第一次朝鲜核危机中的国际冲突管理

第一次朝鲜核危机是冷战后朝鲜半岛地区对重大冲突事件管理成功的典型案例之一。本文从国际冲突管理的角度,对第一次朝鲜核危机的发生背景、冲突的爆发过程、冲突的管理过程、冲突后的重建、冲突成功管理的原因等进行了深入分析。     

基于冲突理论的灭火救援战勤保障协同机制构建

协同保障是消防部队战勤保障现场保障主要形式,作为组织整体协同行动,必然存在组织冲突。消除保障分队间的组织冲突根源是提高灭火救援战勤保障效率的有效支撑,运用功能倍增机理,从协同形成机制、实现机制以及约束机制三方面建立科学的协同保障机制,才能有力指导保障组织指挥和保障要素整合,以实现战勤保障有序化、规范化,提高战勤保障系统协同保障效应。     

冲突经济学：一种新的视野与方法——兼评《冲突经济学原理》

生产和掠夺构成人类两种最基本的生存方式,前者导致财富总量的增长,而后者则导致财富归属的冲突。冲突经济学应用经济学的概念、理论和方法研究冲突现象,其研究对象包括宏观冲突和微观冲突。《冲突经济学原理》为深入理解冲突选择、冲突的经济动因和冲突的经济后果提供了很好的分析视角,也为从方法和内容两个方面较全面理解冲突经济学提供了很好的分析框架。     

俄乌冲突对南海局势的影响与中国应对

迄今,俄乌冲突已持续一年有余,战火不仅给俄乌两国和周边地区造成破坏,其影响也在不断外溢,引起南海局势的变化。针对俄乌冲突,南海各声索国的立场不一。俄乌冲突对南海局势的影响体现在外交政策、双边贸易和能源开发等方面。为应对南海局势变化带来的冲击,我国有必要在多方面采取应对措施,维护海洋利益。     

图书推介

冲突在人类社会无处不在,政治冲突、军事冲突、种族冲突、群体冲突、能源冲突……。冲突的结果无不是人们生命财产的损失和百姓的流离失所。人类需要通过合作减少冲突,建立一个和平、合作与可持续发展的世界。     

基于互冲突量和自冲突量分析的证据聚类方法

从证据自身的描述形式出发,充分利用证据之间的冲突程度,对证据的聚类问题进行系统的分析。在对证据互冲突量和自冲突量进行详细定义的基础上,建立了证据聚类准则,进而提出了基于互冲突量和自冲突量的证据聚类方法。该方法具有良好的处理效果,且计算复杂度小,便于编程实现,是一种简便实用的快速聚类方法。实例验证了方法的有效性和可行性。     

联合作战条件下灭火救援战斗编成研究

多个单位联合作战是灭火救援行动的主要形式。但在联合作战的整体协同行动中,组织冲突实际是存在着的,在一定程度上影响着各战斗单元间、人装间的有效整合和战斗力的充分发挥。在有效解决联合作战中组织冲突的基础上,通过科学制定战斗编成模式,增强战斗编成组织适应性,是提高灭火救援战斗力水平的有效途径之一。     

文明的差异是当今世界冲突和战争的主要根源吗?——驳亨廷顿的“文明冲突论”

“冷战”结束后,冲突和战争不但没有销声匿迹,反而在某些地区和国家突出起来。怎样认识和理解这些冲突和战争的动因和根源?国内外专家学者众说纷纭,莫衷一是。其中美国哈佛大学政治学教授、奥林战略研究所所长塞缪尔·P·亨廷顿提出的“文明冲突论”,为目前西方学术界较有影响力的一派,在美国及国际社会学术界引起了反响,并受到了许多西方政治家们的关注。本文以马克思主义战争观为依据,从历史和现实的结合上,批评和驳斥了亨廷顿的基本观点,并对当今世界冲突和战争的动因和根源提出了自己的见解,该文高屋建瓴,据实论理,给人以一定的启迪。     

基于布尔网络的指挥控制关系网络演化冲突检测研究

指挥控制组织内部各个实体之间的无冲突的协同配合对使命任务的完成具有重要作用,然而指挥控制组织的内部冲突往往是隐性的,不易被发现。利用生物群落中种群数量演化分析方法,提出一种基于布尔网络的指挥控制关系网络演化模型,通过指挥控制关系网络演化稳定结果的检测,来分析和检验指挥控制组织的合理性,并用一个示例分析和说明该方法的有效性。     

冲突证据组合中的模型修正新方法

针对经典DS组合规则在证据高度冲突情况下的失效问题,提出了一种改进的证据组合方法.通过引入证据间的距离函数获得证据之间的相似度和各个证据的支持度,并由此求得各个证据的归一化可信度.提出了一种改进的证据冲突检验方法,利用可信度加权平均证据对各个证据源进行冲突检验和修正,以消除证据之间的冲突.最后利用DS规则获得合成证据.数值算例表明,该算法能有效地融合高度冲突的证据,提高了证据组合结果的可靠性和合理性.     

Dealing with the fast-changing environment in the eastern DRC

This paper is a study of the phenomenon of trans-border ethnic relations and its impact on national integration and citizenship in the countries of West and Central Africa where trans-border ethnic groups exist. Despite the existence of many such groups in these regions, and the numerous problems associated with the continued relations among these groups across their countries of abode, the phenomenon has not been seriously studied, especially as it concerns the identification of members of such groups and how they are viewed by members of other ethnic groups, as citizens of one country or the other. This paper notes that trans-border ethnic solidarity ordinarily presents the relevant African states with two possibilities, namely: enormous benefits accruing from regional integration and cooperation among states harbouring fractions of trans-border ethnic groups; or, debilitating conflicts within and between these states. It is the reality of the latter possibility that this paper examines. The states and the international system are often incapable of containing this phenomenon of trans-border ethnic solidarity and usually respond in hostile ways, ultimately manifesting in citizenship problems. The study shows, however, that what is needed is not conflict but cooperation – within and between states having fractions of a trans-border ethnic group, and within the international system, for the enhancement of national citizenship and development in West and Central Africa.     

Walking a tightrope: the International Criminal Court and conflict prevention in Africa

Many African countries gained political independence in the 1960s. This era of independence came with promises and great expectations of economic, political and social development. Fifty years later, it is certain that the promises and expectations of independence have not been easily realised. Perennial violent conflicts have continued to ravage many countries in Africa, causing the catastrophic breakdown of law and order. Therefore, one of the major issues in conflict resolution discourse in Africa is how to develop functional mechanisms for the prevention of violent conflicts. This article examines the capacity of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to act as a mechanism for conflict prevention in Africa. Notwithstanding the doubts and uncertainties associated with the impact of law on conflict transformation, this article argues in the main that the ICC contributes to conflict prevention in Africa by expressing global norms of international law, challenging the culture of impunity in some countries, contributing to general deterrence, speedily intervening in some violent conflicts, and contributing to building some records of atrocities by identifying who did what.     

基于不可信证据源与冲突重分配的证据合成方法

针对D-S证据理论在高冲突下失效的问题,在比较修正原始证据源和重新分配冲突两种方法的基础上,提出一种新的合成规则,新方法用可信度修正证据的同时,把全局冲突分为两部分,并依据"全局冲突在全局分配、局部冲突在局部分配"的原则对冲突进行细化分配。通过仿真分析,并与其他方法比较,新的合成方法能更好地融合冲突证据,收敛速度快,具有较强的抗干扰能力。     

MAS中Agent属性冲突形式化描述及消解系统研究

由于多智能体系统(MAS)中各个Agent具有自治性、分布性和异构性等特征,导致MAS内部经常会出现冲突现象。首先,运用数学方法对MAS中存在的属性冲突进行形式化描述,并将其分为6类,针对每类冲突提出了相应的消解对策。其次,对属性冲突智能消解系统(AACIRS)流程框架进行了分析,并在此基础上建立了AACIRS系统,实现了MAS中属性冲突的消解。从而为解决MAS中Agent属性冲突提供了解决方案,为MAS的稳定运行提供了技术保证。     

Democracy index for Africa, 2010

ABSTRACT

Natural resource-based conflicts continue to occur in different parts of Nigeria with negative implications. This study investigated the phenomena of natural resource conflicts vis-à-vis their propensities to impact political economy and national security negatively. Data for the study were sourced from theoretical and empirical evidence. Empirical data were sourced from existing studies selected on the basis on their relevance to the study and analysed based on their content. The limitation to this approach is the obsolete and subjective nature of some the literature. This limitation was, however, addressed among others through the author’s knowledge of the issues under study. The study found that Nigeria is enmeshed in conflict over ownership, distribution, access to or competition over natural resources such as petroleum resources and agricultural land and these conflicts have undermined democracy, human rights, the economy and the nation’s security. The paper identified poor resource governance, environmental factors and poor political leadership as the causes and drivers of these conflicts. It recommends natural resource governance among others, as a way out of the problem.     

一种并行工程冲突管理原型系统的开发

并行产品开发模式下,由于设计者知识的局限性、系统资源的有限性等多种因素的限制,冲突的产生是不可避免的。为减少冲突,提高产品开发效率,文章以坦克火控系统的研制为背景,用面向对象的程序设计语言Visual Basic 6.0编写源程序,通过VB6.0附带的工具程序“可视化数据管理器”建立数据库,开发了一种并行工程冲突管理原型系统。该系统界面友好,功能强大,不仅有效地检测和解决了产品开发、过程中可能出现的冲突,而且它对面向数据库的数据处理系统的开发,具有一定的参考价值。     

Create compliance and cohesion: how rebel organizations manage to survive

Established conflict theories focus on the role of incentives in the decision to join, stay, or leave an insurgency. These theories, however, disregard the pressure that an organization can impose on its members. Similar to legal organizations, we assert that a rebel organization can sustain itself by effective human resource management. Using narratives resulting from psychological trauma therapy of former combatants of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), these management strategies are examined. The analysis shows that the LRA sustains itself in the first place by the use of brute force. However, they also manage themselves by a careful selection process of their fighters, by the conscious creation of social control, and by offering their members an alternative social network in which promotion and compensation play a role.     

THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

The armed conflict in the DRC has been characterised by appalling, widespread and systematic human rights violations. It varies from civil war to a war between national armies. Much of the conflict falls between these two categories due to the involvement of foreign troops in civil strife, as well as foreign rebel groups fighting their home government's troops but on Congolese soil. The most pressing need is to cease hostilities and address the humanitarian situation in the country. Questions of justice and accountability, and issues relating to the rule of law will have to be addressed soon in order to achieve a durable peace in the country and in the region. Since there are links between different conflicts in the region, a broader solution should preferably be found. However, this would further complicate an already difficult proposition. Efforts limited to the DRC would be more feasible and could lead to similar measures in other conflict ridden countries in the region. This essay therefore discusses the available processes for justice.     

Establishment,simulation and verification of firepower safety control model

On a narrow warship platform, the coordinated use of shipborne weapon systems may cause firepower conflicts, which seriously endangers the ship safety. Meanwhile, with directed-energy weapons mounted on ships, firepower conflicts between weapons become a “high probability event”. Aiming at the problem of firepower safety control, based on the research about the collision probability model of air crafts and space targets and according to the cone of fire model of conventional weapons and directed-energy weapons, this paper solved the firepower conflict probabilities between conventional weapons as well as between conventional weapons and directed-energy weapons respectively using the methods of probability theory, and established the firepower safety control model. Then the calculation of firepower conflict probability was carried out using the dimensionality reduction method based on the equivalent conversion of polar coordinates and the power series method based on Laplace transform. The simulation results revealed that the proposed model and calculation methods are effective and reliable, which can provide theoretical basis and technical support for resolution of firepower conflicts between weapons.