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1.
坦克稳像火控系统射击精度分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
从射击准备和射弹散布两个方面,对坦克稳像火控系统射击误差进行了较全面地分析,提出了射击误差的计算方法,并在此基础上对坦克使用稳像火控系统射击时的首发命中概率进行了计算 相似文献
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Determination of the gunfire probability of kill against a target requires two parameters to be taken into consideration: the likelihood of hitting the target (susceptibility) and the conditional probability of kill given a hit (vulnerability). Two commonly used methods for calculating the latter probability are (1) treating each hit upon the target independently, and (2) setting an exact number of hits to obtain a target kill. Each of these methods contains an implicit assumption about the probability distribution of the number of hits‐to‐kill. Method (1) assumes that the most likely kill scenario occurs with exactly one hit, whereas (2) implies that achieving a precise number of hits always results in a kill. These methods can produce significant differences in the predicted gun effectiveness, even if the mean number of hits‐to‐kill for each distribution is the same. We therefore introduce a new modeling approach with a more general distribution for the number of hits‐to‐kill. The approach is configurable to various classes of damage mechanism and is able to match both methods (1) and (2) with a suitable choice of parameter. We use this new approach to explore the influence of various damage accumulation models on the predicted effectiveness of weapon‐target engagements. 相似文献
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根据射击毁伤理论和概率统计学,在现有点目标毁伤概率求解方法基础之上提出考虑目标定位误差的解析法和仿真法.计算结果表明2种方法均准确可行.通过对比分析得出不同弹药量、不同目标特性条件下,定位误差对毁伤概率的影响程度.运用解析法得出点目标的单发命中概率服从χ2分布,通过大量仿真得出目标定位误差可忽略的条件为WmaxRCEP/ω. 相似文献
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C. J. Ancker Jr. 《海军后勤学研究》1984,31(3):363-371
The fundamental stochastic duel considers two opponents who fire at each other at either random continuous or fixed-time intervals with a constant hit probability on each round fired. Each starts with an unloaded weapon, unlimited ammunition, and unlimited time. The first to hit wins. In this article we extend the theory to the case where hit probabilities are functions of the time since the duel began. First, the marksman firing at a passive target is considered and the characteristic function of the time to a hit is developed. Then, the probability of a given side winning the duel is derived. General solutions for a wide class of hit probability functions are derived. Specific examples of both the marksman and the duel problem are given. 相似文献
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Yoram Friedman 《海军后勤学研究》1977,24(3):507-510
Various models of stochastic duels with round dependent hit probabilities have appeared in the literature [1]. However, none of them analyzed the effect interfiring times will have on the hit probability. In this paper we formulate a model for a marksman versus a passive target where the probability of a hit at a given round is a function of the interfiring times. We show how to solve for the optimal interfiring times and prove that under certain assumptions the optimal rate of fire is a non-decreasing function of the round fired. 相似文献
6.
某型火箭弹对巡航导弹毁伤概率仿真分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
通过对巡航导弹目标特性分析,论述了目标易损性和毁伤机理(包括破片战斗部对目标的击穿概率模型)。利用破片初速及存速计算模型,分析了战斗部爆破后破片速度衰减规律,并做了模拟仿真,为火箭弹战斗部设计及毁伤效能评估提供了理论依据。最后根据射弹散布规律及毁伤原理建立了毁伤模型,并以某型火箭弹为例,对毁伤概率模型进行了仿真分析。仿真结果表明:该方法为火箭弹战斗部设计和提高对巡航导弹毁伤概率提供了参考。 相似文献
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为了优化移动平台基线修正的精度指标,首先推导了由基线测量误差引起的目标现在点定位误差计算公式,进而得到了基线测量误差影响下的系统命中概率计算公式.理论分析与Monte—Carlo仿真表明,与移动平台间的基线测量精度相比,目标观测设备相对移动平台的基线测量精度对命中概率的影响更加显著. 相似文献
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舰炮火力决策中要依据射击效力实时评估结果,对评估准确性有较高高要求。本方法针对火炮系统闭环校射技术的特点,利用跟踪雷达提供的弹目脱靶量,将弹丸脱靶量实测数据用于修正原解析算法得出的弹丸单发命中概率,修正多发弹丸累积毁伤概率。评估过程应用了已测量的弹丸脱靶量,与传统解析估算法相比,由于最大程度地利用了实测数据代替误差估计数据,具有较高的精度。 相似文献
12.
林海 《装甲兵工程学院学报》1994,(Z1)
本文通过装有××型简易火控系统的中型坦克,利用短停射击的方法,对斜方向(航路为45°)运动目标射击进行了误差分析和命中概率的计算,从射击的角度说明了新装备火力性能的先进性,进而提出在新的军事战略方针和新装备条件下,发展射击教范和改进训练方法的几点看法. 相似文献
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Dennis C. Gilliland 《海军后勤学研究》1968,15(4):507-516
Given a target T in Euclidean n-space Rn and a point bomb whose point of impact in Rn is governed by a probability distribution about the aim point a, what choice of a maximizes the probability of a hit va(T)? Of course, only in special cases is an exact solution of this problem obtainable. This paper treats targets T which are symmetric about the origin o and demonstrates conditions on the extent of T and the impact density f, a density with respect to Lebesgue measure, sufficient for va(T) to be monotone in the distance from a to o and maximized at a = o. The results are applied to various tactical situations. 相似文献
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对目标打击概率的数学模型及分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
通过分析识别跟踪攻击目标的过程,建立了攻击目标打击概率的数学模型和基本算法,通过计算机采用蒙特卡罗法模拟计算了不同条件下对目标的打击概率,以此研究影响打击概率的因素.计算结果表明,武器系统的作战半径和威力半径两个因素对打击概率影响较大,误差因素在一定范围内影响较小,各参数之间存在优化匹配的空间. 相似文献
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《防务技术》2010,(1)
The wind effects on steady-state scan characteristics and hit probability of terminal-sensitive projectile were discussed in this paper. Considering wind as the constitutions of the average wind and the impulsive wind, a simplified wind field model was established for the ballistic calculation of the steady-state scan phase; under the windy condition, the effects of the range wind and the beam wind on the steady-state scan characteristics of the terminal-sensitive projectile were analyzed in detail and its hit probabilities for a certain armored target were calculated. The calculated results show that, when the wind speed exceeds a certain value, the hit probabilities of terminal-sensitive projectile drop rapidly; the wind effects must be considered in the application of the terminal-sensitive projectiles. This paper provides some theoretical references for the fire wind speed correction and the global structure optimization of the terminal-sensitive projectile. 相似文献
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Alan R. Washburn 《海军后勤学研究》1974,21(4):705-713
This paper includes two simple analytic formulas for kill probability that are applicable in circumstances where shots should be fired in a pattern. The two formulas bracket the maximum kill probability achievable with an optimal pattern. The upper bound corresponds to an optimal nonfeasible pattern, and the lower bound to a nonoptimal feasible pattern. 相似文献
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阐述了模型校核的意义和作用。对属于模型校核范畴的仿真中的系统状态不连贯问题的基本概念通过乒乓球的下落和反舰导弹攻击目标舰艇的例子进行了说明。介绍了已有的解决系统状态不连贯问题的三种方法,并进行了优、缺点分析。给出了反舰导弹仿真中的目标命中判断模型。指出,反舰导弹仿真中的目标命中判断问题是一个系统状态不连贯问题。为解决该问题,提出并应用了一种新方法预测法。利用预测法,最多进行两步最小步长仿真,就能够以要求的精确度检测到任何一个系统状态不连贯。相对于以前的三种方法,在提高仿真效率的同时,预测法还能够避免对系统状态不连贯问题的漏检。 相似文献
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在分析目前射击精度的理论和影响射击精度因素的基础上,对命中率计算公式中的散布圆半径进行修正,修正后的参数考虑了人对精度的影响。根据实弹射击结果,具体验证了修正后的公式。 相似文献