非对称Colonel Blotto博弈模型下的多信道功率分配抗干扰

针对智能干扰条件下传输速率固定的通信系统多信道功率分配问题,建立了非对称Colonel Blotto博弈模型。在完全信息条件下,推导出了各种功率预算约束下通信方和干扰方的等效单信道最优功率分配策略,进而证明了通信方和干扰方存在唯一混合纳什均衡策略,并求得了纳什均衡收益。基于等效单信道最优功率分布,提出了一种多重扫描直接列元素交换算法,可以快速构建多信道混合功率分配矩阵,且相比于线性规划方法,可适应更多的信道数和更广的功率分布范围。通过数值仿真,验证了所提多信道混合功率分配矩阵构造算法的有效性及多信道功率分配策略的最优性。     

Timely exposure of a secret project: Which activities to monitor?

A defender wants to detect as quickly as possible whether some attacker is secretly conducting a project that could harm the defender. Security services, for example, need to expose a terrorist plot in time to prevent it. The attacker, in turn, schedules his activities so as to remain undiscovered as long as possible. One pressing question for the defender is: which of the project's activities to focus intelligence efforts on? We model the situation as a zero‐sum game, establish that a late‐start schedule defines a dominant attacker strategy, and describe a dynamic program that yields a Nash equilibrium for the zero‐sum game. Through an innovative use of cooperative game theory, we measure the harm reduction thanks to each activity's intelligence effort, obtain insight into what makes intelligence effort more effective, and show how to identify opportunities for further harm reduction. We use a detailed example of a nuclear weapons development project to demonstrate how a careful trade‐off between time and ease of detection can reduce the harm significantly.     

Can Governments Negotiate With Insurgents? The Latin American Experience

In June 2016, the Colombian Government and the FARC insurgent movement signed a ceasefire agreement, which brings the two sides one step closer to putting an end to over five decades of war. Unfortunately, Latin America has a rich history of insurgent movements, particularly during the cold war era, some of which continue to operate today. Most of these movements disappeared due to military operations, though some did so via peace negotiations. This essay aims to discuss the various ends of Latin American insurgencies to answer whether, indeed, insurgents can be negotiated with.     

试论我国的反恐怖主义立法构想——俄罗斯及中亚诸国反恐怖主义法的启示

当前,我国的反恐怖主义立法工作尚处于起步阶段,相关法律还未健全,同时也未形成一套完整的反恐怖主义法。因此,吸收和借鉴国外特别是俄罗斯和中亚诸国反恐法律的思想精髓,在明确概念、颁布专门的法典、设立专门的反恐机构等方面提出构想,进而推进我国的反恐立法工作,更有利于保障我国的社会稳定和经济的快速发展。     

恐怖主义意识形态概念探析

从意识形态的角度对恐怖主义进行研究,是一个比较新的研究视域,对恐怖主义意识形态概念的科学界定成为研究的理论起点。本文从对意识形态内涵特征的理解出发,以对恐怖主义概念的把握为桥梁,阐明恐怖主义意识形态概念成立的逻辑合理性。     

以色列反恐情报战略探讨

以色列是世界上第一个遭受国际恐怖主义威胁的国家。但通过明确分工和行之有效的反恐措施,以色列已经能够对付不断升级的恐怖主义威胁。自“9·11”事件以来,全球许多国家都开始向以色列求教国土安全方面的知识和专业技术。     

现代恐怖活动的形式特点及对策

警卫工作如何加强防范措施 ,以应对当前恐怖破坏活动不断发展变化的新形势 ,确保各项警卫任务的圆满完成 ,是警卫部队需要解决的重要课题。本文阐述了现代条件下恐怖活动的表现形式和特点 ,提出了警卫工作中反恐怖的对策。     

我国反恐系统化处置机制的建构

恐怖主义是威胁当今世界和平与稳定的主要因素。“藏独”和“疆独”是我国当前面临的主要恐怖势力。传统单一性的反恐处置模式在打击恐怖主义时很容易陷入顾此失彼的困难境地。坚持立足全局和放宽视野,从系统化的角度提出一套反恐处置战略具有十分重要的理论价值和实践意义。在反恐处置机制中,要充分发挥法律战的基础性作用、情报战的先导性作用、经济战的根源性作用、心理战的瓦解性作用、舆论战的宣传性作用以及协作战的堵截性作用。     

Does Income Inequality Derive the Separatist Terrorism in Turkey?

Separatist terrorism has been a severe problem for Turkey since the mid-1980s. The conventional wisdom contends that economic deprivation in southeastern Turkey is the fundamental reason for the long-running battle against the Kurdish rebels. Considering that there is limited empirical literature on the roots of terrorism in Turkey, yielding conflicting results about the claim that the main cause of terrorism is deprived economic conditions, this study aims to answer whether there is a causal relationship between income inequality and separatist terrorism in Turkey. To this end, the Global Terrorism Data Base for the period of 1973–2006, two Theil indices of pay inequality as proxy for income inequality, and the vector autoregression and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) methods are utilized. The results support the early findings that income inequality, a particular focus in this paper and an essential indicator of economic deprivation, is not a main cause of escalation of separatist terrorism in Turkey.     

SECURITY SECTOR PLANNING IN AFRICA

The security sector in Africa has often been a threat to citizens instead of being a benefit. Military leaders, feared by politicians for their ability to seize power by force, are often reluctant to be open about problems within the military. The lack of dialogue between politicians, citizens and soldiers has made it difficult for the real problems to be identified or addressed. States need to take stock of their security sector assets, decide how they are to be used and then agree on a clear vision for the future of the military forces within the context of the broader national interest. A defence review, the restructuring of personnel, and a transparent budgeting process can all help to achieve a more motivated and better-equipped force. A properly planned transition from the old system to the new will ensure that only manageable steps are attempted and long-term goals are not sacrificed because of short-term crises.