A Quarter Century of ‘Transitory Power-Sharing’. Lebanon’s Unfulfilled Ta’if Agreement of 1989 Revisited

Most countries of the Arab Mashrek are multi-ethnic and multi-sectarian. In recent years, most of them have experienced violent clashes between groups that frame their conflicts along ethnic-sectarian lines. This article investigates the Lebanese Ta’if Agreement of 1989 as a crucial case study of how to manage such conflicts through a transitory power-sharing arrangement. It presents several provisions of this agreement that adhere to three different approaches of how to deal with such conflicts: the consociational and the centripetal models of power-sharing as well as the integrationist paradigm. It thereby seeks to develop a theoretical argument about chances and risks of transitory power-sharing in deeply divided societies and derives some general lessons for managing conflicts in the Middle East.     

Pathways from Power-sharing

Abstract

This article focuses on power-sharing’s ‘exit dilemma’. While power-sharing may be a necessary transitional device to manage deep divisions, it also allegedly obstructs the long-term goals of peacebuilding and democratisation in divided societies. Three countervailing perspectives are considered here: (1) power-sharing is a transitional device unable to transition to more ‘normal’ political arrangements, creating instability; (2) power-sharing is a transitional device that can be designed for stability and adaptability; and (3) power-sharing is a lasting institutional fixture that facilitates peace and democratisation. The article presents a typology of pathways from power-sharing, arguing that the exit dilemma is real but not insurmountable.     

The Illusion of ‘Peace Through Power-Sharing’: Constitutional Choice in the Shadow of Civil War

Conflict managers around the world cling to the hope that power-sharing decreases the risk of civil war in post-conflict societies. Distinguishing between territorial and governmental conflicts, we analyse the origin and effectiveness of power-sharing institutions (PSI) and power-sharing arrangements (PSA). Our examination reveals that power-sharing is largely a consequence of the institutional legacy and of the war outcome. While PSI such as proportional representation or federalism cannot prevent a war from recurring, PSA in the form of grand coalitions reduces this risk marginally. However, granting autonomy to a rebellious region increases the danger that the relationship with the government turns violent again. Our results suggest that constitution makers should advocate power-sharing with caution.     

The viability of civil war peace agreements

Civil war peace agreements are prone to collapse. While some research suggests that multiple layers of power-sharing provisions lead to more viable agreements, others have suggested that negotiated settlements are not only more likely to return to violence, but that those cases will be more deadly as a result. We suggest here that previous research has failed to address the various ways that peace agreements emerge and that this context is crucial in explaining peace agreement viability. In some situations, rebels are likely to earn those concessions through battlefield success. Governments may feel compelled to address underlying grievances in order to stop the bloodshed and ultimately maintain some political clout in the postwar regime. In other cases, however, governments may feel pressure to engage in discussions and to provide concessions by outside actors, whether in the form of diplomatic intervention, economic, or foreign military intervention. Hypotheses are tested on all civil war peace agreements identified by the UCDP Peace Agreement Data-set for 1975–2011. Findings from logit and hazard models suggest that agreements brought about in the aftermath of military intervention on behalf of rebels are more likely to endure while those earned on the battlefield (i.e., stronger rebels) do not. In addition, mediation enhances peace agreement viability, while interventions on behalf of governments tend to undermine it.     

Power-Sharing in Civil War: Puzzles of Peacemaking and Peacebuilding

Syria's slide into sectarian civil war in 2011 raises a new fundamental knowledge question about the conditions under which power-sharing pacts can be clinched as an approach to war termination. When intrastate conflicts escalate into violent sectarian struggles, power-sharing is a likely basis of an eventual political settlement in situations where partition is off the table. This article contends that there remain two puzzling knowledge gaps about power-sharing as the basis for peace agreements to end civil wars: first, the specific conditions under which elites find it in their own interest to share power with bitter adversaries rather than fight on the battlefield, and second, how war-ending elite-negotiated pacts may evolve into more enduring social contracts. These puzzles, critical for policymakers and still unresolved in the scholarly literature, suggest the need to develop more contingent- and context-specific knowledge if research findings are to more capably contribute to peacemaking efforts.     

Power-sharing,commitment problems,and armed conflict in Ukraine

Why did the Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution initiate a peaceful democratic transition, while the 2014 protests were followed by violent conflict? This article complements previous studies on Russia’s role in Ukraine by focusing on domestic explanations of the recent violence. It shows that structural factors were already conducive to violence in 2004, making it fruitful to analyse the role of agency to explain the 2014 conflict. It demonstrates that while the 2004 transition introduced power-sharing guarantees that mitigated commitment problems for the relevant parties, the 2014 transition saw no such guarantees, making violence a rational strategy for the pro-Russian separatists.     

刑法罪名“口袋化”倾向之反思

我国刑法中的一些罪名在司法认定过程中,日益具有＂口袋化＂的倾向。这一倾向与罪刑法定原则、尊重保障人权的基本理念相冲突。这一倾向产生的原因主要有：部分刑法条文的规定不够明确;司法工作人员对于犯罪构成要件以及刑法基本理论的理解存在偏差;以社会危害性为中心的传统刑法观的影响;个别司法解释有违刑法的基本规定和基本原理等。应结合这一倾向产生的原因,通过各种途径对其加以遏制。     

论消防行政调查之完善

消防行政调查作为行政调查的典型,涵盖了主要的调查类型。其贯穿消防行政执法的始终,直接影响行政相对人的权利和义务。我国消防行政调查法制框架已具雏形,但存在着重程序规制轻实际效果、重权力授予轻权利保障等问题。从当前的法律规定入手,具体分析问题,以图完善消防行政调查。     

Principal-agent maintenance problem

This article studies a maintenance problem that is applicable for multidivision organizations on lessee-lessor relationships. It is assumed that the parties sign a contract for a fixed time period. Within the period, the lessor is allowed to use the equipment supplied by the lessee. The availability of the equipment that may suffer from breakdown depends on the preventive maintenance policy adopted by the lessor. The properties of this policy as well as other features of the problem are analyzed using a one-period model that takes into account the economic value of the contract as perceived by the lessor and the lessee. The optimal contracting arrangements are analyzed from the perspective of efficient risk sharing and incentive provisions.     

论高校学报“作者”和“参考文献”标注的规范化

我国的各种期刊杂志都在倡导各种规范的国际接轨。无论自然版（理工科）还是哲学与社会科学版（文科）学报研究会,都出台了相关规定。但是,我国高校学报编排规范化的问题却依然明显地存在着。其中,“作者”和“参考文献”标注问题更为突出。既然是规范,就必须在充分讨论的基础上整齐划一。     

我国刑事证人保护制度的立法完善

在现代刑事诉讼中,证人出庭作证是诉讼的直接言词原则和控辩对抗原则的典型体现,但实践中证人出庭作证的比率极低。我国法律虽然规定了对举报人、证人权利的保护,但操作性严重缺失,实践效果堪忧。应当借鉴域外刑事证人保护制度,结合我国国情,合理构建与现代刑事诉讼机制相适应的证人权利保护体系。     

谈我国地方行政机关的军事行政立法权

在我国,对于地方行政机关是否享有“军事行政立法权”,相关法律中没有作出直接的明确规定,因此学术界还存在着不同的观点。应当承认我国地方行政机关享有国防军事职权,可以制定有关国防军事事项的地方性行政规章。但是,承认地方行政机关享有军事行政立法权与允许其通过立法直接对当地驻军和现役军人作出规范性要求是两个不同的问题。承认前者并不意味着就肯定了后者。要避免地方行政机关的军事立法对军队的集中统一领导带来负面影响,就应当对其加以适当的限制。     

论对“网吧”特殊社群之禁止和限制

“网吧”中未成年人群体形成特殊社群,我们应尊重其成员的基本权利．满足其自我实现的要求。当出于公共利益对其成员基本权利进行限制时,应首先排除“社群”利益与公共利益的一致之处,并针对冲突点采取符合比例原则的限制措施．保护“社群”存在的正效应,抑制反效应,避免相对的限制变质为绝对的侵犯。     

浅论军事行政法从严原则

军事行政法从严原则应当成为军事行政法的一项基本原则。其基本涵义是军事行政法的制定具有严密性 ,军事行政法的实施具有严格性 ,军事行政法律制裁具有严厉性。该原则是军队质量建设的规律之一 ,是维护国防利益和军事利益的内在要求。军事行政法中的很多具体规定均体现了该原则     

基层部队财务管理存在问题及对策

基层部队在财务管理当中存在诸多与现行规定不相适应的问题,要提出具体解决措施,以提高基层部队财务管理水平。     

对高规有关高层建筑灭火问题的辨析

针对高层建筑火灾的经验教训,就《高层民用建筑设计防火规范》有关高层建筑灭火问题进行辨析,提出修改或增加相关条文的建议,以期在灭火实践中真正实现＂以固为主、固移结合＂的灭火战术原则。     

电气配电线路敷设的防火设计

电气线路火灾危险性较大,而在工程实际应用中对电气配电线路的敷设防火设计和管理往往被忽略,根据相关规范标准的规定和不同提法,结合工作经验,提出电气配电线路敷的设防火设计的合理化实施意见。     

《人民武装警察法》中“协助”之分析

在最新颁布实施的《中华人民共和国人民武装警察法》中,共有3条6处规定了武警部队在执行国内安全保卫任务时对其他机关的“协助”,但是这些协助性任务的性质并不是很明确。本文通过对行政协助构成关键点的剖析,探究该法律中的“协助”是否是真正意义上的行政协助。     

浅谈《人民武装警察法》的颁布对武警部队执勤、处突工作的积极影响

武警部队肩负着维护国家安全和社会稳定的神圣使命。《人民武装警察法》的颁布为武警部队履行使命提供了强有力的法律保障的同时,也对武警部队的建设提出了更高的要求。从《人民武装警察法》的若干条款和武警部队现行的相关规定为基点,探讨了此法对武警部队执勤、处突工作的积极影响。     

人民武装警察的职务防卫权探析

《中华人民共和国人民武装警察法》（以下简称《人民武装警察法》）的有关规定实质上赋予了人民武装警察的职务防卫权。人民武装警察的职务防卫权与一般公民的正当防卫权在防卫的性质、手段、强度、程序和法律责任上有着很大的不同,人民武装警察的职务防卫权是一种公权力。人民武装警察在行使职务防卫权时要注意把握时机条件和限度条件。