基于Marcov模型的舰艇舱室火灾蔓延风险

假设舰艇舱室内火灾蔓延按照发生燃烧的物品引燃次序进行,将舰艇舱室内可燃物燃烧分成若干种不同的燃烧状态,采用时问连续状态离散的Marcov模型,先后计算舰艇舱室火灾蔓延的转移概率速率函数和转移概率函数,得到不同时间下各种燃烧状态的概率分布,从而得到舰艇舱室火灾最大风险来临时间.此半经验的理论模型,可以用于舰艇火灾风险预测.     

舰艇舱室火灾危险性的评估方法

根据火灾形成和蔓延的机制 ,分析了影响舰艇火灾的各种因素 ,并建立了舱室火灾危险性的评估模型 .然后应用该模型对某型舰餐厅的火灾危险性进行了评估 ,提出了有效降低舱室火灾危险性的建议     

基于场模拟的舰艇防火优化设计

从舰艇结构与人员防护的角度来探讨舰艇防火优化设计,提出了舰艇防火优化设计参数,并利用场模拟模型对着火舱室与火灾蔓延舱室进行定量的数值计算与分析,来确定不能满足舰艇防火优化设计参数的舱室;进而根据分析的结论对这类舱室采取主动或者被动的消防措施.通过这些优化措施使得优化后的舱室满足舰艇防火结构优化设计参数,最终达到舰艇防火的目的.     

舰艇舱室烟气蔓延数值模拟

假设舰艇单舱室内的烟气沉降符合双层区域模型,然后运用质量、能量守恒和气体状态方程建立舰艇内多舱室烟气蔓延模型.采用火灾发展模型对某舰艇多舱室的烟气蔓延进行数值模拟计算,得到舱室内烟气温度变化和沉降变化并与CFAST软件计算的结果进行了比较.数值计算结果与CFAST模拟计算结果的变化趋势完全一致,时间提前了约10%～15%.     

船舶封闭舱室池火灾温度分布特性

为了研究船舶封闭舱室池火灾温度分布特性,首先根据船舶舱室火灾不同于建筑空间火灾的特点建立了火灾实验系统;其次,进行了不同火源功率的火灾实验,对封闭舱室火灾温度场进行分析研究,利用实验数据样本建立回归方程,并应用数理统计方法对回归方程的拟合度进行验证,总结出舱室火灾温度在水平和垂直两个方向上的分布特性;最后,建立了熄火时刻温度分布及时间预测模型。经实验证明:该方法为船舶火灾封舱灭火后确认重新开舱时间提供了理论依据。     

潜艇封舱灭火安全性分析

采用火灾区域模拟的方法建立了潜艇舱室火灾发展模型,并运用Runge-Kutta法对潜艇舱室火灾进行了模拟计算,经分析得出潜艇舱室中的燃烧过程具有缺氧、高温、快速的特点,进而证明了封舱灭火是一项适合于扑灭潜艇火灾的有效措施;然后,从潜艇火灾燃烧极不充分的特点出发,对火灾缺氧过程中产生烟气的主要成分CO的体积百分比进行了简...     

海军装备声学振动检测中心二分部正式成立

经海军装技部批准,海军装备声学振动检测中心二分部于1993年1月13日正式成立。该分部设在海军工程学院,下设办公室和舰船结构振动噪声检测室、舰船动力装置振动噪声检测室、舰船武备振动噪声检测室。其主要任务:以承接军内委托的任务为主,同时也承接军外单位委托的舰船的结构、机电、武备等噪声/振动的测量分析;新造舰船舱室空气噪声、平台噪声、结构振动和总体辐射噪声的测量分析;噪声/振动控制方案论证、降噪抑振试验研究;机电设备噪     

舰船空调系统改进性方案设计

本文针对航行在热带海区的某型舰船用空调系统存在的降温效果差、舱室风机盘管噪音大、操作管理不便等问题进行了研究,并提出了改进设计方案;经实船安装和调试,明显改善了空调舱室的舒适性,提高了设备工作的可靠性和自动化管理程度,收到了良好的效果。     

自然补风对舰船单开口舱室排烟的影响

为研究自然补风的补风口面积对舰船单开口舱室排烟效果的影响,在一个全尺寸的舰船单开口模拟舱室内,通过改变补风口上沿高度从而改变补风口面积,分别以舱室人眼高度处温度、烟气层高度、能见度及燃烧时间作为衡量排烟效果的标准进行了实验。实验结果表明:排烟能够显著降低舱室温度、提高舱室烟气层高度与恢复舱室能见度。当补风口面积较小时,补风速度较大,舱内烟气与新鲜空气掺混剧烈,油池燃烧速率增加,此时舱室降温效果更为明显,而烟气层稳定高度较低,能见度恢复较慢。     

潜艇舱室封闭条件下火灾烟流特性瞬态分析

将场模拟计算模型引入到潜艇非规则舱室火灾的仿真计算研究中,并在分析潜艇非规则结构舱室几何特性对烟气运动影响的基础上,对不同火源功率条件下、火源处于封闭舱室横向中心位置时的烟流瞬态特性进行了三维分析,得到了轴对称火烟流的体积分数、温度分布和烟气层厚度等特性.最后,与相同条件下的近壁面火烟流特性进行对比,发现舱室横向中心位...     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Panjwai: a tale of two COINs in Afghanistan

The US Army has two approaches to counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. One is hard, or combat-focused, and the other is soft, or development-focused. This study examines two US Army task forces deployed to Panjwai District, Afghanistan from 2012 to 2013. CTF 4-9 and 1-38 offer a meaningful comparison because they pursued these contrasting approaches among the same population and against the same enemy at the same time and place. The study compares each unit’s approach and finds that neither approach was successful absent the other. The article concludes by recommending further research into combining the approaches at the operational level.     

线性核时频信号表示及其仿真

根据ｃｈｉｒｐ信号在模糊域的特点,本文提出了线性核时频表示方法。这种方法在提高分辨率、消除交叉项以及抑制噪声等方面都具有较高的性能。理论分析和实验结果都证实了这种方法的有效性     

Forecasting a Hurricane: Israeli and American Estimations of the Khomeini Revolution

The surprising ‘Arab Spring’ raises the question as to what would enable national intelligence to provide high quality warnings prior to the eruption of popular revolutions. This article uses new sources of evidence to trace and explain Israel's success in comparison to US failure at correctly estimating the course of the Iranian Revolution in 1977–79. In explaining this variance, the article shows that it was mainly the result of the intimate acquaintance of Israel's representatives in Iran with the local language, history and culture, as well as the ability to communicate with locals – tools which the Americans completely lacked.     

关于教师继续教育培训模式的思考

继续教育作为终身教育的重要组成部分和基本形式,对教师的发展成长意义重大。继续教育工作开展十多年来,取得了一定的成绩,但还存在不少问题,如学习动机较为被动,管理认识不到位,教学内容陈旧空泛,教学方法呆板机械等。随着课程改革的不断深入,继续教育必须采取相应的改进措施,树立以人为本,服务至上的观点,教学内容的前瞻性与实用性并重,教学人员进行整合,教学方法灵活多样,评价考核规范科学等,以此激活受训教师内在的学习动机,更大程度地提高继续教育培训的实际效果。     

用DirectShow实现网络视频

目前市场上的网络监控技术一般用昂贵的硬件设备来支撑,投资较大。在深入研究微软的DirectX9.0的基础上,提出如何用DirectShow软件技术和普通的数字摄像头来实现网络视频的监控和实现技术,内容涉及通信协议、视频的编码与解码技术、视频的编码格式和COM组件编程技术等,最终的实验结果令人满意,且费用低廉,技术可靠,为在高速局域网内构建视频监控系统提供有效的技术支持。     

Interpreting the Ribchester Helmet

In 1796 a 13-year-old boy playing on wasteland behind his father’s house in Ribchester, Lancashire discovered an assemblage of over 30 Roman artefacts, including a decorated brass helmet. Although partially corroded the Ribchester helmet is a fine example of a first-century AD cavalry sports helmet. This article considers how the interpretation of the helmet has evolved since its discovery. The multi-faceted iconography of the helmet with its mural crown diadem is that of an elite soldier and is paralleled in other examples of cavalry sports helmets of the Ribchester type. The long-neglected imagery on the helmet bowl is reinterpreted and seen not as a haphazard collection of randomly placed combatants but as a highly structured, symmetrical composition specifically designed to be viewed from different directions.     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

Desert insurgency: lessons from the third Tuareg rebellion

This article provides an in-depth examination and analysis of the 2006–2009 Tuareg rebellion in Mali and Niger. It identifies the underlying reasons behind the rebellion, explores contrasting counter-insurgency (COIN) strategies employed by the two governments, and presents some lessons learned. While both COIN approaches ultimately produced similar peace settlements, the article argues that the Malian strategy of reconciliation combined with the selective use of force was far more effective than the Nigerien iron fist approach at limiting the size and scope of the insurgency and producing a more sustainable peace. It concludes by looking at the role of external actors, particularly the United States, and how the failure to internationalize the conflict was actually more beneficial to the local COIN effort, as well as to the longer strategic interests of the United States in the region.