DAR ES SALAAM

Countries in transition often experience increased levels of crime, making their citizens vulnerable to the exploits of criminals. The lack of reliable statistics hampers the development of sound crime reduction strategies. This essay considers the value of victim surveys as additional sources of information to augment official police data. It presents the findings of such a survey undertaken in Dar es Salaam and compares them with findings obtained in similar surveys of Cape Town, Durban, Pretoria and Johannesburg. The information obtained in the survey conducted in Dar es Salaam provides valuable insights into crime rates and patterns. In comparing the results of the survey in Dar es Salaam, some interesting trends emerged around the theft of vehicle parts and vehicle theft, violent crimes, the levels of violence employed in burglaries and the use of weapons. The information gleaned from these surveys will go far in developing crime reduction strategies and measures that will be effective and appropriately targeted.     

Landmarks in defense literature

The Face of Battle: by John Keegan. Jonathan Cape, London, 1976; Viking Press, New York, 1976; Penguin Books, Harmondsworth, 1978, 1983, 1984.     

重庆大学城新校区水体景观规划分析——以后勤工程学院、重庆大学、重庆师范大学、重庆医科大学为例

随着大学校区建设不断发展,校园景观的功能也日益突出,水体景观因其灵动与活力的特征,被广泛应用于校园景观建设中。通过对重庆大学城已入驻的4所高校水体景观的实地调研,发现新校区水体景观规划中存在的问题。在分析这4所高校的基地条件、校园文化以及水体景观布局的基础上,提出了高校水体景观规划的4种理念:打造生态活水系;创造丰富的视觉效果;突出水体景观文化特色;体现人文关怀。旨在为校园水体景观建设提供参考。     

城镇化对察布查尔县锡伯族语言发展的影响研究

随着经济发展和社会进步,城镇化也带来了一系列的问题,城镇化进程中的语言问题应当引起高度重视。本文在城镇化背景下,选取新疆察布查尔锡伯自治县的3个城镇区域为样本(爱新舍里镇、察布查尔镇、种羊场),调查城镇化给不同区域的锡伯族人的语言使用所带来的影响。通过数据分析,我们认为城镇化将扩大国家通用语的使用范围,增加国家通用语和锡伯语语言接触的深度,将进一步改变锡伯族的语言观念,城镇化的发展将增加锡伯族语言转用人群。最后提出城镇化与察布查尔县锡伯族语言和谐发展的对策,解决语言生活中的实际问题。     

积极探索,推进兵团城镇化发展步伐——石河子总场小城镇建设的调查报告

“小城镇 ,大战略”。发展小城镇是促进团场经济社会发展的重要战略措施。 1 999年 1 2月北泉镇正式成立 ,成为兵团第一个建制、自治区第一个全国小城镇综合改革试点单位。石总场城镇建设的经验 ,对加快兵团小城镇建设步伐具有重要意义     

Book reviews

Red Banner: the Soviet Military System in Peace and War. By Christopher Donnelly. Jane's Information Group, Coulsdon, UK (1988), 288 pp., £35.00

Images of T. E. Lawrence. By S. E. Tabachnick and C. Matheson. Jonathan Cape, London (1988); The Letters of T. E. Lawrence. Edited by Malcolm Brown. Dent, London (1988); T. E. Lawrence. By J. Wilson. National Portrait Gallery Publications, London (1988); Lawrence and the Arab Revolts. By D. Nicolle. Osprey, London (1989)

Liddell Hart and the Weight of History. By John Mearsheimer. Brassey's, London (1989), £15.95

Science and Mythology in the Making of Defence Policy. Edited by Margaret Blunden and Owen Greene. Brassey's, London (1989), £27.50/$44.00

Warfare in the Twentieth Century. Edited by Colin McInnes and G. D. Sheffield. Unwin Hyman, London (1988), 239 pp., £25.00     

How to deal with consumers who group to request a discount?

We investigate operations impacts of consumer‐initiated group buying (CGB), whereby consumers voluntarily form buying groups to negotiate bulk deals with retailers. This differs from regular purchasing whereby consumers visit retailers individually and pay posted prices. Upon the visit by group consumers, a retailer decides to forgo or satisfy their demand in its entirety. Turned down by a retailer, group consumers continue to visit other retailers. In the case where their group effort fails to conclude a deal, some group consumers switch to individual purchasing provided they receive a non‐negative utility by doing so. Even after a successful group event, the group consumers who forgo the event out of utility concern may switch to individual purchasing as well. Retailer competition, group size, and the chance that group consumers switch to individual purchasing upon unsatisfaction are crucial to how retailers adjust operations to deal with CGB. With retailer competition, the rise of CGB results in every consumer paying the same reduced price when group size is small but makes group consumers pay more than by purchasing individually when group size is large. This has mixed consequences on the profits for retailers in both absolute and relative terms.     

有限群的极大子群的正规指数

有限群的结构与其子群性质间的关系问题是群论的一个重要研究方向,通过群的极大子群、正规子群、半正规子群、极大子群的正规指数等去研究群的可解性,超可解性、幂零性等,已有一系列结果.应用极小反例方法,利用有限群极大子群的正规指数,得到了一个有限群是π-可解群的充分条件,2个有限群是π-可解群的充分必要条件.     

宽带模糊函数的群论解释及小波变换求解

讨论了各种形式的宽带模糊函数,通过群论分析表明,它们都可解释为二维不可约仿射群U表示的矩阵系数,因此其性质可通过对仿射群的研究作出解释。还讨论了宽带模糊函数与小波变换的关系,并由此导出其高效的小波变换求解方法。     

Group testing procedures with quantitative features and incomplete identification

We present a group testing model for items characterized by marker random variables. An item is defined to be good (defective) if its marker is below (above) a given threshold. The items can be tested in groups; the goal is to obtain a prespecified number of good items by testing them in optimally sized groups. Besides this group size, the controller has to select a threshold value for the group marker sums, and the target number of groups which by the tests are classified to consist only of good items. These decision variables have to be chosen so as to minimize a cost function, which is a linear combination of the expected number of group tests and an expected penalty for missing the desired number of good items, subject to constraints on the probabilities of misclassifications. We treat two models of this kind: the first one is based on an infinite population size, whereas the second one deals with the case of a finite number of available items. All performance measures are derived in closed form; approximations are also given. Furthermore, we prove monotonicity properties of the components of the objective function and of the constraints. In several examples, we study (i) the dependence of the cost function on the decision variables and (ii) the dependence of the optimal values of the decision variables (group size, group marker threshold, and stopping rule for groups classified as clean) and of the target functionals (optimal expected number of tests, optimal expected penalty, and minimal expected cost) on the system parameters.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

处理群体性事件应注意的语言方法艺术

随着新旧体制的更换、经济转轨和社会转型,由各种社会矛盾引发的群体性事件愈来愈多,并呈现愈来愈复杂和激烈的特点。但是绝大部分群体性事件仍然属于人民内部矛盾,只能采取团结-批评-团结、说理教育等解决人民内部矛盾的方法来平息,因而对领导干部掌握正确的处理群体性事件的语言方法艺术提出了紧迫而严格的现实要求。本文正是从这一现实背景出发,通过分析群体性事件的特点,结合各级各部门多年来处理群体性事件的经验,提出处理群体性事件应注意的十点语言方法艺术。     

群时延傅里叶分解模型及其估计方法

建立了基于三角函数级数的群时延模型,并理论证明了仅采用有限阶数的三角函数群时延即可表征任意群时延对信号相关峰的影响。在此基础上,通过测量信号相关峰,并与不同三角函数群时延组合下的相关峰进行匹配搜索即可估计群时延的三角函数分解级数,从而估计得到相关峰影响等效的群时延特性。仿真中,采用该方法估计得到的群时延特性对滤波器进行修正后,信号相关峰与经过滤波器之前的信号相关峰高度吻合,时延估计偏差在0.1 ns之内。     

组合建模的航母战斗群威胁预警方法

根据航母战斗群的运动特性,提出用灰色模型与自回归时序组合建模方法构建其运动预测模型.依据此模型对双方火力控制区的变化进行预测,最后给出了航母战斗群威胁预警仿真系统的实现思路.解决了陆基常规导弹对抗航母战斗群的作战保障工程的部分问题,具有较强的军事应用价值.     

The Freudian trap in combat motivation theory

Theories of group, and individual, motivation to fight have shown little real advancement since World War II. The lively debate between the proponents of ‘primary group’ and ideological theories has tended to preclude any other analysis. The debate has continued to generalise from the experience of the Wehrmacht and its cohesion in the face of appalling destruction. In this article I suggest that the theoretical underpinnings of the debate have revolved around one particular, and somewhat unrecognised, concept of the mind. Work on combat motivation owes a substantial debt to Freudian ideas concerning the unconscious and group psychology. Both sides of the ideology/primary group debate use Freudian ideas, often without realising it, and these concepts shape the various positions taken. Only by acknowledging and examining this underpinning can the debate move forward and produce a more general theory of combat motivation and group conflict with wider application.     

基于NTP协议的一种校时实现及相关算法

提出一种基于NTP协议的系统校时实现方法及相关算法,将该算法用于大型电子信息系统中,以外部精确时间源和系统中若干台稳定主机构造NTP服务器群,并用NTP服务器群对系统中其它所有网络主机进行精确校时,得到了毫秒级的校时精度。     

TERRORISM AND DETERRENCE POLICY WITH TRANSNATIONAL SUPPORT 1

This study provides an explanation of terrorism by examining interactions between the terrorist group with a minority as a potential pool of recruits and the government supported by a majority. A hawkish deterrence policy makes it more risky for terrorists to launch attacks, but heightens the anti‐government feeling of the terrorist group. In addition, the payoff for the government depends not only on the payoff loss associated with the level of terrorism, but also on the political payoff from the action itself of adopting a hawk policy due to its politicians’ vested interests. We first show that whether the deterrence policy should be ‘hawk to ‘dove is closely dependent on the relationships among the risk associated with terrorism, the anti‐government feeling of the terrorist group, and the political payoff for the government. This study then introduces transnational support enhancing the capability of a terrorist group to intensify its activity and shows that the emergence of transnational support may cause the government to reform its deterrence policy from ‘dove’ toward ‘hawk,’ with terrorism intensified in the society.     

团体沙盘游戏疗法在大学新生适应问题干预中的应用

团体沙盘游戏疗法是沙盘疗法的一个组成部分,因其独特的教育和治疗功能,特别适合大学新生适应性训练。本文针对大学新生自我认识、情绪管理、人际关系等适应性问题,利用团体沙盘游戏进行了干预研究,取得了很好的教育效果。     

“沉默的螺旋”理论对军队思想政治教育的启示

“沉默的螺旋”理论启示我们：思想政治教育要通过“增强主旋律的影响力、发挥军人群体认同的渲染作用、发挥军人群体规范的制约作用、注重典型示范”来营造强大的“教育场”,以提高教育效果。     

Ethnicity,class, and civil war: the role of hierarchy,segmentation, and cross-cutting cleavages

Why are some countries prone to ethno-nationalist conflict, whereas others are plagued by class conflict? This is a question that has seldom been raised and rarely been examined empirically. This paper presents a social-structural theory to account for the variable incidence of these two forms of political instability. These two types of conflict result from distinct principles of group solidarity – ethnicity and class – and since each individual is simultaneously a member of an ethnic group (or many such groups) and a particular class, these two principles vary in the degree to which they are mutually exclusive or cross-cutting. The degree of economic stratification between groups and economic segmentation within them shapes the relative salience of each principle of group solidarity in any society and is associated with a characteristic form of political mobilization. In places where between-group inequalities are high, and within-group inequalities low, ethnicity should be the dominant principle of group solidarity and serve as the primary basis of group conflict. By contrast, in countries where between-group inequalities are low, and within-group inequalities high, class is more likely to serve as the dominant principle of group solidarity, and conflicts along class lines are more likely. We test these conjectures with data in over 100 countries on cross-cutting cleavages, ethnic war, and class conflict. The results are supportive of the theory, and provide evidence that how groups are stratified and segmented in societies shapes the type of civil war.     

谈某小茶（酒）吧建筑群的消防安全问题及对策

小茶吧、小酒吧等场所人员密集,建筑布局杂乱,火灾隐患突出,且消防监管易于疏漏。以苏州市金阊区石路商圈茶（酒）吧建筑群为例,在实地调查和统计的基础上,分析了该商圈茶（酒）吧建筑群的消防安全现状和存在的消防安全问题,有针对性的提出了治理对策。