What explains the failure of U.S. army reconstruction in Afghanistan?

ABSTRACT

This author wrote his doctorate thesis on post-conflict army reconstruction, submitting it in 2011. Continued research on the subject in the intervening seven years indicates that his theoretical propositions can be refined and improved. This article examines refinements to the model, and then applies those refinements in detail to the Afghan case. In so doing, it shifts the focus from potentially altruistic state-building to a case that was driven by pure national-strategic interests. Issues surrounding the liberal peace ideology dominate recent army reconstruction in conflict-affected states. The liberal peace underpinning is of supreme importance, so much so that in many discussions, it is internalised and accepted virtually without thought. This paper will advance the body of knowledge by establishing, for the first time, a theoretical basis for the widespread failure of army reconstruction in Afghanistan. The empirical basis builds on extensive previous research by other scholars. The resulting model can also be applied to better explain outcomes in other similar cases.     

The Two Techniques of O. Henry＇s

O. Henry is the founder of American modern short story. What makes his sto-ries enjoy mostt popularity is his own styles ---- (1) Reasonable artistic exaggeration. (2)Unexpected ending. In this article I emphatically comment its value in the two stories : TheRomance of a Busy Broker and The Last Leaf. Up to now there is still much in Henry‘s method that we can make use of beneficially.     

What-If at Waterloo. Carl von Clausewitz’s use of historical counterfactuals in his history of the Campaign of 1815

In this article, I analyze the use of historical counterfactuals in the Campaign of 1815 by Carl von Clausewitz (1780–1831). Such is the importance of counterfactuals in this work that its gist can be given in a series of 25 counterfactuals. I claim that a central role is played by evaluative counterfactuals. This specific form of counterfactuals is part of a didactic method that allows Clausewitz to teach young officers a critical method that prepares them for the challenge of decision-making in real warfare. I conclude with the enduring relevance of Clausewitz’s use of evaluative counterfactuals for contemporary military historiography.     

效益.法规.规律

近年来,我军的生产经营得到了较快的发展,在一定程度上弥补了军费不足,加强了部队建设。但实际也向我们提出:要使军队的生产经营取得更大的经济效益,必须尽快地建立和完善军事经济法规,进一步提高按客观规律办事的自觉性。一最佳的经济效益,只能来自先进的经营方式和管理体制。1988年伊始,从北大荒     

From small wars to counterinsurgency: C.W. Gwynn, ‘Imperial Policing’ and transformation of doctrine

ABSTRACT

The complicated problematic of Imperial Policing in many respects still comes down to the principle of minimum force, and much of what we consider an integral part of the modern doctrine of counterinsurgency, is perceived as by-product of post-1945 colonial experience. Charles Gwynn wrote about it in his still underestimated text-book on internal security, ‘Imperial Policing’. As a result, there is a lack of clear understanding how colonial (based on local experience) knowledge was transformed into the expert (universal, transferable) knowledge in confronting rebellions at the doctrinal level. This article examines the work of Gwynn as part of a transitional stage from the age of global empires to the age of nuclear superpowers within the context of internal security doctrine. Adaptation to the new realities during the interwar period and after the World War II – reconfiguration of the British army epistemological system in confronting insurgencies – was a hard process. In this sense, the question about transformation of colonial knowledge into expert knowledge onto the field of internal security is a part of a more general and sensitive question about transition from colonialism to the post-colonial age.     

Allocating the U.S. Department of Defense Budget: Revisiting the ‘Incremental/Fair Share Model’

Abstract

This article examines the ‘incremental/fair share model’ that was proposed by Alex Mintz in 1988 concerning the budget allocation of the U.S. Department of Defense. Although Mintz was unable to confirm the correctness of his model, this study demonstrated it to be statistically significant. In the statistical analyses, I used the two-stage least squares method and Durbin’s h-test to better scrutinize the model’s adequacy. Few previous studies have addressed the allocation of the U.S. defence budget; consequently, the incremental/fair-share model should constitute a starting point for further research on the U.S. defence budget allocation.     

R.M.S系列丛书

为推动我国装备研制中可靠性、维修性和保障性(R.M.S)工作的开展,国防科工委军用标准化中心近几年组织翻译、编写了一系列很有参考价值的图书.这些图书包括;《R.M.S译文选》十二册,《R.M.S标准宣贯教材》九册,《R.M.S译丛》七册.另外还有一些与R.M.S有关的参考书,共有三十余册.是参与装备论证、设计、生产、监造、使用和维修工作的广大科技工作者开展可靠性、维修性、保障性等工作必备的参考资料,是工程技术院校的大中专学生和研究生的参考书与教材,是装备研制单位、科研单位的资料室和工程技术院校的图书馆必藏的图书.装甲兵工程学院参与了部分图书的翻译、编写、出版工作.     

A Quarter Century of ‘Transitory Power-Sharing’. Lebanon’s Unfulfilled Ta’if Agreement of 1989 Revisited

Most countries of the Arab Mashrek are multi-ethnic and multi-sectarian. In recent years, most of them have experienced violent clashes between groups that frame their conflicts along ethnic-sectarian lines. This article investigates the Lebanese Ta’if Agreement of 1989 as a crucial case study of how to manage such conflicts through a transitory power-sharing arrangement. It presents several provisions of this agreement that adhere to three different approaches of how to deal with such conflicts: the consociational and the centripetal models of power-sharing as well as the integrationist paradigm. It thereby seeks to develop a theoretical argument about chances and risks of transitory power-sharing in deeply divided societies and derives some general lessons for managing conflicts in the Middle East.     

N.W.命题与考试法

本文为克服现行考试出现的弊端,运用数学方法,给出关于命题的“复度”、“时度”、“难度”、“联度”的定义,建立评定成绩的“基础分数法”,研制了相应的算法和软件。通过高等数学课程的命题与试考说明该法对于正确反映教学水平,鉴别学生水平差异,对于克服高分低能,防止分数贬值、评分过严等考试弊端均有重要作用。     

Tripwires and free-riders: Do forward-deployed U.S. troops reduce the willingness of host-country citizens to fight for their country?

This article investigates the relationship between U.S. overseas troops and the willingness of the citizens of host states to fight for their country. The study joins the long-running debate about burden-sharing and free-riding among U.S. allies. Unlike most previous empirical studies, we focus on non-material or intangible measures of the underlying concepts. Our dependent variable estimates the proportion of citizens expressing a willingness to fight for their country. Scores at the aggregate-national as well as the individual level are shaped by the presence of U.S. military forces, which act as a “tripwire” signaling credible security commitments. This increases opportunities of (non-material) free-riding. We present both bivariate and multivariate analyses covering the period 1981–2014 to test this supposition. Findings indicate that once U.S. troop levels reach a certain threshold (between 100 and 500 troops), citizens’ willingness to fight drops significantly. This likely reflects non-material free-riding.     

身忙.眼盲.心茫

“当官不轻松,轻松不当官”。当官应铭记权为民所用,情为民所系,利为民所谋。然而当前,少数领导干部却遗忘了当官之本、淡忘了当官之责、健忘了当官之要,热衷于“身忙”,必导致“眼盲”,乃“病”起“心茫”。“身忙”之象。大部分人对“忙”的认识都是积极正面的,它说明一个人正在创造价值,代表这个人的重要性。为了工作“白加黑”、“5＋2”,“忙并快乐着”。但还有少数人忙于奔场应酬、忙于吃请请吃、忙于觥筹交错,一天到晚一个场接一个场地赶,一顿饭接一顿饭地吃,一杯酒接一杯酒地喝;忙于享乐享福、忙于笙歌艳舞、忙于按摩打牌,荒诞奢侈、玩之成瘾、夜不归家,“忙并肤浅着”。同样都是“忙”,一方把时间和精力“忙”在工作上,感受着快乐,另一方“忙”在追求享乐主义和奢靡之风上,必将被世人唾之骂之。     

America’s Prescient Dissenters: Senator J. William Fulbright and Dr. Andrew J. Bacevich’s Principled Dissent of US Policy in Vietnam and Iraq and their Enduring Perspectives

During the Cold War, the spread and fear of communism furnished the overarching ideological rationale for American foreign policy and for the deployment of United States military forces and resources. Subscribing to the domino theory and its potential impact on Southeast Asia, the Johnson Administration committed the United States to the Vietnam War. Following the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, and the commencement of the Global War on Terrorism, Washington once again set a national agenda rooted in a simplistic analysis reminiscent of Vietnam and the domino theory. Ignorant of Iraq’s mammoth sectarian, historical, ethnic, and global strategic complexities, the Bush Administration launched Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). The absence of critical analysis, contrarian viewpoints, and sound judgment characterized the US policy and strategy for both the Vietnam War and OIF, exhibiting the lack of moral courage that the national security enterprise seeks, but seldom attains. Faced with this challenge, this article draws attention to the ethical lessons we can learn from the dissent of William Fulbright and Andrew Bacevich.     

From show of force to naval presence,and back again: the U.S. Navy in the Baltic, 1982–2017

This article discusses roles and missions of the United States Navy with a particular focus on the Baltic Sea. That particular sea has gained renewed political and military attention following Russia's resurgent and increasingly hybrid-offensive foreign policy. Baltic nations, uncertain of what the future holds, ought to look at sea power and maritime missions in the Baltic, as well as US naval presence in Europe, to draw lessons for future posture.     

www.capumit.org.cn欢迎登陆中国和平利用军工技术协会网站

经过精心筹划和认真准备,中国和平利用军工技术协会网站于2004年2月20日正式开通。 根据协会的宗旨和工作特点,协会网站建设确立了“面向企业,服务会员,把网站办成为企业服务的平台”和“创新、求实、提高”的指导原则,网站建成后将致力于贯彻中央的“军民结合、寓军于民”方针,宣传党和政府相关政策,促进军转民、和平利用军工技术事业的发展,推动军用技术与民用技术的相互交流、融合与转换,帮助军工企业加强国内     

百步穿杨的秘密——图解5.11H.R.T.弹道计算手表

在一些影视剧中,大家经常看到这样的镜头,一个步枪瞄准镜的特写,然后镜头拉近,瞄准镜的十字对准一个悍匪的脑袋,随后一声枪响,悍匪毙命…,其实这是影视剧为了强化影视效果对观众的一种误导,因为通常我们的瞄准线是一条直线,而真正的子弹飞行路线却是一条弧线,这条不确定的神奇线路受到地球引力、温度、高度、风速、风向、射程等等客观因素的影响,所以射击时真正的弹着点和瞄准点是存在一定的偏差的,人们经过了长时间的实践和摸索,终于发现在已知上述条件的前提下,弹道或者说是弹着点是可以准确计算和预测的,然而,密林中潜伏的狙击手毕竟不同于都市中行走的商务白领,可以在手提包里带上台笔记本电脑,最初的狙击手们主要靠丰富的实战经验来粗略计算弹着点,以修正瞄准基线,如今这种做法和信息时代似乎有些格格不入,美国5.11H.R.T.手表为前线的狙击手们带来了福音,因为除了具备所有的计时功能外,这种能够达到100米防水深度的手表还搭载了一部小型弹道计算机,出色的解决了远距离射击时的弹道计算问题,在实际的使用过程中,手表需要做初始化和参数设定等一系列操作;下面就以图解的方式,为大家简要的介绍一下5.11H.R.T.弹道计算手表的功能和使用方法。     

海军著名人物——A.T.马汉

艾尔弗雷德·塞耶·马汉(Al-fred Thayer Mahan),生于1840年,卒于1914年。美国海军理论家和海军历史学家。1859年毕业于美国安纳波利斯海军学校。曾参加过美国南北战争。1886～1889