Obligation to prevent (O2P): Proposal for enhanced community approach to genocide prevention in Africa

As empathetic as distant nations may feel about an ongoing or looming catastrophe in a particular region of Africa, they are too far removed from the horror to grasp its gravity and impact. Geographical proximity to the atrocity, and the likelihood of its spreading to their neighbourhoods, make the communities and neighbouring countries in the imploding region the best and most effective first responders to a crisis in their own backyard. A response from ‘communal’ or ‘regional’ groups is, therefore, the most practical measure for preventing human rights violations in Africa from descending into an actual genocide or an intractable genocidal condition. A community approach to preventing genocide and other human rights abuses should serve as the foundation for a new concept of ‘moral pan-Africanism’ on the African continent in the 21^st century. This article makes an argument for this genocide prevention model and new moral concept.     

Insurgent courts in civil wars: the three pathways of (trans)formation in today’s Syria (2012–2017)

As part of research on the meso-foundations of conflict, the field of ‘rebel governance’ examines political institutions that regulate the affairs of civilians in wartime as well as their relations with armed actors. Judicial institutions play an important role in this and research has shown that they are widespread among both historical and current insurgencies. However, usually these bodies have been analysed in the context of one hegemonic faction like the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka and the Afghan Taliban. What is missing so far is an analysis of different pathways of (trans)formation of rebel courts. As exemplified by the three case studies of judicial institutions in Eastern Ghouta, Idlib and Aleppo, these are shaped by the distribution of power between ‘same-side’ groups, yielding unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar constellations. The analysis is located on the meso or movement level of insurgent social structures, complementing research on the micro and macro levels.     

多主体系统建模方法探索

本文提出结合组织学理论研究多主体系统（ Ｍ Ａ Ｓｓ）建模的一种方法。文章从宏观到微观，在整体组织、个体和并发行为等不同抽象层次上论述了分析与设计多主体系统的建模方法，并详细介绍了用于多主体系统设计的系统组织模型、主体概念模型和分布式协作求解模型三个抽象模型的主要研究内容。     

创新微时代军事微话语的大传播格局

随着"微博""微电影""微信""微视"等快速涌现,人类社会已进入"微时代"。通过微理论与微实践分析,研究了微技术与微平台,阐述了微组织与微法规,剖析了微活动与微内容,介绍了微人才与微受众。研究表明,军队媒体要紧跟微时代,开展大传播;善用微平台,发挥大作为;整合微信息,打造大数据;聚焦微生活,放眼大世界;增强微媒商,建设威阵地。     

Changing civilian support for the Maoist conflict in India

Prolonged domestic political conflicts change over time. The Maoist conflict in India which began in the late 1960s is one such conflict. Over time, the ‘old’ Maoist conflict has become a ‘new’ Maoist conflict. Important changes have occurred both in the macro and micro processes of the conflict. Some of these changes include the strategic relocation of the Maoist bases, a shift in the class character of the conflict, the nature of civilian support, and the rebels' methods of operation. While in the 1960s, the conflict was involved in land redistribution with the aim of annihilating class enemies, the recent conflict focuses on caste identities. In addition, it is intrinsically linked with territorial control and local political competition. This has automatically led the Maoists to become involved with local criminal networks and also local business networks based. This involvement has led to financial resources for the conflict. Furthermore, it has forced the local population to become linked with the conflict. Studying these changes is important, especially for counterinsurgency policies.     

Colombian Military Thinking and the Fight against the FARC-EP Insurgency, 2002–2014

This article attempts to place in historical perspective the latest effort by Colombia’s military (Colmil) to defeat the now half century old insurgency of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – Ejército del Pueblo (FARC-EP). It argues that the ‘surge’ initiated under President Álvaro Uribe in 2002 with the assistance of the United States can only be fully analyzed in the context of the Colmil’s intellectual framework for counter-insurgency. Specifically, this article will explain how the protracted engagement with counter-insurgency has shaped the Colmil’s understanding of the nature of the conflict, as well as its attitudes towards its adversary, civil authority and the instrumentality of force. An understanding of the Colmil’s strategic tradition can also help to explain their apprehensions about the ongoing peace negotiations with the FARC-EP.     

Legacy of Bitterness: Insurgency in North West Rwanda

The insurgency in North West Rwanda is a good example of a small scale conflict that provides a first step into the more complex world of regional instability in central Africa. Following the genocide of 1994, genocidaires and ex-military personnel fled to what was then Zaire and established a network of anti-Tutsi bases. Linking up with local groups in Eastern Zaire, these insurgents, usually known as ‘infiltrators’ have carried out a low-intensity but consistent insurgency campaign in Rwanda.

The constant barrage of propaganda aimed at the local population, a technique pioneered during the 1994 genocide, has led to a general, manufactured support for the insurgency. In particular, those people returning from Zaire have been fed a constant diet of anti-Tutsi and Rwandese Patriotic Army (RPA) propaganda, making it easier to act against these groups. Even within the local government and other official bodies, there are widespread Hutu sympathies that have led to additional aid reaching the insurgents.

The particular strain of ethnic violence has led to an insurgency in which civilian villages are as likely to be attacked as RPA military installations. More surprising, given the nature of the insurgency, Hutus themselves have been targets. Initially, moderate Hutus were singled out as examples, but increasingly indiscriminate killings have been aiming to force all Hutus to take sides.

The insurgents have deliberately polarised large parts of Rwanda and this has profound implications for conflict resolution. In particular, supplementing the military campaign with political social campaigns, at least partly to combat the mythology of grievance among the Hutus, and tackling the conflict as part of a supra-national conflict that goes beyond ‘national’ borders.     

‘Blackmailing the army’ – ‘Strategic Military Refusal’ as policy and doctrine enforcement: the formation of a new security agent

The study shows how ‘strategic military refusal’ in Israel developed as a rational and institutional means to influence security policies. As opposed to the perspective that sees military refusal as a spontaneous individual act, the study illustrates how organizations operate to distribute military refusal in order to pressure decision-makers to change their military policies. This strategy has proven to be effective when the military is involved with groups that threaten it with refusal – which threatens the military's operational ability and its official and apolitical image. These include soldiers whose civilian authorities, rather than their military commanders, are perceived as an epistemic authority regarding security issues. The case study refers to the impact of strategic military refusal in Israel on security policies and the military doctrine. This was influenced by leftist groups, which, although they belonged to the parliamentary opposition, had dominant presence in the military ranks. Furthermore, the study examines the effect of the use of strategic military refusal on the model of military recruitment.     

Introduction

The French defense policy has been considered unique among western countries. This policy relies on the concept of ‘strategic autonomy’, which is based on nuclear deterrence, autonomy of action, independence of defense industry, and arms exports. From an economic perspective, it implies major consequences both at the macroeconomic and microeconomic levels. Given its importance, it is crucial to use economic expertise to provide insights on defense policy.     

Capitalism & the “new wars”: free markets and societal insecurity before and after the cold war, 1970–2013

Critics of globalisation suggest that growing free-market conditions generate anomie, leading ultimately to what some term ‘new wars’ and new insecurities. Others argue that liberal economies dissuade violence since people gain from peace. This study argues for a micro perspective that views predatory economic policies driving higher investment in rebellion-specific capital, such as shadow economic activity that easily translates into insurgency in weak-state settings. Investment in the shadows determines survivability against superior state forces, and survivability determines rebellion, by definition. Using civil war onset data from 1970 to 2013, as well as the Global Peace Index (GPI) and several of its individual components, which capture societal insecurity above and beyond the absence of armed violence, this study finds that countries that are more capitalistic have a lower risk of civil war and societal insecurity. The results are robust to alternative models, testing methods, and uphold when examining several relevant subcomponents of the index, such as internal conflict, violent crime, homicides, ease of access to small arms, and political instability. Surprisingly, democracy tends not to be associated with peace but associates with increased criminality whereas strong autocracy reduces it, suggesting that capitalism, more than democracy, associates with conditions favourable to societal security, independently of a country’s level of development.     

基于预防性维修工作组合的维修等级优化研究

针对单部件的维修间隔期无法反映系统的维修最佳间隔期这一问题,对装备各部件在各修理级别上的预防性维修任务组合情况进行了探索。通过建立费用模型作为决策模型,用以组合某一修理级别各部件的维修工作,得出系统预防性维修间隔期,并结合部队实际从系统的角度优化等级维修中的维修工作间隔期,为确定大、中、小修工作提供科学、合理的理论指导。该算法在区分各修理级别的维修能力的基础上,能较好地对各修理级别的维修工作组合情况进行了优化。实例验证了模型的实用性和有效性。     

基于贝叶斯混合博弈的空袭火力资源分配决策模型

从博弈论的角度出发研究空袭火力资源的分配问题,针对空袭编队和防空火力单元攻防对抗过程中存在的不确定性、静态性以及动态性,建立基于贝叶斯混合博弈的空袭对抗火力分配模型。通过构造贝叶斯混合博弈树,采用逆向回溯法分别建立不同的博弈分析模型,利用混合粒子群算法求解那什均衡。仿真结果表明:以博弈论为背景研究空袭作战火力分配问题,符合真实的作战坏境,有效性好,有较高的理论应用价值。     

Forces of heresy versus forces of conservation: making sense of Hezb-e Islami-ye Afghanistan’s and the Taleban’s positions in the Afghan insurgency

Ethnicity and ideology are frequently used to determine whether an armed group is hostile or friendly vis-à-vis the state. By contrast, I argue that the social structure of insurgent movements holds more explanatory power for their respective positions than ethnicity or ideology. To illustrate this, I apply Pierre Bourdieu’s concept of a contest between forces of ‘conservation’ and forces of ‘heresy’ to the current Afghanistan war. I demonstrate that the social structure of the Taleban renders them prone to ‘heresy’, while the formerly second biggest insurgent group, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s party, has rather been an impeded force of ‘conservation.’     

基于微裂纹模型的材料可靠性预计

讨论了微裂纹的某些不同于大型裂纹的增长特性,提出了一种微裂纹在某种材料上的多级扩展模型,利用微裂纹的增长数据来预计材料的可靠性。     

POOR PERFORMERS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

World political events since 9/11 have refocused attention in the development, foreign and security policy spheres on ‘poor performing’ countries, owing to the possible threat that some countries pose to the international community. These countries, referred to by the World Bank as low-income countries under stress (LICUS), are both countries that lack a certain minimum of effective governmental authority and countries that have sufficient effective governmental authority but fail to use it for purposes of development. There is a pronounced global interest in integrating poor performers into the world community and its structures. The stress here is on using development co-operation and to identify meaningful points of departure for co-operation with poor performers.     

Smart Power and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces

Abstract

From Iraq to the Gulf of Aden and the South Pacific, this paper evaluates how far theoretical ideas about smart power manifest in operational missions of the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF). To function within a ‘smart’ power context, this paper suggests that JSDF operates in ‘assisting’ mode, rather than the ‘threatening’ behavior of ‘hard’ power. JSDF also deployed alongside other Japanese ‘soft’ power tools – diplomatic, cultural, developmental, and NGOs, using tailored programs for different cultural and geographical contexts. Given constitutional constraints and public sensitivity towards coercive force, JSDF missions could be integrated more into a ‘whole-of-government’ approach advancing foreign policy goals through ‘smart power’.     

Conceptual failure,the Taliban's parallel hierarchies,and America's strategic defeat in Afghanistan

ISAF exists to protect the Afghan constitutional model. This strategic objective will be defeated because the GIRoA model has a conceptual flaw that renders it incapable of delivering governance at the local level (Tier IV). This fatal flaw has enabled the Taliban, by developing parallel hierarchies, to displace GIRoA and establish itself in southern locales as the political authority. The Taliban are fighting a revolutionary war, a Maoist displacement strategy that uses guerrilla tactics to advance a political program. Petraeus and McChrystal failed to recognize the character of war, and believed the Taliban are pursuing an exhaustion strategy. They failed to devise a counter-RW strategy. The ‘Surge’ was doomed ab initio.     

网络中心战的网络攻击——Suter计划

Suter计划是网络中心战的组成部分,它的最终目标是发展美国空军的网络攻击系统.从网络中心站的角度介绍了Suter计划的背景、发展历程以及在实战中的应用,分析了Surer计划的重要组成部分NCCT(network centric collaborative targeting)系统,提出了3种可能实现Suter能力的网络攻击技术.     

The Freudian trap in combat motivation theory

Theories of group, and individual, motivation to fight have shown little real advancement since World War II. The lively debate between the proponents of ‘primary group’ and ideological theories has tended to preclude any other analysis. The debate has continued to generalise from the experience of the Wehrmacht and its cohesion in the face of appalling destruction. In this article I suggest that the theoretical underpinnings of the debate have revolved around one particular, and somewhat unrecognised, concept of the mind. Work on combat motivation owes a substantial debt to Freudian ideas concerning the unconscious and group psychology. Both sides of the ideology/primary group debate use Freudian ideas, often without realising it, and these concepts shape the various positions taken. Only by acknowledging and examining this underpinning can the debate move forward and produce a more general theory of combat motivation and group conflict with wider application.