss military spending patterns observed in 1975–2001 are likely to remain the same in the future.     

美国太空安全领域最新发展分析

美国认为太空已被普遍认定为最重要的作战域之一,未来的太空安全态势将愈发严峻。本文认为, 美国正面向未来太空对抗环境进行全面转型, 从顶层战略、作战理论、组织结构、战备训练、装备技术等方面开展研究、调整和长远布局, 如以我为主要对手谋划布局、发布系列军事航天顶层指导文件、大幅增加太空攻防作战相关经费投入等。 目前, 美军正处于新旧体系转换、 下一代能力构建发展的关键期, 不仅正在变革军队组织体制、重组太空攻防作战力量, 还积极开展系列演习演训, 以加速形成太空攻防实战能力。美军这一系列动向将对未来太空领域安全与发展产生重大影响, 应引起我高度重视。     

加快推动国防科技和武器装备军民融合发展

国防科技和武器装备领域是军民融合发展的重点,也是衡量军民融合发展水平的重要标志。加快国防科技和武器装备军民融合发展,是保军强军的重要支撑,更关乎国家安全和发展一系列重大问题,必须从战略高度深刻领会其全局意义,以清醒头脑研判国防科技和武器装备军民融合发展形势,用务实举措推动国防科技和武器装备军民融合创新发展。     

SECURITY SECTOR PLANNING IN AFRICA

The security sector in Africa has often been a threat to citizens instead of being a benefit. Military leaders, feared by politicians for their ability to seize power by force, are often reluctant to be open about problems within the military. The lack of dialogue between politicians, citizens and soldiers has made it difficult for the real problems to be identified or addressed. States need to take stock of their security sector assets, decide how they are to be used and then agree on a clear vision for the future of the military forces within the context of the broader national interest. A defence review, the restructuring of personnel, and a transparent budgeting process can all help to achieve a more motivated and better-equipped force. A properly planned transition from the old system to the new will ensure that only manageable steps are attempted and long-term goals are not sacrificed because of short-term crises.     

用于任务规划的航母编队防空威胁建模

建立正确的航母编队防空威胁模型是反航母任务规划成功的前提,在分析网络化条件下航母编队综合防空反导体系作战特点基础上,综合考虑反舰导弹性能、防空雷达网和编队防空火力威胁等因素,利用加权指数方法建立了网络化条件下航母编队综合防空网络威胁模型。仿真结果表明该模型能够体现航母网络化防空体系的真实情况,可以用于反航母任务规划。     

Security Cooperation Issues in the Western Hemisphere

Building regional security cooperation in the Western Hemisphere is not a strictly short-term, unilateral or bilateral defense effort. Regional security will only result from a long-term, cooperative, multilateral civil-military effort. A viable framework for success includes the need to advance hemispheric understanding of the security concerns of each country and those that the region as a whole faces (for example, the internal and external threat(s) to security). Finally, these issues and associated recommendations demand a carefully staffed and phased regional security plan of action, with measurable short- and long-term objectives to validate its planning and implementation. The basic directions for a regional security plan, as identified at the Miami conference, are as follow.     

Modelling the demand for national security expenditure: a note

In the past, national security for the majority of countries was almost exclusively associated with an external military threat emanating from a rival state(s). This was reflected in the standard models for the demand for military expenditure. The emergence of new security challenges such as terrorism, transnational crime networks, failed and rogue states, has profoundly affected the international security environment and the concept of national security. This note develops a model for the demand for national security expenditure adopting a broader, more inclusive definition of national security and includes concomitant budgetary outlets to meet the new security challenges.