无人机协同空战中的目标威胁评估和目标分配算法

为适应变化的战场态势,研究了多无人机协同空战中的目标威胁评估算法和目标分配算法.利用一种新的计算方法对目标威胁矩阵进行确定,从而针对不同的空战态势进行威胁评估,以提高威胁评估的性能.利用所得到的威胁评估结果,采用基于态势的目标分配方法实现目标分配.所研究的目标分配算法不仅考虑敌机对我方威胁,同时还考虑了敌机的作战意图,使得我方能够实时准确的对敌做出目标分配.仿真结果表明所研究的算法能够完成多机空战中的目标威胁评估和目标分配,所研究的算法是有效的.     

无人机协同空战中的目标威胁评估和目标分配算法

为适应变化的战场态势,研究了多无人机协同空战中的目标威胁评估算法和目标分配算法.利用一种新的计算方法对目标威胁矩阵进行确定,从而针对不同的空战态势进行威胁评估,以提高威胁评估的性能.利用所得到的威胁评估结果,采用基于态势的目标分配方法实现目标分配.所研究的目标分配算法不仅考虑敌机对我方威胁,同时还考虑了敌机的作战意图,使得我方能够实时准确地对敌做出目标分配.仿真结果表明所研究的算法能够完成多机空战中的目标威胁评估和目标分配,所研究的算法是有效的.     

基于并列选择遗传算法的舰艇编队目标分配问题

为了更好地解决舰艇编队火力最优分配问题,建立了新的舰艇编队武器分配模型,采用并列选择遗传算法实现舰艇编队武器分配问题的求解。解决了以往将武器分配问题抽象为单目标优化的局限性,在保证尽可能发挥我方火力优势使打击效果尽可能好的前提下,使敌方对我方的威胁最小。并列选择遗传算法简单,鲁棒性好,具有较强的全局搜索能力,可以实现对多目标的搜索,从而较好地解决了舰艇编队武器分配问题。最后,通过仿真验证了算法的有效性。     

合成分队双层主从决策模型研究

针对合成分队不同指挥层级之间的决策交互优化问题,提出了基于主从决策的双层武器目标分配模型。该模型能够体现上下指挥层级之间交互式决策协调优化的特点:上层目标为主攻方向我方遭受威胁最小,下层目标为对敌打击最大。结合合成分队作战决策的特点和要求,提出了一种求解该模型的改进型粒子群优化算法。仿真结果表明,该模型合理有效,改进的求解算法能够获得满意解。     

贫信息下空袭兵器威胁能力评估方法

现代防空作战中,各种空袭兵器突袭能力不断增强,对我方目标构成了极大威胁.因此,需要对空袭兵器的威胁能力进行评估,合理分配各种防空火力,以达到保护我方目标的目的.研究了现代防空作战背景下,空袭兵器威胁能力评估的全过程,给出了贫信息下,威胁能力评估的算法,建立了数学模型,最后用实例说明了该评估方法的实用性.     

意图驱动的防空武器-目标动态分配方法

武器-目标分配是防空作战指挥决策的重要内容之一,针对此问题大多数的研究都过多考虑己方的态势和有限的目标信息,对敌方目标意图的认知鲜有涉及,结合空中目标作战意图,提出一种意图驱动的防空动态武器-目标分配方法。考虑到敌机的行为对我方决策产生的影响,对采集到的敌机群数据,将专家经验封装为标签,训练融合注意力机制的双向长短期记忆网络（BiLSTM-attention）进行意图识别,根据敌方不同作战飞机的意图,以及敌机的被动属性、我方武器属性、战场环境信息和实时动态信息,提出了意图驱动的武器-目标分配模型（intent-WTA）,使用费用流算法在较短的时间内准确获得最优的武器-目标分配策略,实验仿真结果表明,所提方法可以准确、高效地根据战场局势的动态变化进行武器-目标分配,满足防空作战的实战要求。     

战区导弹防御(TMD)作战管理系统

战区导弹防御(TMD)的一个重要目的,是在同时受到多枚弹道导弹威胁时,能对散布在全战区中的若干设施进行有效的保护.因此,作战管理系统必须有效的为逼近的威胁分配武器和传感器,实现总漏出量或设施损失最小的拦截.为了分析TMD作战管理系统对抗战区弹道导弹(TBM)的问题,开发了威胁传播和雷达模型来预测天线占用率和航迹精度,并且建立了拦截器飞出(flyouts)模型,以支持备用的一对一火控方案.此外,还开发了各种算法,它们是威胁评估算法,战斗空间-时间分析算法,多对多武器-目标-传感器分配算法和作战调度算法.其中,战斗空间-时间分析算法,确定满足系统约束的射击时矶;多对多武器-目标-传感器分配算法,优化目标函数;作战调度算法确定最佳的拦截位置和时间.这些模型被制成初样,集成,并在一台快速样机试验台上进行模拟.模拟了许多攻击和防御想定,并且确定了妙能的各种衡量标准,包括威胁的漏出,设施的损失,中间结果的精度和计算能力.这些结果显示了在系统的约束下武器效能的灵敏度.某些重要性能特征用图表演示出来.     

基于改进NSGA-III算法的动态武器协同火力分配方法

针对防御场景下的动态武器协同火力分配问题,将其转化为多目标约束组合优化问题,在考虑资源约束、可行性约束的前提下,以我方损失最小、消耗资源最小为原则,对敌方目标造成最大的伤害.基于此,在NSGA-III算法的基础上提出基于A-NSGA-GKM算法的动态武器协同火力分配方法,通过遗传K均值聚类算法对初始参考点进行自动分组聚类,用聚类中心代替原参考点,引入基于惩罚的边界相交聚合函数代替原垂直距离,进一步提升原始算法的收敛性能,引入自适应机制保证优秀的解结构.最后,通过实验仿真表明所提优化算法具有较高的收敛性,该方法能够有效地解决动态武器协同火力分配优化问题.     

机载制导武器的武器-目标分配算法研究

机载制导武器的武器-目标分配算法是智能航空指控系统的一个基础研究问题。本文在建立了武器-目标分配的基本概念和对算法要求的基础上,提出了两种武器-目标分配算法;基于决策论的武器-目标分配算法和基于导弹截获区的武器-目标分配算法,并对基于导弹截获区的武器-目标分配算法进行了仿真实验。结果表明,此算法具有高透明性、有限消除最大威肋、杀伤概率最大、充分利用机载武器等特点。     

基于带精英策略遗传算法的舰艇编队目标分配

结合现代海战海军编队作战样式及作战武器的特点,建立了新的舰艇编队武器分配模型,将舰艇编队目标分配问题抽象化为多目标优化问题,该模型可以在保证我方重点目标得到保护的前提下,达到总体效果最优和总体耗损最小。采用带精英策略的快速非支配进化算法对舰艇编队目标分配问题进行求解。该算法求得的Pareto最优解分布均匀,收敛性和鲁棒性好。该算法一次运行可以获得多个Pareto最优解,决策者可以根据实际战场环境选择最终满意解,为各目标函数之间的均衡分析提供了有效的工具。最后,通过仿真及与其他算法的对比证明了模型及算法的有效性。     

区域防入侵中振动目标威胁评估研究

在分析地振动目标信号特征的基础上,提出了振动目标的威胁属性参数;建立了目标威胁隶属度函数和威胁等级判决模型;运用层次分析法确定了各目标威胁参数的权值,构建了振动目标的威胁评估函数,并通过实例验证了评估结果的合理性和实用性。     

防空系统中空中目标威胁评估方法研究

针对当前对空中目标威胁评估研究的不足,提出了一种防空系统中评估目标威胁度的新方法,其思想在于将空中目标的威胁因子分为定量指标和定性指标,其中定量指标包括目标速度、目标高度等可以直接获取的指标,该部分指标通过隶属函数直接得到威胁值;定性指标包括目标类型、目标意图等不能直接获取的指标,通过贝叶斯网络进行推理以得到静态威胁值。最后通过AHP 方法对各个指标威胁值进行加权得到总威胁值。该方法的特点在于定性分析与定量分析的结合,通过仿真算例验证了该方法的有效性与可行性。     

基于目标威胁规则的雷达情报按需分发

针对预警监视网络中信息过载的问题,为了提高情报分发的效率,提出了基于目标威胁规则的情报按需分发方法。依据目标特征以及保卫对象,利用模糊综合决策和层次分析法估计目标威胁值,在此基础上,通过设定阈值过滤,并与用户作战需求模型动态匹配,最终将所得到的目标情报信息分发给特定情报用户。仿真表明,该方法能够有效地实现情报的按需分发。     

Transit vessel scheduling

A transit vessel traffic scheduling algorithm has been developed to limit the negative effects on cargo volume throughput in two‐way waterways where separation distances between transiting vessels must be maintained and passage restrictions may hold. It runs in time that is polynomial in the number of ships involved in the computation and finds schedules which increase the utilization of waterways. Three examples illustrate its use. The first example is situated in the Sunda Strait where the algorithm is used to enhance the safety of merchant shipping against a terrorist threat. It illustrates important features of the algorithm and demonstrates how it can be used with cross traffic. The second example is situated in the Strait of Istanbul and offers a comparison between the developed algorithm and the transit vessel scheduling algorithm of Ulusçu et al., J Navig 62 (2009), 59–77. This was done using a plausible model of the Strait of Istanbul. The third and last example shows how the algorithm can be used to schedule transit vessel traffic in two‐way waterways with junctions. This feature is especially useful in congested waters with a high risk of collisions like the Inland Sea of Japan. An extreme test case proves that the developed algorithm is a practical algorithm ready for such use. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 225–248, 2017     

A NEW STANDARD FOR PREEMPTIVE MILITARY ACTION AGAINST WMD THREATS

International law clearly requires an imminent threat of attack as a justification for the preemptive use of military force. However, the standard definition of an imminent threat was derived centuries before the development of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons or ballistic missiles and other delivery systems that can reach their targets in a matter of minutes. Any use of force to alleviate threats posed by weapons of mass destruction (WMD) prior to tactical warning of the actual launch of such weapons falls into the legally and ethically controversial category of “anticipatory self-defense,” leaving decision makers potentially liable to prosecution for war crimes. Effective and ethical enforcement of nonproliferation therefore demands a standard for imminence of threat broad enough to allow military action as a last resort but sufficiently restrictive to prohibit indiscriminate action against suspected WMD programs. Following a critical review of selected literature and cases on preemption, the author proposes a new standard for preemptive military action: the existence of operational WMD, or a clandestine program to develop WMD, in contravention of international law. The author discusses the implications of this new proposed standard, which at the time of writing would permit preemptive attack against WMD-armed terrorist groups but prohibit it against all states except Iran and possibly North Korea.     

基于概率神经网络的编队协同防空威胁评估

为了有效地进行防空作战部署,确保重点目标不受或少受损失,以防空作战实际需要为出发点,针对目前多平台协同防空作战中目标威胁评估问题普遍存在的不足,从舰艇编队的整体角度出发,运用概率神经网络的方法,建立了编队协同防空目标威胁评估问题的数学模型,给指挥员提供了正确决策。通过实例验证,证明了该模型的有效性和正确性。     

基于不确定语言多属性决策的目标威胁度排序

针对影响不同类目标威胁度的因素建立了目标威胁度指标体系,并在此基础上,利用不确定语言多属性决策模型对不同类目标威胁度进行排序。该方法不仅充分体现了不同类目标威胁度的影响因素,还充分利用了专家和决策人员的经验,能较好地反映现代战场中目标威胁度的实际情况,利于提高智能化程度;模型适应性较强,计算量小,符合军事系统实时性的特殊要求,使评估结果更具有可信性和实用性。     

Attacking the Atom: Does Bombing Nuclear Facilities Affect Proliferation?

Abstract

What are the consequences of military strikes against nuclear facilities? In particular, do they ‘work’ by delaying the target states ability to build the bomb? This article addresses these questions by conducting an analysis of 16 attacks against nuclear facilities from 1942 to 2007. We analyze strikes that occurred during peacetime and raids that took place in the context of an ongoing interstate war. The findings indicate that strikes are neither as uniformly fruitless as the skeptics would suggest, nor as productive as advocates have claimed. There is evidence that the peacetime attacks delayed the target's nuclear program, although the size of this effect is rather modest. The wartime cases were less successful, as attacks often missed their targets either due to operational failure or limited intelligence on the location of critical targets. In our concluding section we show that many of the conditions that were conducive to past success are not present in the contemporary Iran case. Overall, our findings reveal an interesting paradox. The historical cases that have successfully delayed proliferation are those when the attacking state struck well before a nuclear threat was imminent. Yet, this also happens to be when strikes are the least legitimate under international law, meaning that attacking under these conditions is most likely to elicit international censure.     

灰靶理论的空中目标威胁评估与排序

对空中目标的威胁程度进行科学的评估与排序是防空指挥的重要环节,是防空指挥员进行火力分配的主要依据,也是防空指挥自动化系统的重要功能之一.灰靶理论是处理模式序列的灰关联分析理论,其核心概念是靶心度,可以依据靶心度进行模式分级.分析了影响空中目标威胁程度的主要因素,并基于灰靶理论建立了空中目标威胁评估与排序的数学模型,提出了应用灰靶理论进行威胁评估与排序的方法,为防空指挥员进行科学决策提供了理论依据.     

New terrorist threat to India's internal security: the danger from Pakistan's “Karachi Project”

The spectacular commando-style terrorist strike on Mumbai in November 2008 exposed India's lax internal security structure. As nearly all the security apparatus broke down during the long spell of attacks, massive public outrage flared up across the country calling for a firmer government response. Shockingly, India has done little to prevent a recurrence and a new security threat faces the country every single day not merely before but even after the Mumbai attacks. In contrast, Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence and the Lashkar-e-Taiba have successfully evaded pressures from both India and the international community and continue their terror campaign against India under the “Karachi Project” with the explicit intention to unsettle South Asia. Classified documents indicated that India is at the forefront of a cataclysmic “nuclear terrorism” threat from a “combination of Pakistan-based terrorists and homegrown radicals.” This article analyses the danger posed by the Indo-Pak radical groups targeting India and India's lack of preparedness to the new security threat from the “Karachi Project.”