基于证据理论与多模型结合的模拟电路故障诊断

针对模拟电路故障诊断中单一诊断模型诊断结果模糊性与不确定性较大的不足,基于信息融合原理,提出一种结合神经网络、支持向量机(SVM)与DS证据理论的综合诊断模型。在分析了传统BP神经网络与支持向量机的缺点后,分别用改进的免疫遗传算法和粒子群算法对其进行结构优化。利用两种模型的初步诊断结果进行DS证据理论的基本概率分配(BPA),得到证据理论的两个证据体。采用DS融合算法进行决策层融合诊断,定位故障元件。仿真验证表明,该方法可以有效提高故障诊断的准确率,避免了单一诊断模型的偶然性与不确定性。     

一种改进的保障信息融合模型

针对D-S证据理论难以处理高冲突证据信息,而DSmT理论融合效率不高的问题,在分析D-S证据理论和DSmT理论优缺点的基础上,提出将两种算法组合使用的思想,并据此设计了保障信息融合模型。模型以证据信息间的冲突程度为依据,实现了融合算法的自动选择。仿真验证表明,混合模型在有效实现高冲突证据融合的同时,兼顾了融合算法的效率,具有较好的工程应用前景。     

基于DS/AHP的贝叶斯网络条件概率值确定方法

针对多状态复杂系统贝叶斯网络条件概率赋值难以确定的问题,提出了一种基于DS证据理论/层次分析法(DS evidence theory/analytic hierarchy process,DS/AHP)的算法对不确定性信息进行融合处理。在对问题进行充分分析的基础上,提出了用于专家决策的判断标准,构建了融合多位专家经验信息的知识矩阵。以3节点贝叶斯网络模型为例,参照决策判断标准,依据域内专家经验知识构建知识矩阵,通过求解特征值、特征向量,确定了隶属于各个状态的基本概率分配值,应用DS证据理论进行了融合处理。并对DS/AHP方法的最大不确定度、最小不确定度进行了定量分析,验证了该方法的准确性与合理性。     

基于AHP-PCR5的多传感器目标识别

目标识别系统中所获得的信息常常是高度冲突和不确定的。基于DSmT理论的多传感器目标识别,可以解决证据高度冲突情况下的信息融合问题。然而由于DSmT理论融合结果分类精细而不利于判决,需要将某些分类结果进行重新分配。层次分析法(AHP)包含不确定知识矩阵,生成基本信度分配函数。基于此提出AHP-PCR5方法进行证据高度冲突情况下多传感器综合目标识别,不仅提高识别精度,降低识别过程的不确定因素,同时引入折扣系数灵活处理识别过程中具有不同可信度的多传感器融合问题。     

一种新的基于DSmT的合成公式

DSmT是一种有用的不确定推理方法,能较好地解决强冲突情况下的信息融合问题.由于其在组合规则方面存在不足,影响了DSmT的应用.提出了一种新的合成方法,即在保留冲突焦元的基础上对支持证据冲突的概率进行重新分配.仿真分析表明,新的合成公式提高了目标识别的准确性,对于高度冲突的证据,也能够取得理想的合成结果.     

一种基于加权DSmT的序列图像目标识别方法

通过对自动目标识别系统研究与分析,将DSmT引入到飞机序列图像识别中,构建基本置信指派及分类规则,提出了一种基于加权DSmT的序列图像目标识别方法,在分析权值选择特点的基础上,根据特征信息的置信指派组合有效权值,并且给出了基于加权DSmT融合规则的序列图像目标识别的流程,仿真结果表明,该方法提高了序列图像目标识别的准确性.     

基于改进DS理论多周期数据融合的目标识别方法

为了应对复杂战场环境下信息不确定性及证据冲突造成目标识别困难的问题,解决配准关联错误及应答欺骗产生的误识别问题,减小融合算法对先验数据的依赖,提出了一种基于改进DS证据理论的多周期多传感器数据融合方法以实现高效的战场目标识别。方法采用4个层级,两个方面的多传感器数据融合结构,在改进DS证据理论处理性能的同时,充分利用多个周期识别结果的融合实现最终目标识别。仿真结果表明,该方法在提高目标识别准确性的同时,能够有效解决目标密集和应答欺骗造成的目标误识别问题。     

贝叶斯融合方法在武器小子样试验中的应用

在小子样武器试验中利用贝叶斯融合理论对其参数进行评估,分析了贝叶斯理论基础和应用条件。在此基础上,建立了融合算法模型,经过仿真验证,在小子样试验中,该方法是提高评估置信度和精度的一种有效途径。     

用于目标跟踪的分布式融合结构和算法

现代监视系统经常利用多物理分布的不同类型的传感器,提供对目标的辅助和重叠作用范围。为生成目标航迹和估计,传感器数据需要加以融合。虽然集中式处理方法在理论上是最佳的,但把融合操作分布到多个处理节点有很多优点。本文讨论了分布式融合结构,每个节点处理它自己的一组传感器数据并与其他节点进行通信以改进估计。引入信息图形作为模拟分布式融合系统的信息流和发展算法的一种方法。目标跟踪融合包含两种主要操作方式:估计和互连。基于信息图形的分布式估计算法用于任意融合结构并与线性和非线性分布估计结果有关。根据跟踪到跟踪互连似然估计,讨论了分布式数据互连问题。介绍了两种流行跟踪算法的分布式方式(联合概率数据互连和多假设跟踪)并给出应用实例。     

基于CZT算法的水声扩频多普勒匹配方法

阐述了基于DS/SS(直接序列扩频)的高分辨率扩频自导声纳系统的一种多普勒匹配方法。通过理论分析和仿真计算,证明基于CZT多普勒频偏匹配算法可以在极低信噪比条件下有效估计多普勒频偏和目标速度。     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Panjwai: a tale of two COINs in Afghanistan

The US Army has two approaches to counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. One is hard, or combat-focused, and the other is soft, or development-focused. This study examines two US Army task forces deployed to Panjwai District, Afghanistan from 2012 to 2013. CTF 4-9 and 1-38 offer a meaningful comparison because they pursued these contrasting approaches among the same population and against the same enemy at the same time and place. The study compares each unit’s approach and finds that neither approach was successful absent the other. The article concludes by recommending further research into combining the approaches at the operational level.     

线性核时频信号表示及其仿真

根据ｃｈｉｒｐ信号在模糊域的特点,本文提出了线性核时频表示方法。这种方法在提高分辨率、消除交叉项以及抑制噪声等方面都具有较高的性能。理论分析和实验结果都证实了这种方法的有效性     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

Forecasting a Hurricane: Israeli and American Estimations of the Khomeini Revolution

The surprising ‘Arab Spring’ raises the question as to what would enable national intelligence to provide high quality warnings prior to the eruption of popular revolutions. This article uses new sources of evidence to trace and explain Israel's success in comparison to US failure at correctly estimating the course of the Iranian Revolution in 1977–79. In explaining this variance, the article shows that it was mainly the result of the intimate acquaintance of Israel's representatives in Iran with the local language, history and culture, as well as the ability to communicate with locals – tools which the Americans completely lacked.     

关于教师继续教育培训模式的思考

继续教育作为终身教育的重要组成部分和基本形式,对教师的发展成长意义重大。继续教育工作开展十多年来,取得了一定的成绩,但还存在不少问题,如学习动机较为被动,管理认识不到位,教学内容陈旧空泛,教学方法呆板机械等。随着课程改革的不断深入,继续教育必须采取相应的改进措施,树立以人为本,服务至上的观点,教学内容的前瞻性与实用性并重,教学人员进行整合,教学方法灵活多样,评价考核规范科学等,以此激活受训教师内在的学习动机,更大程度地提高继续教育培训的实际效果。     

用DirectShow实现网络视频

目前市场上的网络监控技术一般用昂贵的硬件设备来支撑,投资较大。在深入研究微软的DirectX9.0的基础上,提出如何用DirectShow软件技术和普通的数字摄像头来实现网络视频的监控和实现技术,内容涉及通信协议、视频的编码与解码技术、视频的编码格式和COM组件编程技术等,最终的实验结果令人满意,且费用低廉,技术可靠,为在高速局域网内构建视频监控系统提供有效的技术支持。     

Interpreting the Ribchester Helmet

In 1796 a 13-year-old boy playing on wasteland behind his father’s house in Ribchester, Lancashire discovered an assemblage of over 30 Roman artefacts, including a decorated brass helmet. Although partially corroded the Ribchester helmet is a fine example of a first-century AD cavalry sports helmet. This article considers how the interpretation of the helmet has evolved since its discovery. The multi-faceted iconography of the helmet with its mural crown diadem is that of an elite soldier and is paralleled in other examples of cavalry sports helmets of the Ribchester type. The long-neglected imagery on the helmet bowl is reinterpreted and seen not as a haphazard collection of randomly placed combatants but as a highly structured, symmetrical composition specifically designed to be viewed from different directions.     

Desert insurgency: lessons from the third Tuareg rebellion

This article provides an in-depth examination and analysis of the 2006–2009 Tuareg rebellion in Mali and Niger. It identifies the underlying reasons behind the rebellion, explores contrasting counter-insurgency (COIN) strategies employed by the two governments, and presents some lessons learned. While both COIN approaches ultimately produced similar peace settlements, the article argues that the Malian strategy of reconciliation combined with the selective use of force was far more effective than the Nigerien iron fist approach at limiting the size and scope of the insurgency and producing a more sustainable peace. It concludes by looking at the role of external actors, particularly the United States, and how the failure to internationalize the conflict was actually more beneficial to the local COIN effort, as well as to the longer strategic interests of the United States in the region.