An integrated electric power supply chain and fuel market network framework: Theoretical modeling with empirical analysis for New England

In this article, we develop a novel electric power supply chain network model with fuel supply markets that captures both the economic network transactions in energy supply markets and the physical network transmission constraints in the electric power network. The theoretical derivation and analysis are done using the theory of variational inequalities. We then apply the model to a specific case, the New England electric power supply chain, consisting of six states, five fuel types, 82 power generators, with a total of 573 generating units, and 10 demand market regions. The empirical case study demonstrates that the regional electric power prices simulated by our model match the actual electricity prices in New England very well. We also compute the electric power prices and the spark spread, an important measure of the power plant profitability, under natural gas and oil price variations. The empirical examples illustrate that in New England, the market/grid‐level fuel competition has become the major factor that affects the influence of the oil price on the natural gas price. Finally, we utilize the model to quantitatively investigate how changes in the demand for electricity influence the electric power and the fuel markets from a regional perspective. The theoretical model can be applied to other regions and multiple electricity markets under deregulation to quantify the interactions in electric power/energy supply chains and their effects on flows and prices. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

灰色神经网络的鱼雷经济寿命预测

为减少军费开支、降低鱼雷全寿命费用,从经济性角度提出了鱼雷最佳服役年限模型。利用灰色等维新息GM(1,1)模型对鱼雷年度使用维修费用进行预测;采用分组的思想将原始数据分为多组,采用神经网络对灰色模型的预测残差进行修正,以提高预测精度。通过实际算例预测了鱼雷经济寿命,从而证明了模型的实际应用价值。     

Structural properties of network revenue management models: An economic perspective

Many revenue management problems have a network aspect. In this paper, we argue that a network can be thought of as a system of substitutable and complementary products, and the value of a revenue management model should be supermodular or submodular in the availability of two resources as the resources are economic substitutes or complements. We demonstrate that this is true in the case of a two‐resource dynamic stochastic revenue management model and show how this applies for multi‐resource deterministic static revenue management models. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

基于信息论的信息共享质量评估研究

如何度量编队作战中信息共享的质量,是一个值得研究的新课题。根据信息论的知识,从信息的产生概率和不确定性方面出发,建立了仅与节点的状态概率有关的双节点和网络信息共享的质量评估模型,并通过仿真得出了结果。     

A multi‐objective model for bank ATM networks

In this paper we present an application of the core solution concepts for multi‐objective games to a bank ATM network model. In these games, the worth of a coalition is given by a subset of vectors of the k‐dimensional space rather than by a scalar. The paper investigates how an ATM network model based on multi‐objective cooperative game theory could be used as an alternative way of setting interchange fees paid by the customer's bank to the one that owns the ATM. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

A generalized recursive algorithm for a class of non-stationary regeneration (scheduling) problems

Recent efforts in the field of dynamic programming have explored the feasibility of solving certain classes of integer programming problems by recursive algorithms. Special recursive algorithms have been shown to be particularly effective for problems possessing a 0–1 attribute matrix displaying the “nesting property” studied by, Ignall and Veinott in inventory theory and by Glover in network flows. This paper extends the class of problem structures that has been shown amenable to recursive exploitation by providing an efficient dynamic programming approach for a general transportation scheduling problem. In particular, we provide alternative formulations lor the scheduling problem and show how the most general of these formulations can be readily solved vis a vis recursive techniques.     

“复杂网络建模与优化学术研讨会”报告摘要

2014年1月20—21日,由国家自然科学基金资助、后勤工程学院基础部组织的"复杂网络建模与优化学术研讨会"在后勤工程学院召开。复杂网络科学是最近10年来新兴的交叉科学,它主要研究复杂物理、生物、社会系统等的网络表示和分析,理解网络结构如何影响系统的功能和行为。近年来,复杂网络研究在生物医学、电子商务、舆论传播、交通优化、恐怖活动预测等方面均有成功应用。在本次学术研讨会上作报告的专家均为国内外复杂网络研究领域的知名专家和优秀青年学者。主要有复杂网络领域国际知名专家、韩国成均馆大学Petter Holme教授,中国科学技术大学汪秉宏教授,电子科技大学周涛教授、荣智海教授,兰州大学吴枝喜教授,杭州师范大学张子柯教授,国防科学技术大学吕欣讲师和后勤工程学院赵静教授。经主办方和报告人同意,本刊汇集了以上专家在此次研讨会上的报告摘要,按时间顺序进行报道。     

基于模糊-组合神经网络的信息系统安全风险评估

针对信息系统的安全风险评估问题,提出了一种将模糊理论与神经网络进行"浅层次"结合的评估方法。通过对信息系统所涉及的风险因素分别从资产影响、威胁频度、脆弱性严重程度三方面进行分析,建立了信息系统的安全风险层次化结构,并构造了各因素所对应评判集的隶属度矩阵;综合运用模糊推理算法与神经网络仿真技术,对信息系统的安全风险进行评估,进而判定信息系统安全风险等级。最后,通过实例分析说明了算法的应用,并借助误差分析检测了模型的有效性。     

Interchange fees for bank ATM networks

Banks have found it advantageous to connect their Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) in networks so that customers of one bank may use the ATMs of any bank in the network. When this occurs, an interchange fee is paid by the customer's bank to the one that owns the ATM. These have been set by historic interbank negotiation. The paper investigates how a model based on n-player game theory concepts of Shapley value and nucleolus could be used as an alternative way of setting such fees. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 407–417, 1998     

CHOOSING GENOCIDE: ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES ON THE DISTURBING RATIONALITY OF RACE MURDER

An economic theory of genocide is presented with application to Rwanda‐1994. The theory considers ‘macro’ conditions under which an authority group chooses genocide and ‘micro’ conditions that facilitate the spread of genocide. From the macro perspective, a bargaining model highlights four rational explanations for an authority’s choice of genocide: prevention of loss of power, indivisibility, elimination of a persistent rival, and political bias. From the micro perspective, an evolutionary game model shows how supporters of genocide gain the upper hand in group dynamics over resisters and bystanders. The theory and application suggest that the conditions for genocide are not exceptional.     

刚体定点转动欧拉运动学方程的群表示法

目前研究刚体定点转动欧拉运动学方程大多用矢量的方法,过程繁琐.本文拟用群理论理解刚体的定点转动.利用SO_(3)群的左不变形式,作用于左不变向量场d/dt得到欧拉运动学方程,并且给出计算李代数的左不变形式A(?)dA的一个简化方法.     

科学发展观与马克思学派社会经济分析大思路——社会经济科学分析模型的建立与中国适用

社会经济发展理论源于斯密和李嘉图为代表的古典经济学派,是二战后在发达国家广泛流行的理论,其理论及模型的建立强调科学技术进步、人力资本积累、劳动分工以及制度变迁的作用。但发达国家理论家自身存在的认识论缺陷使其不可能科学完整地建立社会经济发展理论及分析模型。因此必须遵循马克思的方法论从理论为实际的反映人手,建立科学的社会经济发展理论,并以此指导和服务于社会经济发展的实践。     

无标度网络理论在网络中心战中的应用

根据无标度网络理论对军事信息网络进行分析,认为军事信息网的逻辑层应为符合幂指数分布的无标度网络,传统的以泊松分布为理论基础的随机网络分析方法已不再适用,并通过构建随机网络和无标度网络的实例进行了对比分析,进一步论证了这个结论.根据无标度网络理论,对军事信息网的抗毁性特点进行了分析,得出了"对随机攻击鲁棒性强,对智能攻击脆弱性高"的结论,并提出了以网络连通性为标准,判定节点重要性的一般方法.参照国外的先进网络应用经验,针对军事信息网节点间非常不均衡的无标度特性,给出了"关键节点热备份"和"物理节点分散配置"的抗毁策略.     

物元贝叶斯网络模型研究

分析了贝叶斯网络建模过程中的缺陷,结合物元理论,提出了物元贝叶斯网络理论.该理论能够融合二者的优点,既可处理复杂系统中的不确定性,又能充分利用系统中的所有信息,因此能够更好地进行复杂系统评价.     

Urban gangs evolving as criminal Netwar actors

The nature of conflict and crime is changing. Technology allows groups to spread their influence without regard to geographic limitations. A shift from hierarchies to network organizational forms is also occurring. As a consequence non‐state actors can extend their influence to gain social, political or economic power and challenge state institutions. This article examines the potential for gangs, transnational criminals and terrorists to embrace network forms and utilize technology to wage netwar. Factors which influence ‘third generation’ gang organization (politicization, internationalization and sophistication) are described to illustrate how a net‐based threat can mature. A move toward network organization within transnational criminal organizations and terrorist groups demonstrating the potential for these classic criminal entities to emerge as netwar actors is also reviewed. Finally, the need for state institutions such as the police and military to develop networked responses to combat networked threats is stated.     

Ethnicity,class, and civil war: the role of hierarchy,segmentation, and cross-cutting cleavages

Why are some countries prone to ethno-nationalist conflict, whereas others are plagued by class conflict? This is a question that has seldom been raised and rarely been examined empirically. This paper presents a social-structural theory to account for the variable incidence of these two forms of political instability. These two types of conflict result from distinct principles of group solidarity – ethnicity and class – and since each individual is simultaneously a member of an ethnic group (or many such groups) and a particular class, these two principles vary in the degree to which they are mutually exclusive or cross-cutting. The degree of economic stratification between groups and economic segmentation within them shapes the relative salience of each principle of group solidarity in any society and is associated with a characteristic form of political mobilization. In places where between-group inequalities are high, and within-group inequalities low, ethnicity should be the dominant principle of group solidarity and serve as the primary basis of group conflict. By contrast, in countries where between-group inequalities are low, and within-group inequalities high, class is more likely to serve as the dominant principle of group solidarity, and conflicts along class lines are more likely. We test these conjectures with data in over 100 countries on cross-cutting cleavages, ethnic war, and class conflict. The results are supportive of the theory, and provide evidence that how groups are stratified and segmented in societies shapes the type of civil war.     

基于社会资本视角的“对口支援”西部高校理论解读

博特认为社会网络是一种社会资本,如果一个人能够成功运用网络的话。他的生活就能大大改善。所谓结构洞就是没有重复的信息源,而且是最为有效率的网络结构本文采用博特“结构洞理论”对“对口支援”西部地区高等学校政策解读,试图围绕博特“结构洞理论”主要思想展开讨论,“对口支援”是以政府的政治导向为主的援助政策,通过“对口支援”使受援学校获得了快速发展,其主要原因之一就是支援学校为受援学校拓展了社会网络,受援学校通过支援学校结构洞的信息桥梁优势,整合社会网络结构的信息资源、机会资源和社会资源,从而获得学校生存和发展之本。     

A generalized model for estimation of aerodynamic forces and moments for irregularly shaped bodies

A novel method for estimation of an aerodynamic force and moment acting on an irregularly shaped body (such as HE projectile fragments) during its flight through the atmosphere is presented. The model assumes that fragments can be approximated with a tri-axial ellipsoid that has continuous surface given as a mathematical function. The model was validated with CFD data for a tri-axial ellipsoid and verified using CFD data on aerodynamic forces and moments acting on an irregularly shaped fragment.The contribution of this method is that it represents a significant step toward a modeling that does not require a cumbersome CFD simulation results for estimation of fragment dynamic and kinematic parameters. Due to this advantage, the model can predict the fragment motion consuming a negligible time when compared to the corresponding time consumed by CFD simulations. Parametric representation (generalization) of the fragment geometrical data and the conditions provides the way to analyze various correlations and how parameters influence the dynamics of the fragment flight.     

Choosing the Right Sidekick: Economic Complements to US Military Grand Strategies

ABSTRACT

Scholars and practitioners of grand strategy agree that the use of military force should be supplemented by appropriate economic policies. However, strangely few accounts of economic complements to military grand strategies have been presented in recent discourse on US grand strategy. This paper takes a first step to fill this information gap. I first assess the role that could be played by economic measures under two types of grand strategies – one focusing on the balance of power and the other emphasising influence and order. Second, I introduce what I call ‘the influence-capability dilemma’ and discuss tradeoffs in adopting certain economic policies in order to help the US sustain pre-eminence in the international system. Third, I discuss how the US should address this dilemma of economic means in dealing with the rising China.     

论网络化时代高校心理健康教育体系建设

网络是把双刃剑。一方面,由于网络形成的网络心理障碍、网络成瘾综合症等突出心理健康问题给高校心理健康教育带来严峻的挑战;另一方面,网络也给高校心理健康教育带来了难得的机遇。本文就如何构建网络化时代高校心理健康教育体系提出了建议。