一类搜索型多对二随机格斗的获胜概率

研究搜索型多对二随机格斗战斗模型。假设格斗开始时A方有m件武器,B方有2件武器,B方处于隐蔽状态,格斗开始后B方可以直接对A方进行射击,A方需先搜索到B方后才能进行射击。双方各为同类武器,都是集火射击,所有开火都是独立的,每件武器开火射击直到毁伤对方才重新射击下一个目标。对搜索时间和毁伤间隔时间都服从一般分布的随机格斗模型,通过分析各状态的特征,利用状态概率分析方法和向后递归时间方法建立状态方程,求出了格斗处在各个状态的概率,并得到双方的获胜概率计算公式。     

一类三对二随机格斗的获胜概率

随机格斗从一对一格斗模型出发,逐步向更多数量的格斗发展,研究三对二随机格斗战斗模型,假设格斗开始时A方有三件武器,B方有两件武器,所有开火都是独立的,利用状态概率分析方法和向后递归方法,给出了集火射击情况下双方获胜概率的计算公式,该公式适用于一般分布,公式中主要包括毁伤时间的密度函数和余分布函数,并对射击间隔时间服从负指数分布的情形进行了模拟分析。     

坦克分队遭遇战斗火力运用研究

根据遭遇战斗的特点,运用随机格斗、微分对策数理战术模型,研究坦克分队遭遇战斗最优火力运用策略问题.研究得出的结论符合坦克分队战术特点,为坦克分队指挥决策提供辅助作用.     

一种求解武器-目标分配问题的启发式方法

武器-目标分配问题是一种NP问题。结合武器-目标分配问题的特点,提出了一种求解武器-目标分配问题的启发式方法。首先给定问题的初始解作为当前最优解,然后采用多点调整方法在当前最优解的邻域内搜索最优解,其后采用重复迭代策略逐步改进初始解,直到得到较好的近似解。实验研究发现,多点调整方法只是一种局部优化方法,由不同初始解出发获得的近似解对应目标值可能不同。把多起点策略、多点调整方法和重复迭代搜索策略相结合,可得到求解武器-目标分配问题的一种有效方法。实验结果表明,提出的启发式方法计算所得解的质量较高,是求解武器-目标分配问题的一种有效方法。     

基于Monte Carlo方法的一对二马尔可夫随机格斗模型

讨论了一对二马尔可夫随机格斗双方获胜概率计算问题。提出了一种新颖的一对二马尔可夫随机格斗任意对抗回合双方获胜概率的计算方法,该方法首先基于Monte Carlo仿真计算各个对抗回合中双方发射次序的概率分布,再利用全概率公式确定马尔可夫链的状态转移概率矩阵,从而克服了马尔可夫随机格斗模型往往只能提供无限对抗回合之后格斗双方获胜概率的缺点,为运用马尔可夫随机格斗研究火力运用和弹药分配提供了新途径,并用实例说明了该方法的有效性。     

舰空导弹与火炮武器协同抗击多目标的效能评估

为使水面舰艇防空导弹与火炮武器有效协同使用,提高抗击空袭多目标的作战效能,在分析防空导弹和近防炮武器发射区的基础上,通过研究防空导弹多个射击通道的射击次数、火炮武器的射击方式和射击次数等,建立了协同抗击多目标的效能评估模型,并运用该模型对确定最优火力分配方案的使用方法进行了举例分析,验证了模型的可用性.     

基于马尔可夫过程的坦克火力随机对抗模型

根据小规模坦克火力对抗中所具有的马尔可夫性特点,将该过程视为离散状态、离散时间的马尔可夫随机过程(马尔可夫链),由此建立了坦克与反坦克武器系统之间一对一对抗的随机格斗模型,并给出双方获胜概率和平均对抗回合数的计算公式。最后通过实例验证了模型的有效性。该模型克服了轮流对抗不符合战场实际的缺点,为分队指挥员在射击策略的选择和分队火力运用上的快速决策提供了较为精确的量化依据。     

未来空战中的近距格斗

近距格斗是空战双方在视距范围通过急剧机动,使用格斗导弹和航炮攻击目标的一种空战样式。随着一大批采用隐身、精确制导等高新技术的新一代作战飞机陆续投入使用,有人认为,近距格斗将退出空战舞台。但大量的理论研究和空战实践表明,未来空战中,近距格斗不仅将与超视距空战并存,而且会表现得更为复杂,更为激烈。近距格斗依然是未来空战的重要样式机载雷达和中远距空空导弹性能的提高,使新一代作战飞机具有很强的超     

改进蛙跳算法求解武器目标分配问题

针对武器目标分配问题,提出一种改进蛙跳算法来求解空间受限的武器目标分配。首先,基于武器目标分配原则建立多约束条件下武器目标分配模型,并将多目标优化问题转化为单目标优化问题;其次,采用基于非支配等级和拥挤度因子的精英选择策略改进初始种群的多样性和均匀度,提升算法最优解的质量;最后,通过合理的想定背景进行仿真计算,结果表明：该方法可有效平衡搜索时间和全局最优解质量,可作为编队防空作战时武器目标分配的一个不错选择,通过与SFLA算法和遗传算法进行比对分析,表明该算法相对SFLA算法求解的最优解质量高,相对遗传算法搜索效率高。     

岸基防空兵对高强度攻击目标火力运用

根据航空兵在现代战斗中通常采用的多批次、小间隔连续攻击等高强度攻击的手段,提出了一种岸基防空兵火力运用的"射击强度函数",应用排队论和优化理论,结合防空兵战术运用原则,求取"函数"中的最优参数,从而得到对此类型攻击目标的火力运用方法,可用于指导岸基防空兵部队的作战与训练。     

New results on a stochastic duel game with each force consisting of heterogeneous units

Two forces engage in a duel, with each force initially consisting of several heterogeneous units. Each unit can be assigned to fire at any opposing unit, but the kill rate depends on the assignment. As the duel proceeds, each force—knowing which units are still alive in real time—decides dynamically how to assign its fire, in order to maximize the probability of wiping out the opposing force before getting wiped out. It has been shown in the literature that an optimal pure strategy exists for this two‐person zero‐sum game, but computing the optimal strategy remained cumbersome because of the game's huge payoff matrix. This article gives an iterative algorithm to compute the optimal strategy without having to enumerate the entire payoff matrix, and offers some insights into the special case, where one force has only one unit. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 56–65, 2014     

A many-on-many stochastic duel model for a mountain battle

Terrain plays a major role in mountain battle. The advancing (attacking) force is usually restricted to move in a single column—along a narrow, winding, and steep road. The defending force, on the other hand, which is static, can select its positions such that most of its firepower can be effective against the front unit(s) of the attacking force. This combat situation is modeled as a special type of the many-on-many stochastic duel. This duel is a series of many-on-one subduels where at each such subduel the defending force units simultaneously engage the single exposed front unit of the attacking force. This special type of many-on-many stochastic duel demonstrates the possibility of practical applications of stochastic duel theory.     

A two-on-one stochastic duel with maneuvering and fire allocation tactics

The large body of work on stochastic duels represents an attempt to model combat situations, or parts of it, by means of formal probability models. Most, but not all, of the existing stochastic duel models, however, relate to static posture and fail to capture dynamic aspects as well as tactical considerations that may be present. In this article we propose a simple model of a two-on-one duel in which dynamic and tactical aspects are considered. The model represents a combat situation that is typical of a battle in which a maneuvering force attacks a smaller defending unit that is static.     

The many-on-one stochastic duel

The general many-on-one stochastic duel conditioned on the order in which targets are attacked is investigated, and the state probabilities are derived for the first time. The results are illustrated by an example of a three-on-one stochastic duel with negative exponential interfiring times. Some aspects of the tradeoff between individual firepower and the nominal size of a force are investigated.     

The two-on-one stochastic duel

The one-on-one stochastic duel is extended to the general two-on-one duel for the first time. The state equations, win probabilities, mean value, and variance functions are derived. The case where one side has Erlang (2) firing times and the other is negative exponential is compared with the corresponding “Stochastic Lanchester” and Lanchester models to demonstrate their nonequivalence.     

Stochastic duels involving reliability

The reliability of weapons in combat has been treated by Bhashyam in the context of a stochastic duel characterized by fixed ammunition supplies. negative exponentially distributed firing times and weapon lifetimes, and a fixed number of spare weapons for each duelist. The present paper takes a different approach by starting with the fundamental duel of Ancker and Williams, characterized by unlimited ammunition and by ordinary renewal firing times, and adding to it weapon lifetimes which can be functions of time or of round position in the firing sequence. Probabilities of winning and tieing are derived and it is shown that under certain conditions the weapon lifetimes are equivalent to random time and ammunition limits.     

The stochastic duel with time-dependent hit probabilities

The fundamental stochastic duel considers two opponents who fire at each other at either random continuous or fixed-time intervals with a constant hit probability on each round fired. Each starts with an unloaded weapon, unlimited ammunition, and unlimited time. The first to hit wins. In this article we extend the theory to the case where hit probabilities are functions of the time since the duel began. First, the marksman firing at a passive target is considered and the characteristic function of the time to a hit is developed. Then, the probability of a given side winning the duel is derived. General solutions for a wide class of hit probability functions are derived. Specific examples of both the marksman and the duel problem are given.     

Stochastic duels with nonrepairable weapons

This paper examines the effect of limitation, regarding weapons that are likely to fail during the period of deployment, on the final outcome in a stochastic duel model. Inter-firing times as well as inter-failure times have been assumed to be exponentially distributed.     

Maximization of long-run average rate-of-return by stochastic approximation

Suppose that an individual has a surplus stock of wealth and a fixed set of risky investment opportunities over a sequence of time periods. Assuming the criterion of maximal long-run average rate-of-return, the individual may select portfolios sequentially via a modified stochastic approximation procedure. This approach yields optimal asymptotic investment results under minimal assumptions.