基于竞争失效的产品可靠性评估

为深入研究产品部件的可靠性,构建了竞争失效模型。基于退化失效和冲击失效的关联性建立竞争失效模型,在此基础上推导出产品的可靠度分析模型;引入Gamma过程对自然退化失效过程建模,通过退化增量描述随机冲击对自然退化的影响;引入Poisson过程对随机冲击失效过程建模,通过失效阈值的递减描述自然退化对随机冲击的影响;以具有退化失效和冲击失效特点的防滑刹车控制盒为对象,进行了可靠性对比分析,验证了竞争失效模型的合理性和有效性,为产品部件的可靠性评估提供了一种新的思路。     

加速寿命试验下复合失效产品的可靠性评估

产品往往受随机失效和耗损失效两种模式的双重影响,通过构建复合寿命分布模型来表征这类产品失效规律。在加速寿命试验下,基于极大似然估计构造了该类产品寿命参数估计的数值算法;为了验证该寿命分布是否真服从假定的复合分布,构建了常应力等效失效数据的柯尔莫哥诺夫分布检验法;最后,以电连接器这一典型产品为例进行了工程仿真试验并进行数据评估,从而验证了评估方法的正确性。     

考虑载荷作用次数的多失效模式扭力轴灵敏度分析

机械构件的不同的失效模式之间具有一定的相关性,而且随机载荷作用次数对机械构件的可靠性有一定程度的影响。因此对机械构件进行可靠性灵敏度分析时,需要充分考虑其不同失效模式和载荷作用次数的影响。通过运用顺序统计量理论考虑载荷多次作用以及多种失效模式条件下机械构件可靠性及可靠性灵敏度的变化规律,运用随机摄动理论和四阶矩技术,建立一种考虑载荷作用次数的多失效模式机械构件可靠性灵敏度分析数值方法的应力强度干涉模型。在随机变量前四阶矩已知的情况下,结合灵敏度分析的梯度算法,推导出关于随机变量均值和方差的灵敏度计算公式。以某履带车辆底盘扭力轴为例进行计算,得到其可靠度随载荷作用次数、随机变量均值和方差而改变的可靠性灵敏度变化曲线,为扭力轴的可靠性优化提供一定的理论依据。研究成果可以推广到相关机械可靠性灵敏度设计和结构优化领域,具有非常重要的实用意义。     

考虑退化-冲击竞争失效的系统可靠性建模

针对在复杂环境中工作的关键系统,提出一种考虑退化-冲击关联竞争失效的可靠性建模方法。选取Wiener过程和齐次泊松过程分别描述自然退化与随机冲击,通过冲击造成的退化增量表示退化-冲击之间的关联性,基于此建立退化-冲击关联竞争失效的退化模型和可靠性模型;通过定期检测获取系统退化数据,采用极大似然法估计退化模型参数;以陀螺仪为例,通过对比分析和敏感性分析验证了模型的有效性和应用价值。     

垂向冲击作用下金字塔点阵夹芯单元结构失效分析

为研究金字塔点阵夹芯结构在垂向冲击载荷作用下的动态力学性能,通过对其中一个单元结构在垂向压力作用下的受力和失效模式分析,同时考虑应变强化和应变率影响,建立了结构失效应力计算方法。为验证该计算方法,开展了落锤冲击试验,同时利用高速摄影机记录模型的响应过程,测量了模型垂向压缩的等效应力-应变关系。试验结果表明:结构失效模式与理论分析吻合,结构失效应力与理论计算相差不大。该研究结果可为金字塔点阵夹芯结构冲击吸能理论研究和数值仿真研究提供参考。     

金属类MEMS器件可靠性试验技术研究

针对金属类MEMS机构可靠性水平较低且没有标准化的可靠性试验方法的现状,提出将强化试验方法引入金属类MEMS机构的可靠性研究中．确定强化试验的内容为温度循环、随机振动和冲击试验,并分别设计试验剖面．选取MEMS惯性开关作为典型器件开展试验研究,试验结果表明,所设计的可靠性试验能够有效激发MEMS机构的潜在缺陷,温度应力易引起MEMS器件层间产生疲劳效应,而振动和冲击应力则易引发器件结构性损坏;环境应力对MEMS机构具有疲劳累积效应,经历较多试验类型的样本较经历较少试验类型的样本更容易失效;惯性开关的主要失效模式是分层和变形,这2种失效模式在金属类MEMS机构中具有代表性．     

基于似然比检验的橡胶密封件加速试验机理一致性判别方法

加速退化试验广泛应用于橡胶密封件等长寿命产品的可靠性评估,试验过程中需要将高应力水平下的试验结果外推到正常应力水平。要获得准确的产品可靠性评估结果,需要保证加速应力下的退化失效机理与正常应力下的退化失效机理一致。基于似然比检验原理,提出加速退化试验机理一致性判别方法及流程。针对失效机理一致与失效机理变化两种场合,提出对数线性及非对数线性两类加速模型,并结合混合效应模型描述产品退化过程。利用似然比检验判断加速模型参数是否变化,完成失效机理一致性判别。仿真算例和应用实例表明,该方法能够有效判别橡胶密封件失效机理是否变化,并找到失效机理不变的应力水平边界。     

基于复合失效模式的寿命分布检验方法

产品往往受随机失效和耗损失效两种模式的双重影响,因此,构造指数威布尔分布表征该类产品的失效规律。首先,用图检验法对该类产品的寿命数据进行初步检验;其次,研究了该类产品寿命数据的极大似然估计的求解方法,进一步用伽方检验方法对寿命分布类进行了检验;最后,通过工程仿真例子说明了该方法的具体操作流程,最终验证了方法的正确性。     

稳瞄与惯导组合系统电子产品可靠性综合分析

研究了新型稳瞄与惯性导航组合系统电子产品的可靠性综合分析方法,并给出电子产品分系统的可靠性分析模型.根据电子产品可靠性参数的验前信息以及无失效寿命数据,给出"无失效,小子样"情形的可靠性综合分析方法.该方法计算简便,结合组合系统实际情况,具有重要的工程实际意义.     

基于多目标参数的液压设备恒定应力加速寿命试验设计

在液压设备恒定应力加速寿命试验中,针对应力的加载方式引起的热冲击和单目标参数带来的分析精度问题,设计了基于多目标参数的液压设备恒定应力加速寿命试验.首先,利用Burr XII型分布建立恒定应力加速寿命试验的数学模型,并以试验产品分位寿命的渐近方差加权和最小为目标,计算出试验最优的低应力水平以及产品在低应力水平和高应力水平上的最佳分配比例;其次,计算出模型参数的置信区间并对模型参数进行敏感性分析;最后,以某液压产品为实例进行分析.结果表明:该试验有助于提高液压产品可靠性分析的精度.     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

India's counter-insurgency experience: the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy

The Indian Army, a force trained primarily for conventional warfare, has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s. Despite such a long innings on a counter-insurgency mode, little attention has been accorded within military circles to doctrinal innovation for waging sub-conventional warfare in India's democratic political context. At best, the Army continues to view counter-insurgency duty as secondary to its primary duty of defending India from external conventional threats. By conceptualizing a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’, this article aims to fill this critical doctrinal gap in India's military policy. The author argues that a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’ based on democratic political culture, measured military methods, special counter-insurgency forces, local social and cultural awareness and an integrative nation-building approach will result in positive handling of India's internal security problems. The author utilizes India's counter-insurgency experiences in Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation ‘Sadhbhavana’ in Jammu and Kashmir as illustrative empirical indicants in order to validate the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.