基于双向启发式属性约简的战术决策建模研究

从预警机指挥引导的多机协同空战原则分析出发,针对超视距协同空战决策过程中的不确定性和不完备性问题,提出了一种不完备信息系统中的基于双向启发式属性约简的战术粗决策建模方法。首先考虑粗糙集决策过程中条件属性发生缺失或不确定的情况,根据扩展不完备信息概念建立了不完备决策信息系统的最优完备选择;其次基于分辨矩阵的属性约简算法,以属性频度的大小作为启发信息进行决策信息系统约简的双向选择,得出决策信息系统的最佳约简集合;然后依据使决策最有可能发生的原则,给出决策信息系统的最优选择,以该最优选择为代表提取出决策规则;最后根据软、硬杀伤结合使用的CGF实体超视距协同空战作战想定,建立了CGF实体综合战术决策模型,并通过作战决策实例对该方法的正确性和有效性进行了验证。结果表明：该方法能在作战态势信息不完备的情况下正确给出CGF实体综合战术行为。     

基于条件熵的不完备信息系统属性约简算法

在相容关系下定义了三种不完备条件熵——H′条件熵、E′条件熵和I′条件熵,并对它们的性质进行了分析比较,研究发现,H′条件熵和I′条件熵不适用于相容关系下信息观点的约简。利用E′条件熵刻画信息系统中属性的相对重要性,设计了一种新的基于信息论观点的启发式约简算法,它统一了完备信息系统与非完备信息系统中的约简方法。通过实例说明,该算法能得到决策表的相对约简。     

雷达干扰效能评估指标体系的构建方法

建立合理的干扰效能评估指标体系是实现雷达干扰效能综合评估的前提,首先分析了影响雷达干扰效能的要素,提出了一种由雷达受到干扰后的战术性能变化、干扰机主要战术性能参数和电磁环境因素建立雷达干扰效能评估指标集的方法。然后应用粗糙集属性约简算法对该指标集进行约简,删除了冗余属性,并对约简后的指标体系进行了有效性检验。仿真结果表明,该指标体系具有较好的完备性和独立性。     

再生分辨矩阵与决策熵的不完备决策系统属性约简

为了有效地解决不完备决策系统的属性约简问题,提高属性约简的效率,提出了基于再生分辨矩阵与决策熵的不完备属性约简算法。该算法利用基于容差关系的分辨矩阵来计算相对核,通过再生分辨矩阵计算再生集和再生集属性来缩小加入约简集的条件属性选择范围,以再生集属性的分辨度和决策熵为依据,选择加入约简集的条件属性,并通过实例进行验证分析。结果表明,该算法适用于协调不完备决策系统与不协调不完备决策系统,能够有效地降低时间复杂度,并得到最优属性约简。     

新型小规模装备备件品种确定的犹豫模糊粗糙集决策方法

针对新研装备备件品种确定过程中决策信息“犹豫性”和“模糊性”特点突出、难以运用传统备件品种确定方法进行决策的问题,提出一种基于犹豫模糊粗糙集的备件品种确定方法。利用风险偏好系数对不完备犹豫模糊信息进行数值延拓,为构建不同风险偏好下备件品种确定的犹豫模糊决策信息系统奠定了基础；考虑得分函数和数值延拓边界的综合因素影响给出了改进的包含度计算公式,并基于包含度定义进行了证明；给出了基于改进包含度计算的备件品种决策属性的约简条件和规则获取方法,实现了犹豫模糊决策信息的深度挖掘和有效利用。以某新研装备备件品种确定为例进行了方法验证,研究结果表明：通过该法能够有效处理犹豫模糊决策信息,获取精简实用的备件品种决策规则集,验证了方法的可行性。     

相控阵雷达维修方案优选方法研究

针对相控阵雷达维修方案的选择问题,确定了维修方案的决策属性,并提出一种基于改进TOPSIS法的相控阵雷达维修方案优选方法。该方法通过引入Vague集来处理维修方案选择中存在的模糊信息,并采用博弈论综合赋权法来确定决策属性的综合权重。通过计算各备选方案与正、负理想方案的灰色关联度,得到了维修方案的灰色关联相对贴近度,进而实现对维修方案的排序和选择。最后,通过算例应用与分析,对提出的方法进行了验证。     

改进的TOPSIS法在雷达干扰资源分配中的应用

对雷达进行侦查是干扰雷达的前提,由于侦查无法得到精确的实际雷达工作参数,而只能得到一个工作参数区间,因此属性值为确定值的多属性决策方法是不适用的.从多个属性出发,提出改进的基于逼近理想解排序的TOPSIS法,针对属性权重信息不完全且属性值为区间数的特征,将多属性决策问题运用到雷达干扰资源分配中来,对雷达干扰资源进行优选配置,通过多个无线传感器干扰节点协同干扰,使其达到最佳的干扰效果.     

证据推理方法中不完备信息影响因素分析

不确定条件下的不完备信息分析是多属性决策中的主要内容之一,Yang提出的证据推理方法可以较好地处理这类信息。研究了证据推理方法中不完备信息的影响因素,包括规则中的不完备信息,规则的权重以及规则的一致性,并以此为基础分析了评估结果中不完备信息的取值范围,得出了初步结论:评估结果中不完备信息的信度必然小于作为输入的规则中不完备信息中的较大者,但不一定大于其中的较小者。进一步分析了规则一致性的逻辑意义和几何意义,指出规则的一致性实际描述了规则之间的冲突程度。     

末端防御作战中火控雷达组网系统应用研究

火控雷达组网是应对未来末端防御作战挑战的有效途径。提出了基于指挥信息系统的火控雷达组网方式,并分析了该方式的优势。继而基于末端防御战斗部署一般要求和火控雷达组网系统对空侦察配系的特殊要求,经仿真计算得出和分析了火控雷达组网系统的典型对空侦察配系。最后详细论述了火控雷达组网系统的指挥控制要点。研究结果对于促进末端防御部队形成以信息系统为核心的体系作战能力具有重要意义。     

基于鲁棒性分析的ELECTRE-III参数推断方法

鉴于鲁棒性分析近几年被期望成为解决多属性决策中信息不完备的有效工具,提出了一种基于经典规划的鲁棒性分析框架。就ELECTRE-Ⅲ的参数给出了不完全信息条件下的鲁棒性判别条件和鲁棒性设计步骤。分析计算结果表明这种方法是实用有效的,为ELECTRE-Ⅲ和其他经典多属性决策方法参数的设置提供了新的思路,同时对其他多属性决策方法也有适用性。     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Panjwai: a tale of two COINs in Afghanistan

The US Army has two approaches to counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. One is hard, or combat-focused, and the other is soft, or development-focused. This study examines two US Army task forces deployed to Panjwai District, Afghanistan from 2012 to 2013. CTF 4-9 and 1-38 offer a meaningful comparison because they pursued these contrasting approaches among the same population and against the same enemy at the same time and place. The study compares each unit’s approach and finds that neither approach was successful absent the other. The article concludes by recommending further research into combining the approaches at the operational level.     

线性核时频信号表示及其仿真

根据ｃｈｉｒｐ信号在模糊域的特点,本文提出了线性核时频表示方法。这种方法在提高分辨率、消除交叉项以及抑制噪声等方面都具有较高的性能。理论分析和实验结果都证实了这种方法的有效性     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

Forecasting a Hurricane: Israeli and American Estimations of the Khomeini Revolution

The surprising ‘Arab Spring’ raises the question as to what would enable national intelligence to provide high quality warnings prior to the eruption of popular revolutions. This article uses new sources of evidence to trace and explain Israel's success in comparison to US failure at correctly estimating the course of the Iranian Revolution in 1977–79. In explaining this variance, the article shows that it was mainly the result of the intimate acquaintance of Israel's representatives in Iran with the local language, history and culture, as well as the ability to communicate with locals – tools which the Americans completely lacked.     

关于教师继续教育培训模式的思考

继续教育作为终身教育的重要组成部分和基本形式,对教师的发展成长意义重大。继续教育工作开展十多年来,取得了一定的成绩,但还存在不少问题,如学习动机较为被动,管理认识不到位,教学内容陈旧空泛,教学方法呆板机械等。随着课程改革的不断深入,继续教育必须采取相应的改进措施,树立以人为本,服务至上的观点,教学内容的前瞻性与实用性并重,教学人员进行整合,教学方法灵活多样,评价考核规范科学等,以此激活受训教师内在的学习动机,更大程度地提高继续教育培训的实际效果。     

用DirectShow实现网络视频

目前市场上的网络监控技术一般用昂贵的硬件设备来支撑,投资较大。在深入研究微软的DirectX9.0的基础上,提出如何用DirectShow软件技术和普通的数字摄像头来实现网络视频的监控和实现技术,内容涉及通信协议、视频的编码与解码技术、视频的编码格式和COM组件编程技术等,最终的实验结果令人满意,且费用低廉,技术可靠,为在高速局域网内构建视频监控系统提供有效的技术支持。     

Interpreting the Ribchester Helmet

In 1796 a 13-year-old boy playing on wasteland behind his father’s house in Ribchester, Lancashire discovered an assemblage of over 30 Roman artefacts, including a decorated brass helmet. Although partially corroded the Ribchester helmet is a fine example of a first-century AD cavalry sports helmet. This article considers how the interpretation of the helmet has evolved since its discovery. The multi-faceted iconography of the helmet with its mural crown diadem is that of an elite soldier and is paralleled in other examples of cavalry sports helmets of the Ribchester type. The long-neglected imagery on the helmet bowl is reinterpreted and seen not as a haphazard collection of randomly placed combatants but as a highly structured, symmetrical composition specifically designed to be viewed from different directions.     

Desert insurgency: lessons from the third Tuareg rebellion

This article provides an in-depth examination and analysis of the 2006–2009 Tuareg rebellion in Mali and Niger. It identifies the underlying reasons behind the rebellion, explores contrasting counter-insurgency (COIN) strategies employed by the two governments, and presents some lessons learned. While both COIN approaches ultimately produced similar peace settlements, the article argues that the Malian strategy of reconciliation combined with the selective use of force was far more effective than the Nigerien iron fist approach at limiting the size and scope of the insurgency and producing a more sustainable peace. It concludes by looking at the role of external actors, particularly the United States, and how the failure to internationalize the conflict was actually more beneficial to the local COIN effort, as well as to the longer strategic interests of the United States in the region.