基于赋时Petri网的弹种发射时序优化

针对单通道多弹种的匹配发射问题展开了研究.首次提出用赋时Petri网来描述弹种匹配发射流程,通过在变迁中引入时延因素,简单而有效的描述了发射过程中资源的占用和消耗情况.建立了弹种发射时序优化模型,并利用Petri网的分析方法,得到若干发射序列,选择出满足时序逻辑关系的发射序列,从而得到最优的弹种发射控制方案.并通过具体实例予以了计算验证.此文的研究可为武器系统的单通道多弹种作战使用提供一定的理论支撑和决策参考.     

C~3I系统的决策时延分析

决策是C~3I 系统的核心问题之一。用Petri 网理论研究C~3I 系统的决策问题已取得了长足的进展。根据决策过程各阶段之所需时间具有随机性及不独立性的特点,以变迁发射时间不独立的随机Petri 网作为决策时延的建模与分析工具,并给出了这种随机Petri 网模型的一般分析方法。     

模糊神经时延 Petri 网的信息融合模型

将模糊逻辑与融合技术相结合得到了一种模糊信息融合方法,然后用时延Ｐｅｔｒｉ网对此信息融合系统建模,并给出了信息融合系统反应时间的一个计算公式。然后将人工神经网络应用到时延Ｐｅｔｒｉ网中,提出了一种多传感器信息融合的模糊神经时延Ｐｅｔｒｉ网模型。     

作战指挥工作流程建模方法

针对作战指挥工作流程的建模与仿真研究较少的现状,采用了基于高级Petri网的建模方法。首先在企业相关概念定义基础上,对建模对象———作战指挥工作流程进行了定义,简要介绍了Petri网建模方法的特点以及对基本Petri网的扩展,举例说明了4种过程机制映射到Petri网上的方法,提出结合树状组织结构图和资源管理表的方法扩展Petri网库所容量的含义及管理机制。     

基于Petri网的仿真VV&A过程建模

对基于Petri网的仿真VV&A过程建模进行了研究,首先分析了VV&A过程的组成,建立了基于Petri网的VV&A过程模型,然后分阶段对VV&A过程进行了详细建模,分别建立了需求校核,概念模型验证,数学模型校核与验证、软件模型校核与验证以及系统确认阶段的Petri网模型.通过对基于Petri网的仿真VV&A过程建模为进一步将Petri网应用于仿真VV&A的辅助管理打下了基础.     

基于广义随机Petri网GSPN的系统安全性研究

针对基于广义随机Petri网GSPN的动态系统安全性建模与分析方法进行了系统研究。基于Petri网、GSPN模型的基本原理,提出了关键状态搜索算法,并进行了安全性仿真分析.将广义随机Petri网的扩展模型应用于安全性分析领域,丰富了动态系统安全性问题的研究手段。     

HPN基于网结构的冲突关系

混合Petri网是为了解决复杂动态系统可靠性安全性分析而提出的一种Petri网扩展模型。定义混合Petri网模型的基于结构的冲突关系 ,有助于深入理解混合Petri网模型的语义 ,对其在动态系统可靠性安全性建模与分析以及模型分析求解中的应用也具有重要意义     

一种新型坦克火控系统建模方法

为全面、准确描述新型坦克火控系统逻辑层,提出了一种基于有色随机Petri网的新型坦克火控系统建模方法。首先研究了新型坦克火控系统的组成结构、信息结构与工作流程。然后对新型坦克火控系统进行了形式化的描述,并制定了其Petri网转化规则。最后建立了新型坦克火控系统的Petri网模型,并对其动态性能进行了分析。证明该方法可以有效对新型火控系统逻辑层建模。     

物元Petri网建模方法及其应用

传统Petri网理论难以处理具有多属性对象复杂离散系统的建模问题,物元Petri网结合了物元理论能够很好地解决这一问题,是值得进一步研究并应用的新的复杂离散系统建模方法。将物元Petri网定义成一个5元组,借用物元的概念定义了物元托肯,建立了物元Petri网理论的运算规则,提出了物元Petri网并发及冲突的分析方法,并给出了建模步骤。以某设备从拆卸到修复的维修过程建模为例,给出了物元Petri网理论的应用示例。示例表明了物元Petri网在具有多属性对象离散系统建模中的优势。     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

India's counter-insurgency experience: the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy

The Indian Army, a force trained primarily for conventional warfare, has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s. Despite such a long innings on a counter-insurgency mode, little attention has been accorded within military circles to doctrinal innovation for waging sub-conventional warfare in India's democratic political context. At best, the Army continues to view counter-insurgency duty as secondary to its primary duty of defending India from external conventional threats. By conceptualizing a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’, this article aims to fill this critical doctrinal gap in India's military policy. The author argues that a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’ based on democratic political culture, measured military methods, special counter-insurgency forces, local social and cultural awareness and an integrative nation-building approach will result in positive handling of India's internal security problems. The author utilizes India's counter-insurgency experiences in Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation ‘Sadhbhavana’ in Jammu and Kashmir as illustrative empirical indicants in order to validate the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.