A note on the sensitivity of navy first term reenlistment to bonuses,unemployment and relative wages

Multiple regression analysis of first term reenlistment rates over the period 1968–1977 confirms previous findings that reenlistment is highly sensitive to unemployment at the time of reenlistment and shortly after enlistment, almost four years earlier. Bonuses, particularly lump sum bonuses, were also shown to be a significant determinant of reenlistment.     

Empirical Biases and Some Remedies in Estimating the Effects of Selective Reenlistment Bonuses on Reenlistment Rates

Researchers have, for decades, been attempting to estimate the effects of Selective Reenlistment Bonuses (SRBs) on the probability of reenlistment for the military services. SRBs are targeted to specific military occupations for which reenlistment rates are lower (or expected to be lower) than what is needed. This article first identifies four primary sources of biases affecting these models: reverse causality from supply shifts (a negative bias), the endogeneity of the decision point causing coded SRBs to be higher for reenlisters than leavers (a positive bias), measurement error (a likely negative bias), and excess supply preventing the full effect of an SRB change to materialize (a positive or negative bias). The report proceeds to develop a model that attempts to address the first two biases. With U.S. Navy data from FY2001-FY2008, I examine the extent to which these two biases are affecting the estimated SRB effects. Despite these corrections, the difficulty of addressing the other biases calls into doubt studies that examine the effects of retention bonuses or even the effects of the structure of military pay in general.     

MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: GRANGER CAUSALITY TESTS USING GLOBAL PANEL DATA

This paper investigates the empirical relationships between military expenditure and unemployment rates. A set of global panel data on 46 countries is utilized, and a panel data version of the Granger causality test is applied. The results indicate that there is little evidence of the causality running from unemployment to military expenditure regardless of how we measure military spending and determine group countries. In contrast, the causality running from military expenditure to unemployment receives empirical support if military expenditure is measured in terms of its share of GDP and if data are taken from middle‐ and low‐income countries or non‐OECD countries.     

The Impact of the Unemployment Rate on Attrition of First-Term Enlistees

This study examines the effects of home-state unemployment rates on attrition behavior of Navy enlistees for successive career windows during the first term of service: the first 6?months, the second 6?months, the second year, and the third year of service. The results indicate that attrition is negatively associated with changes in the local unemployment rate during the first three career windows covering two years of service. However, after two years of service, the estimated effect of the unemployment rate becomes insignificant for most groups of sailors. This is likely because sailors with the poorest job matches are sorted out early in the first term of service.     

The impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market in neighboring countries: empirical evidence from Jordan

This paper analyzes time-sensitive data on a humanitarian crisis in the Middle East. It aims to assess the impact of the steep influx of Syrian refugees into Jordan on the country’s labor market since the onset of the conflict in Syria (March 2011). As of August 2014, nearly three million registered Syrians have sought refuge in neighboring countries (Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey), according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Jordan and Lebanon are hosting the majority of them. This paper utilizes data regarding unemployment rates, employment rates, labor force participation, the number of refugees, and economic activity at the level of governorates. The vector autoregressive methodology is used to examine time series data from the most affected governorates in Jordan. The empirical results of Granger causality tests and impulse response functions show that there is no relationship between the influx of Syrian refugees and the Jordanian labor market. Our results are verified through a set of robustness checks.     

新疆少数民族大学生就业问题的社会学解读

少数民族大学生由于受地域环境、语言、民族风俗、思想观念等方面影响,就业形势不容乐观。做好少数民族大学生的就业工作,长远来说关乎新疆长治久安和跨越式发展。本文基于社会学视角,从社会结构、社会制度和社会资本三方面分析了影响新疆少数民族大学生就业难的原因,并提出相关对策,以期为有效解决新疆少数民族大学生就业问题提供借鉴。     

The causal nexus between military spending and unemployment in the G7: a bootstrap panel causality test

We revisit the causal relationship between military spending and unemployment in the G7 countries applying a bootstrap panel causality analysis that accounts for both cross-sectional dependence and for heterogeneity across countries. Using per capita real GDP as a controlled variable, we found a unidirectional causality running from military spending to unemployment for Canada, Japan, and the US, one-way causality running from unemployment to military spending for France and Germany, and bidirectional causality for Italy and the UK. The empirical evidence does not seem to provide consistent results regarding the causal relationship between military spending and unemployment in G7 countries.     

ANALYSING THE DETERMINANTS OF TERRORISM IN TURKEY USING GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION

This paper investigates the determinants of provincial terrorism in Turkey taking spatial dimension into account for the time period 1990–2006. Following a traditional global regression analysis, spatial variations in the relationships are examined with geographically weighted regression (GWR) to obtain locally different parameter estimates. Empirical results indicate that increases in income and schooling ratio tend to reduce the provincial average level of terrorism, whereas an increase in unemployment enhances it. Moreover, GWR results indicate that the provincial effects of per capita income and education are more pronounced for the Eastern and South Eastern provinces compared to the Western provinces.     

Military expenditure and unemployment in the OECD

The effect of military expenditure on employment is a matter of considerable importance. However, few of the standard economic analyses of unemployment take any explicit account of variations in military expenditure in their models. The purpose of this paper is to assess whether the prevalent neglect of this variable in labour economics is justified.

The paper briefly surveys previous estimates made of the employment effects of military expenditure. It then considers evidence from the simple dynamic reduced form regressions estimated on long historical series for the US and the UK and pooled post‐war data for 11 OECD countries. It does not suggest that the share of military expenditure is a significant influence on the unemployment rate. This implies that in analysing unemployment no special account need be taken of military expenditure and that the fear that reductions in the share of military expenditure will be associated with higher average unemployment levels is misplaced.     

Recruiters,advertising, and navy enlistments

Regression analysis is used to estimate the effects on Navy enlistments of recruiters, advertising, unemployment and other factors. In measuring the effects of these factors on enlistments, changes in both the demand for and supply of enlistments are taken into account. Advertising is treated as a capital investment; its effect is estimated using a maximum likelihood technique that was developed for measuring the effects of capital investments. We find strong evidence that recruiters and unemployment increase enlistments. Advertising also seems to increase enlistments, but its effect is highly uncertain. The results suggest that increases in recruiting resources would have eliminated the enlistment shortfalls experienced by the Navy in FY 1978–79.     

Defense Spending and Unemployment in France

France has received little attention in the literature of defense economics, despite some outstanding features of the country’s situation. This study attempts to partially fill this gap with new empirical evidence which evaluates the influence of military expenditure on the unemployment rate between 1975 and 2008. Our estimation is based on the ARDL approach to cointegration. The results reveal that both defense and non-defense spending exert a negative influence on unemployment but that defense spending has a higher negative impact.     

Defense spending and the macroeconomy

Given Kinsella's (1990, 1991) appeal for analysis to be pursued using sub‐annual level of data, we pursue such an endeavor in this paper. We examime the effect of defence spending on real output, the unemployment rate, price level, and interest rate covering a quarterly time frame 1960:1 to 1988:1 using an unrestricted vector autoregression framework. Our results parallel the findings of Kinsella in that there appears no causal relationship in either direction between defence spending and economic performance.     

Unemployed youth: ‘time bombs’ or engines for growth?

While popular narratives about success in South Africa focus on individual effort, accidents of birth continue to determine life prospects. Inequalities in early childhood development, health, and education narrow the range of possibilities that young people have available to them, and this impacts on their risk appetite, including, through the workings of the maturing brain, a propensity to violence, substance abuse, and unsafe sex. New technology offers young people an unprecedented ability to organise and network. This fact, combined with high levels of youth dissatisfaction, unemployment, and marginalisation, leads many to worry that the young are “ticking time bombs”. While there certainly are risks, great unused pools of youth labour also present an opportunity for engaging them in social advancement programmes. Structured youth service is a tried and tested policy option that, when implemented as part of an integrated youth development strategy, can enlist thousands of young people in devoting their considerable energies to leadership for the public good.     

Piracy,state capacity and root causes

By comparing the Somali experience of piracy with the emerging situation in the Gulf of Guinea, I show that increases in the enforcement aspects of state capacity in the Gulf of Guinea states are necessary but not sufficient tools to combat the emergence, growth, and institutionalisation of piracy. Such tools would require state-building measures that would minimise the incentives of individuals to join piracy organisations and they would have to effectively deal with youth unemployment, income inequality, and environmental degradation.     

基于层次方法和PCA特征变换的宫颈细胞识别

对宫颈细胞多分类,可以自动识别出不同状态的细胞,进而为宫颈癌诊断提供科学依据。在用6种多分类算法实验后,选取支持向量机（SVM）作为基分类器,先用一对一策略（one- versus -one）训练6个分类器进行3分类,然后再训练1个2分类器,这种二层4分类方法提高了识别准确率。又考虑不同层特征模式的差异性,在保证识别性能同时,每层分类前先采用主成分分析（PCA）法将原始154维特征变换到低维空间,去除冗余特征,加快识别速度。实验证明,所提层次PCA法在宫颈细胞分类中相比6种传统多分类方法有更高的识别准确率,可达90%以上;识别速度也较普通层次法提升了21.31%。     

Value management of diagnostic equipment with cancelation,no‐show,and emergency patients

Magnetic resonance imaging and other multifunctional diagnostic facilities, which are considered as scarce resources of hospitals, typically provide services to patients with different medical needs. This article examines the admission policies during the appointment management of such facilities. We consider two categories of patients: regular patients who are scheduled in advance through an appointment system and emergency patients with randomly generated demands during the workday that must be served as soon as possible. According to the actual medical needs of patients, regular patients are segmented into multiple classes with different cancelation rates, no‐show probabilities, unit value contributions, and average service times. Management makes admission decisions on whether or not to accept a service request from a regular patient during the booking horizon to improve the overall value that could be generated during the workday. The decisions should be made by considering the cancelation and no‐show behavior of booked patients as well as the emergency patients that would have to be served because any overtime service would lead to higher costs. We studied the optimal admission decision using a continuous‐time discrete‐state dynamic programming model. Identifying an optimal policy for this discrete model is analytically intractable and numerically inefficient because the state is multidimensional and infinite. We propose to study a deterministic counterpart of the problem (i.e., the fluid control problem) and to develop a time‐based fluid policy that is shown to be asymptotically optimal for large‐scale problems. Furthermore, we propose to adopt a mixed fluid policy that is developed based on the information obtained from the fluid control problem. Numerical experiments demonstrate that this improved policy works effectively for small‐scale problems. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 287–304, 2016     

Maritime security and capacity building in the Gulf of Guinea: On comprehensiveness,gaps, and security priorities

It is widely acknowledged that maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea is a highly complex phenomenon involving a variety of issues (legal deficiencies, inadequate military equipment, and challenges like corruption, political unrest and youth unemployment) as well as a multiplicity of external responders. To make sense of the impact that external actors have when they address this complex problem through various maritime capacity building endeavours, this article argues that there is a need to understand the attractiveness of capacity building vis-à-vis the widely acknowledged need for a comprehensive approach, as well as the difficulties of translating the potential for comprehensiveness into practice (as important aspects of the problem remain largely unaddressed). Further, it is argued that it is important to appreciate that even if these gaps – i.e. the aspects that maritime capacity building currently leaves unaddressed – represent a ‘failure’ to deliver a comprehensive response, they are at the same time illustrative of how the maritime capacity building activities of various external actors also ‘succeed’ in having an impact on this regional security landscape – for instance, by influencing how certain aspects of this multifaceted problem are prioritised, whilst others are only marginally addressed, if at all.     

THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF MILITARY BASE REALIGNMENTS AND CLOSURES IN GERMANY

We identify the causal effect of a reduction in military personnel on a number of socioeconomic indicators within the peripheries of military bases. The base realignments and closures in Germany are used as an exogenous source of variation that allows us to identify the effect of a demand shock on household income, output, unemployment, and tax revenue within a specified buffer zone around each base. The analysis covers 298 communities for the period 2003–2007. Consistent with evidence found elsewhere, we find that these base adjustments have only a marginal impact on the local community in which the bases are located.     

大规模 MIMO系统中用户分层变长时隙分配方法研究

大规模MIMO系统时分双工模式中分配的物理时隙长度是固定的,不能根据不同时长的信道相干时间灵活地调整长度,二者长度的不匹配导致部分时频资源的浪费,因此系统的总体容量不能达到最优。针对此问题本文提出一种用户分层变长时隙分配方法,即根据不同终端的移动性对终端进行分层,并为不同层中的移动终端灵活地分配不同时长的物理时隙,使物理时隙长度与移动终端所对应信道的相干时长相匹配,从而减少时频资源的浪费,提高了资源利用率。同时,避免了低速移动终端过频繁的信道估计,降低了信道训练序列开销,使系统的总体数据容量得到很大的提升。实验仿真结果验证了本文所提方法的有效性。     

Accounting for army recruitment: White and non-white soldiers and the British Army

A statistically based enquiry into recruitment into the British Army over the period 1987-2000 shows that two factors tend to induce young men to enlist: high levels of unemployment in the civilian sector and positive signals from the authorities that the Army is in a recruiting phase. The same result obtains, broadly speaking, in the context of both white and non-white (ethnic minority) recruitment, although the willingness of ethnic minority young men to contemplate an Army career is only about a quarter of that of white men, other things being equal. Correspondingly, the Army shows no signs of reaching the target agreed with the Commission for Racial Equality in 1997 for a 1 percentage point increase annually in the percentage of recruits being drawn from the ethnic minorities. This article has something to say about how the Army might improve its performance in this regard by offering more in-service training and education to otherwise underqualified recruits and concentrating recruitment effort on regions of high ethnic minority unemployment.