Military intelligence and the war in Dhofar: An appraisal

This article examines the role military intelligence played in the Dhofar campaign between 1970 and 1976. Drawing on an array of sources, it examines not only the crucial role played by military intelligence in prosecuting a successful operational campaign against a Marxist inspired insurgency, but equally, the importance that intelligence played in consolidating the Al Bu Said dynasty when across Oman and Dhofar itself, the material benefits to be had from the discovery and production of oil had yet to be realised.     

军校的改革在于开放

分析了我军院校发展中存在的问题,提出了培养合格军事人才军校必须采取的措施,阐明了军校教育必须从封闭走向开放,才能在世界军事斗争中处于不败之地。     

The reporting time problem: Integration of intelligence with verification

This article is a theoretic study of the following problem in verification: Mobile units under control of an agent, whom we call the HIDER, travel on a known transportation network and must at the conclusion of their itinerary report locations at fixed time intervals to a monitoring authority, whom we call the SEEKER. The purpose of this reporting requirement is to verify that illegal units do not infiltrate the network from sources under the control of the HIDER. We assume that the SEEKER has an independent intelligence-gathering capability which gives sightings of both legal and illegal units. The purpose of this article is to quantify the advantage of frequent over infrequent reporting. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

An Imperfect Jewel: Military Theory and the Military Profession

This article explores a perennial theme in the literature of strategic studies: the relationship between military theory and the military profession. It begins with a conceptual analysis of this relationship. It then investigates what military theorists themselves have had to say about the utility of their craft. It concludes by assessing the actual influence of military theory on selected individuals and institutions. The individuals are George S. Patton, Jr., and Ulysses S. Grant. The institutions are the United States Army and the United States Air Force in the late twentieth century. The fundamental finding is suggested in the title: military theory can indeed be quite useful in the maturation of military commanders and in the development of martial institutions, but it is not always necessary and by no means perfect. It should thus be studied assiduously but used with caution.     

Military spending and growth: a small open economy stochastic growth model

The paper analyzes the effects of military spending on economic growth in a small open stochastic endogenous growth model involving the supply-side and demand-side effects produced by military spending. We show that a rise in the military spending affects economic growth through four channels, including the crowding-out effect, the spin-off effect, the resource mobilization effect, and the portfolio effect. The net effect which depends on these four channels is ambiguous. Hence, we demonstrate that there exists an optimal defense burden that maximizes the economic growth rate.     

苏联在苏德战争初期失利的军事原因探析

在第二次世界大战中,苏联军民遏制了德国法西斯称霸世界的野心,担负起世界反法西斯战争的重任,并为夺取胜利作出了伟大贡献.但也应当看到,苏联军民是在汲取战争初期经验教训的基础上,由战略反攻被迫转入战略防御,通过消耗敌人力量改变敌我双方力量对比,转入战略相持与转折阶段,并最终赢得辉煌胜利的.     

Budget allocation,national security,military intelligence,and human capital: a dynamic model

This study develops a dynamic model that integrates military intelligence into the defense capability of the country and the optimal allocation of its government budget. We assert that the effectiveness of the country’s military intelligence is contingent on the quality of its human capital, which, in turn, implies a long-term positive relationship between the government’s various civilian expenditures and its capacity to achieve a cost-effective intelligence and, hence, military capability. This relationship is developed within a multiple-period arms race model between two rivals. Using this model and stylized data for the Israeli–Syrian arms race, we show that an appropriate budget shift from defense to civilian expenditures during the initial periods of the planning horizon will gradually (over a decade, say) increase the quality of human capital in the country and, thus, the effectiveness of its intelligence, which, in turn, will increase the country’s future security and welfare.     

防空群掩护固定目标兵力区分模型构建

兵力区分是防空兵战斗部署的重要环节。传统的区分方法过于笼统,同时针对性不强。对防空群掩护固定目标时兵力区分的原则、方法和程序进行了探讨,并按照目标重要程度排序空袭兵力需求分析防空兵力需求分析兵力分配的思路建立了防空群兵力区分的数理模型。     

Military Maladaptation: Counterinsurgency and the Politics of Failure

Tactical learning is critical to battlefield success, especially in a counterinsurgency. This article tests the existing model of military adaption against a ‘most-likely’ case: the British Army’s counterinsurgency in the Southern Cameroons (1960–61). Despite meeting all preconditions thought to enable adaptation – decentralization, leadership turnover, supportive leadership, poor organizational memory, feedback loops, and a clear threat – the British still failed to adapt. Archival evidence suggests politicians subverted bottom-up adaptation, because winning came at too high a price in terms of Britain’s broader strategic imperatives. Our finding identifies an important gap in the extant adaptation literature: it ignores politics.     

新军事变革与军事历史学科体系的创新

目前正在发展的世界新军事变革,是有史以来影响最深刻、最广泛的一次军事变革。它将引起世界军事领域产生新的质变,引发一场波及全球、涉及所有军事领域的军事革命。在这种形势下,军事历史研究面临着重大的挑战和机遇,亟待进行学科体系的开拓和创新,以推动中国特色的军事变革,为未来反侵略斗争服务。一、军事历史学科体系进行新开拓的重要性和紧迫性经过学术界的长期努力,军事历史研究已经形成了较为完备的体系,取得了一批重要的研究成果,为国防和军队建设作出了重要贡献。但也应看到,对于近期的历史,特别是世界新军事变革发生以来的战争和…     

新军事革命与军校教学改革

当代的战争转型使军事斗争呈现出新矛盾、新特点 ,适应新军事革命要求 ,军校教学改革必须解决自身定位、军事理论和军事哲学发展的新课题 ,必须在教学内容、教员队伍建设、教育观念上进行相应的改革     

An integer programming model for the weekly tour scheduling problem

We study a workforce planning and scheduling problem in which weekly tours of agents must be designed. Our motivation for this study comes from a call center application where agents serve customers in response to incoming phone calls. Similar to many other applications in the services industry, the demand for service in call centers varies significantly within a day and among days of the week. In our model, a weekly tour of an agent consists of five daily shifts and two days off, where daily shifts within a tour may be different from each other. The starting times of any two consecutive shifts, however, may not differ by more than a specified bound. Furthermore, a tour must also satisfy constraints regarding the days off, for example, it may be required that one of the days off is on a weekend day. The objective is to determine a collection of weekly tours that satisfy the demand for agents' services, while minimizing the total labor cost of the workforce. We describe an integer programming model where a weekly tour is obtained by combining seven daily shift scheduling models and days‐off constraints in a network flow framework. The model is flexible and can accommodate different daily models with varying levels of detail. It readily handles different days‐off rules and constraints regarding start time differentials in consecutive days. Computational results are also presented. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 607–624, 2001.     

Sweden and the dilemmas of neutral intelligence liaison

Throughout the Cold War Sweden pursued a declared policy of non-alignment. Sweden nevertheless established security links with a number of Western powers, first of all Britain and the US. The most extensive links were developed in two areas – military technology and intelligence. Intelligence liaison was of crucial importance for the security of non-aligned Sweden, but also significant for the major Western powers in filling gaps in intelligence collection. But intelligence liaison also served as an instrument in a closed policy arena where Sweden could receive or pay back favours, according to a pattern established already during World War II. However, intelligence liaison contained policy dilemmas, some of a more general nature, some specific for a country with an overt policy of non-alignment.     

军事指挥类期刊对军事学术研究的透视

军事指挥类期刊主要依靠各级军事指挥员,服务于部队全面建设。在军事学术研究队伍不断发展壮大的今天,军事指挥类期刊为部队“能打仗、打胜仗”军事理论研究服务,但军事学术研究存在着研究群体优势和合成作战理论优势发挥不够的问题。因而,要高度重视军事学术研究人才培养,加大经费投入,强化军兵种之间合成作战理论研究的力度。     

A chessboard model of the U‐boat war in the Atlantic with applications to signals intelligence

This paper uses a simple Monte Carlo model to analyze the influence of signals intelligence on the Second World War's Battle of the Atlantic. The principle measure of effectiveness is the number of U‐boat days of attack to which convoys were subjected. A secondary measure is the number of convoyed ships sunk. The model is validated against historical data and then used to explore the effectiveness of the two sides' signals intelligence. Allied use of signals intelligence is shown to have been capable of completely offsetting German use of signals intelligence, and then some. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

军事变革与军事战略思维演进的历史轨迹

恩格斯指出:"历史从哪里开始,思想进程也应当从哪里开始,而思想进程的进一步发展不过是历史进程在抽象的、理论上前后一贯的形式上的反映."(<马克思恩格斯选集>第2卷,122页,北京,人民出版社,1972)从历史的起点开始军事战略思维的研究,描绘军事战略思维变化的历史轨迹,探求其发展趋势和演进规律,对于对军事战略思维的全面理解和把握,无疑是十分必要和有意义的.     

平行军事体系:发轫与嬗变

平行军事体系的演变经历了四个阶段,这就是冷兵器时代的肢体平行军事体系,热兵器时代的体能平行军事体系,机械化时代的技能平行军事体系和信息化时代的智能平行军事体系.它们的有机叠加,即构成我们今天所面对的平行军事体系.这一体系将武器装备的打击力、防护力、机动力、信息力集于一体,从实现人的功能延伸,乃至替代,最后必然走向无人作战.     

深入研究毛泽东军事思想不断创新中国特色军事理论

本文是军事科学院院长郑申侠在“全军纪念毛泽东诞辰110周年军事思想学术研讨会”上致的开幕词,标题为本刊编者所加,发表时略有删节。     

陆军分队城市作战行动的概念建模

以陆军分队城市作战为例,论述动作和行动概念模型的特点、分类和方法,提出一些新的问题和理念思考.