Addressing the “headwinds” faced by the European arms industry

ABSTRACT

The European arms industry is challenged by several adverse “headwinds.” Fragmentation leads to costly duplications and, in conjunction with stagnating budgets and sharply increasing costs, prevents firms from exploiting economies of scale and learning. This is exacerbated by size differentials vis-a-vis the leading US arms manufacturers and competition from emerging producers. As some “headwinds” are self-enforcing, far-reaching industrial and policy responses are required to improve the industry's outlook. As exports may not indefinitely compensate for low domestic demand, there is an economic imperative for further cross-border collaboration and consolidation. Despite various EU policy initiatives, progresses regarding the European Defence Equipment Market and strengthening the European Defence Technological Industrial Base have been relatively slow. It remains to be seen whether the European Defence Fund will be the proclaimed “game-changer,” raising competitiveness of the European arms industry. At the same time, the UK's withdrawal from the EU adds uncertainties.     

The end of the “INF Treaty” and the US-China military balance

ABSTRACT

Whereas much of the debate about the demise of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has focused on the European context and Russia’s alleged treaty violations, Asia looms large in the minds of proponents of the United States’s immediate withdrawal from the treaty. For many proponents, the fast-changing military balance in Asia and China's conventionally armed missiles constitute a sufficient cause for withdrawal. What does the end of the INF Treaty bode for the US-China military balance? This article argues that, although there are some near-term benefits for the US position in the conventional military balance with China, the advantages offered by prohibited missiles are minor and can be readily substituted by extant capabilities that are compliant with the treaty. Given the negative implications of the end of the INF Treaty for the future of arms control, the costs and benefits of withdrawing from the treaty require further examination; the military balance in Asia is an unpersuasive rationale for withdrawing from an important part of the arms-control architecture.     

Confronting the “Perpetual Menace to Human Security”

Nuclear weapon states historically have attached great secrecy to their nuclear weapon and fissile material production programs and stockpiles, despite warnings that this would fuel fears, handicap informed debate and decision making, and drive arms races. As evidenced by the “Action Plan on Nuclear Disarmament” agreed upon at the 2010 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) Review Conference, however, the international community now sees greater transparency about nuclear weapon and fissile material stocks as necessary for enabling and monitoring progress toward nuclear disarmament. To support this effort, the International Panel on Fissile Materials has proposed a step-by-step program for weapon states to declare their inventories, production histories, and disposition of nuclear warheads and fissile materials, and to set up joint projects to develop methods for verifying these declarations. This openness initiative is described here, and could be adopted at the 2015 NPT Review Conference, laying a basis for negotiating verifiable deep reductions in nuclear arsenals and their eventual elimination.     

UNCLOS and maritime security: the “securitisation” of the South China Sea disputes

This Critical Comment seeks to situate the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) within the context of South China Sea (SCS) dispute. Bearing in mind that maritime actions of the main disputants – China, Vietnam, and the Philippines – increasingly “securitise” these long-standing disputes and vice versa, the study examines the concept of a maritime “regime complex.” Whereas efforts have being made to examine UNCLOS and indeed the dispute within the framework of a maritime “regime complex,” the key finding shows that the increased “securitisation” of the disputes makes it difficult to envisage effective engagement of UNCLOS as a resolution mechanism. It will also reveal that China's firmly established expansionist agenda in the SCS region is indicative of Beijing's susceptibility to compromise a diplomatic solution to these long-standing disputes. These discoveries are structured around the knowledge that the spatial relation of the SCS critically espouses not only its geo-strategic significance in terms of natural resources endowment, but also the enduring maritime disputes within the region.     

“No boots on the ground”: the effectiveness of US drones against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

The number of US drone strikes against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen has increased significantly since 2010, but received limited academic attention. This article examines the effectiveness of this drone campaign using an existing theoretical framework. Crucially, we contribute to the framework by adding a fourth intervening variable, namely target correspondence. Through a single case study, it is found that drones have only enjoyed limited success in degrading AQAP's hierarchical structure, qualified human resources and access to key material resources, and in some cases – owing to our target correspondence analysis – this limited success has come at a price. It is found that drones have temporarily disrupted AQAP by successfully eliminating senior leaders involved in coordinating and overseeing external operations. Overall, AQAP's ability to hit Western targets remains significant.     

“Respect” as a personal attribute in the British Army

This article describes the results of research into the social phenomenon of “respect” as framed by junior members of the British Army, as part of a wider study into the Values and Standards of the British Army. This research was interview based, using qualitative analysis software to detect, manage, and draw conclusions from the qualitative data recorded in those interviews. The data indicated that the primary situation in which “respect” was visualised by the participants was the unit context, and that it comprised a combination of three different strands: respect for rank or “hierarchical respect,” “professional respect” for a person's military competence, and “personal respect” for an individual's character, personal behaviour, and attributes. The overall respect that an individual is given arises from the combination of these three areas. “Respect” as a concept was, in the soldiers’ characterisation, something that had to be earned (except for the “given” represented by rank) and was not stable: a person's fund of respect could go up or down in social value. Respect was also linked to trust: the more respect a person had, the more they could be trusted. Although the unit context was the primary one for discussing their framing of the concept of respect, many of the participants reported a wider dimension in which every human being deserves a basic level of respect simply for being human, and this level could not be forfeited.     

“Effing” the military: a political misunderstanding of management

The use of commercial business management techniques is widespread in all government departments, including the Ministry of Defence. This article examines the use of popular management techniques in the Armed Forces and argues that their application is misplaced. It looks at what the “effs” – “efficiency” and “effectiveness” – mean in the business world and to the Armed Forces. It compares the definitions both in business and the Armed Forces and finds that there are few, if any, situations where the same measurements can be applied. Whilst many management techniques are suited for business, the function of the Armed Forces and its output cannot be measured in the same way, complicated by the different metrics of “efficiency” in peace and in war. This difference may not be clearly understood by some politicians, or indeed by some senior military personnel. Using examples from some of the most popular management techniques such as “Lean” and “Agile” it is possible to see that their use might actually diminish the capabilities of the Armed Forces when it comes to performing their principal role – the use of force to achieve political objectives.     

Life in the “Gray Zone”: observations for contemporary strategists

The term “Gray Zone” is gaining in popularity as a way of describing contemporary security challenges. This article describes the “short-of-war” strategies – the fait accompli, proxy warfare, and the exploitation of ambiguous deterrence situations, i.e. “salami tactics” – that are captured by the term and offers several explanations for why state and non-state actors are drawn to these strategies. The analysis highlights why defense postures based on deterrence are especially vulnerable to the short-of-war strategies that populate the “Gray Zone.” The article concludes by suggesting how defense officials might adapt defense policies to life in the “Gray Zone.”     

The Normative Implications of “Knowing the Future” for Preventive War

What if claims about the future informed us about the intentions and the capabilities of our opponents to wage war against ourselves? Would and should the existing norms that restrict the preventive use of force change in the wake of such transformation? This article highlights the potential normative consequences of this change and discriminates between several possible normative evolutions. Would and should the “knowability of the future” alter radically the traditional rule of self-defense? This rule could indeed be jeopardized but, as I argue in this paper, it should not (and might not necessarily). However, the distinction between preemption and prevention could become obsolete. Future claims about security will also induce new security doctrines as knowledge about the future would be used to signal one’s intentions and deter one’s opponent. This change would also have a significant impact on accountability, as citizens would have a more active role in discussions over foreign policy. Moreover, new modes of predictions and forecasting will challenge the traditional role of experts whose biases have hampered their analyses and anticipations. Thus, trustworthy future claims could bring significant progress in both ethical and political terms as they would trigger a debate on the role of knowledge in democratic societies.     

“深”“新”“实”

举世瞩目的“两会”在融融的春光中落下帷幕,中央军委主席江泽民在参加解放军代表团全体会议时指出:“面对新的形势和任务,全军官兵要进一步增强忧患意识,牢记我军的根本职能,以强烈的政治责任感和使命感做好各项工作,为维护国家安全统一和全面建设小康社会作出新的贡献。”为了更好地学习贯彻“两会”精神,努力使民兵、预备役建设适应中国特色军事变革,我们必须在     

“Made in China”: an emerging brand in the global arms market

Possession of a brand is a sine qua non for economic success, not least because it connotes trust in delivering the value promised. Although Western arms exporters offer branded systems whose sales are influenced by price, there is a plethora of other economic variables, such as offset requirements and life-cycle support. Entrants to the international arms market will struggle without such arms “packages.” China’s entry, however, goes beyond the traditional economic paradigm. A four-stage historical model offers the backdrop for identifying the drivers that have forged its market entry into 55 countries worldwide. The strategy initially focused on sales of rudimentary military equipment for political purposes, but recently it has begun to commercialize exports, repositioning them from a low- to a high-tech sales trajectory. A Sino “brand” is thus emerging, reflecting both competitiveness and diplomatic considerations, especially non-interference in client state domestic affairs.     

“千里眼”·“顺风耳”·“飞毛腿”

正生活在吉林省边境地区的群众聚在一起唠家常时,谈论最多的是:"有了这些解民忧的‘千里眼'、保民安的‘顺风耳'和暧民心的"飞毛腿",咱老百姓这心里可踏实多了!""视频监控网"在为解民忧的"千里眼"今年6月1日早10点左右,徐女士一家带着孩子到长门县民族广场游玩,因一时大意,徐女上6岁小孙子突然没了踪影!一向视孩子为"心头肉"的徐女士当时就蒙了,慌了神的她气喘吁吁地跑到长门镇边防派出所向民警求助,接到报案后,民警立即到现场进行寻找。     

“经”“武”双星“兵书记”

1999年初,熊文修走马上任河南省睢县县委书记、县人武部党委第一书记后,睢县这片古老的土地焕发了勃勃生机,经济建设迅速驶入了快车道,武装工作打开了新局面。 在当书记的几年里,熊文修始终坚持抓经济不忘兴武装,经常把武装工作挂在心上,了解和过问武装工作情况。今年春节刚过,熊文修按照惯例到县人武部办公,在听取了部领导的工作汇报后,得知县民兵装备仓库报警设施陈旧、灵敏度不高、安全系数小。他当场表态,由县财政拿出专项经费,改善民兵仓库的报警设施。在抓人武部全面建设的同时,熊文修还高度重视基层武装干部队伍建设。他说:“着力提高专武干部队伍的素质,是抓好武装工作的关键。”在他的关心     

“尖兵”·“标兵”·“卫兵”

上海某预备役团注重发挥预备役部队组织健全、动员快速、纪律严明、突击力强的优势,扎实开展“生产建设当尖兵、精神文明当标兵、维护治安当卫兵”活动,形成了“团有典型、营有窗口、连有活动”的良好局面。他们积极引导预任军官立足本职岗位做贡献,争当生产骨干、技术能手、行业标兵和致富状元,在经济建设上发挥模范带头作用;组织预备役分队成建制参加重点工程、生态环境和农田水利建设,完成抢险救灾等急难险重任务;组织预任军官协助地方维护社会秩序,促进社会稳定;激励预任军官带头践行公民道德规范,倡导文明新风。近年来,该团连续多年被…     

Accreditation Fraud in Brazilian Military Hospitals: Why “Tone at the Top” Matters

This article shows under which circumstances fraudulent accreditation can occur in Brazilian military hospitals, calling attention to the tone at the top as a critical aspect of military fraud deterrence – and hence as a critical aspect of this branch of military ethics. The problems allegedly found in Brazilian military health institutions were revealed through in-depth interviews conducted with 29 professionals who reported to work or have worked in a Brazilian military hospital. These fraud allegations were mostly associated with false documentation and procedures designed to give the appearance that legal requirements for accreditation were met and could be traced back to a weak or corrupt “tone at the top” coming from military higher ranks.     

“指”“教”过后还须“导”

政治工作就是做人的工作,研究人的思想、心理和行为。政治指导员、教导员是部队一线政治工作的主体。顾名思义,指导,指点引导;教导,教育引导。“指”“教”后之“导”十分重要。所谓“导”,就是结合官兵的客观实际状况,按照思维发展的一般规律,采取灵活的行之有效的方法,把官兵不正确的思想、行为引导到正确轨道上来,是“指”“教”的完善与巩固。“指”“教”与“导”可以说是经常性思想工作的一双翅膀,两者应有机地结合起来,不可或缺。     

“棉”大嫂“苗”大姐“菇”小妹

“棉”大嫂、“苗”大姐、“菇”小妹是农一师十二团的女能人,她们用勤劳和智慧描绘着五彩斑斓的丰收图,成为小康路上的领跑人。