Extensions and reductions in the von neumann model of an expanding economy

This paper introduces an extension of the v. Neumann model of an expanding economy. In addition to the conventional nonnegative input and output matrices A₁, B₁ representing technology, two matrices A₂, B₂ represent socio-political evaluations and show that there exist solutions to the 4-matrix model. The proof is based on an extension of a constructive proof given by O. Morgenstern and G. L. Thompson. It is shown that this proof is valid only under an additional assumption. The transformation of v. Neumann models (taking consumption into account) into 1 or 2 games is shown and adds an additional condition to M. Morishima's model to guarantee a solution. The equivalence of the v. Neumann model to a maximization problem under a (efficiency) constraint is presented. It is shown that E. Malinvaud's maximality and efficiency criterion - if based on the same assumptions (model) - are equivalent and specify the assumptions which will make the MT-model efficient. The economic evaluation is considered to be of utmost importance.     

The asymptotic distribution of order statistics

For each n., X₁(n), X₂(n), …, X_n(n) are IID, with common pdf f_n(x). y₁(n) < … < Y_n (n) are the ordered values of X₁ (n), …, X_n(n). K_n is a positive integer, with lim K_n = ∞. Under certain conditions on K_n and f_n (x), it was shown in an earlier paper that the joint distribution of a special set of K_n + 1 of the variables Y₁ (n), …, Y_n (n) can be assumed to be normal for all asymptotic probability calculations. In another paper, it was shown that if f_n (x) approaches the pdf which is uniform over (0, 1) at a certain rate as n increases, then the conditional distribution of the order statistics not in the special set can be assumed to be uniform for all asymptotic probability calculations. The present paper shows that even if f_n (x) does not approach the uniform distribution as n increases, the distribution of the order statistics contained between order statistics in the special set can be assumed to be the distribution of a quadratic function of uniform random variables, for all asymptotic probability calculations. Applications to statistical inference are given.     

Testing fit with nuisance location and scale parameters

For each n, X₁(n),…, X_n(n) are independent and identically distributed random variables, each with cumulative distribution function F(x) which is known to be absolutely continuous but is otherwise unknown. The problem is to test the hypothesis that \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$ F(x) = G\left( {{\textstyle{{x - \theta _1 } \over {\theta _2 }}}} \right) $\end{document}, where the cumulative distribution function G_x is completely specified and satisfies certain regularity conditions, and the parameters θ₁, θ₂ are unknown and unspecified, except that the scale parameter θ₂, is positive. Y₁ (n) ≦ Y₂ (n) ≦ … ≦ Y_n (n)are the ordered values of X₁(n),…, X_n(n). A test based on a certain subset of {Y_i(n)} is proposed, is shown to have asymptotically a normal distribution when the hypothesis is true, and is shown to be consistent against all alternatives satisfying a mild regularity condition.     

Covariance of weibull order statistics

Let X₁ < X₂ <… < X_n denote an ordered sample of size n from a Weibull population with cdf F(x) = 1 - exp (?x^p), x > 0. Formulae for computing Cov (X_i, X_j) are well known, but they are difficult to use in practice. A simple approximation to Cov(X_i, X_j) is presented here, and its accuracy is discussed.     

Characterizations of the exponential distribution by higher-order gap

Suppose X₁,X₂, ?,X_n is a random sample of size n from a continuous distribution function F(x) and let X_1,n, ≦ X_2,n ≦ ? ≦ X_n,n be the corresponding order statistics. We define the jth-order gap g_i,j as g_i,j = X_i+j,n ? X_i,n, 1 ≦ i < n, 1 ≦ j ≦ n ? i. In this article characterizations of the exponential distribution are given by considering the distributional properties of g_k,n-k, 1 ≦ k ≦ n.     

Mathematical aspects of the 3 × n job-shop sequencing problem

The paper discusses mathematical properties of the well-known Bellman-Johnson 3 × n sequencing problem. Optimal rules for some special cases are developed. For the case min B_i ≥ maxA_j we find an optimal sequence of the 2 × n problem for machines B and C and move one item to the front of the sequence to minimize (7); when min B_i ≥ max C_j we solve a 2 × n problem for machines A and B and move one item to the end of the optimal sequence so as to minimize (9). There is also given a sufficient optimality condition for a solution obtained by Johnson's approximate method. This explains why this method so often produces an optimal solution.     

Cumulative search-evasion games

Cumulative search-evasion games (CSEGs) are two-person zero-sum search-evasion games where play proceeds throughout some specified period without interim feedback to either of the two players. Each player moves according to a preselected plan. If (X_t, Y_t,) are the positions of the two players at time t, then the game's payoff is the sum over t from 1 to T of A(X_t, Y_t, t). Additionally, all paths must be “connected.” That is, the finite set of positions available for a player in any time period depends on the position selected by that player in the previous time period. One player attempts to select a mixed strategy over the feasible T-time period paths to maximize the expected payoff. The other minimizes. Two solution procedures are given. One uses the Brown-Robinson method of fictitious play and the other linear programming. An example problem is solved using both procedures.     

Estimating a survival curve when new is better than used in expectation

Let X be a positive random variable. The distribution F of X is said to be “new better than used in expectation,” or “NBUE,” if E(X) ⩾ E(X – t|X > t) for all t ⩾ 0. Suppose X₁, …, X_n, is a random sample from an NBUE distribution F. The problem of estimating F by a distribution which is itself NBUE is considered. The estimator G_n, defined as the NBUE distribution supported on the sample which minimizes the (sup norm) distance between the NBUE class and the empirical distribution function, is studied. The strong uniform consistency of G_n, is proven, and a numerical algorithm for obtaining G_n, is given. Our approach is applied to provide an estimate of the distribution of lifetime following the diagnosis of chronic granulocytic leukemia based on data from a National Cancer Institute study.     

Estimating value in a uniform auction

Consider an auction in which increasing bids are made in sequence on an object whose value θ is known to each bidder. Suppose n bids are received, and the distribution of each bid is conditionally uniform. More specifically, suppose the first bid X₁ is uniformly distributed on [0, θ], and the i^th bid is uniformly distributed on [X_i?1, θ] for i = 2, …?, n. A scenario in which this auction model is appropriate is described. We assume that the value θ is un known to the statistician and must be esimated from the sample X₁, X₂, …?, X_n. The best linear unbiased estimate of θ is derived. The invariance of the estimation problem under scale transformations in noted, and the best invariant estimation problem under scale transformations is noted, and the best invariant estimate of θ under loss L(θ, a) = [(a/θ) ? 1]² is derived. It is shown that this best invariant estimate has uniformly smaller mean-squared error than the best linear unbiased estimate, and the ratio of the mean-squared errors is estimated from simulation experiments. A Bayesian formulation of the estimation problem is also considered, and a class of Bayes estimates is explicitly derived.     

On a sequential rule for estimating the location parameter of an exponential distribution

Let us assume that observations are obtained at random and sequentially from a population with density function In this paper we consider a sequential rule for estimating μ when σ is unknown corresponding to the following class of cost functions In this paper we consider a sequential rule for estimating μ when σ is unknown corresponding to the following class of cost functions Where δ(X_I,…,X_N) is a suitable estimator of μ based on the random sample (X₁,…, X_N), N is a stopping variable, and A and p are given constants. To study the performance of the rule it is compared with corresponding “optimum fixed sample procedures” with known σ by comparing expected sample sizes and expected costs. It is shown that the rule is “asymptotically efficient” when absolute loss (p=-1) is used whereas the one based on squared error (p = 2) is not. A table is provided to show that in small samples similar conclusions are also true.     

On estimating the reliability of a component subject to several different stresses (strengths)

This paper is concerned with estimating p = P(X₁ < Y …, X_n < Y) or q =P (X < Y₁, …, X < Y_n) where the X's and Y's are all independent random variables. Applications to estimation of the reliability p from stress-strength relationships are considered where a component is subject to several stresses X₁, X₂, …, X_N whereas its strength, Y, is a single random variable. Similarly, the reliability q is of interest where a component is made of several parts all with their individual strengths Y₁, Y₂ …, Y_N and a single stress X is applied to the component. When the X's and Y's are independent and normal, maximum likelihood estimates of p and q have been obtained. For the case N = 2 and in some special cases, minimum variance unbiased estimates have been given. When the Y's are all exponential and the X is normal with known variance, but unknown mean (or uniform between 0 and θ, θ being unknown) the minimum variance unbiased estimate of q is established in this paper.     

A note on minimizing the expected makespan in flowshops subject to breakdowns

Consider a two machine flow shop and n jobs. The processing time of job j on machine i is equal to the random variable X_ij One of the two machines is subject to breakdown and repair. The objective is to find the schedule that minimizes the expected makespan. Two results are shown. First, ifP(X_2j ≧ X_1j) = 1 for all j and the random variables X₁₁, X₁₂,…, X_1n are likelihood ratio ordered, then the SEPT sequence minimizes the expected makespan when machine 2 is subject to an arbitrary breakdown process; if P(X_1j≧X_2j) = 1 and X₂₁, X₂₂,….,X_2n are likelihood ratio ordered, then the LEPT sequence minimizes the expected makespan when machine 1 is subject to an arbitrary breakdown process. A generalization is presented for flow shops with m machines. Second, consider the case where X_1j and X_2j are i.i.d. exponentially distributed with rate λ_j. The SEPT sequence minimizes the expected makespan when machine 2 is subject to an arbitrary breakdown process and the LEPT sequence is optimal when machine 1 is subject to an arbitrary breakdown process. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Johnson's approximate method for the 3 × n job shop problem

The effectiveness of Johnson's Approximate Method (JAM) for the 3 × n job shop scheduling problems was examined on 1,500 test cases with n ranging from 6 to 50 and with the processing times A_i, B_i, C_i (for item i on machines A, B, C) being uniformly and normally distributed. JAM proved to be quite effective for the case B_i ? max (A_i, C_i) and optimal for B_i, ? min (A_i, C_i).     

The NBUL class of life distribution and replacement policy comparisons

Let X and X_τ denote the lifetime and the residual life at age τ of a system, respectively. X is said to be a NBUL random variable if X_τ is smaller than X in Laplace order, i.e., X_τ ≤_L X. We obtain some characterizations for this class of life distribution by means of the lifetime of a series system and the residual life at random time. We also discuss preservation properties for this class of life distribution under shock models. Finally, under the assumption that the lifetimes have the NBUL property, we make stochastic comparisons between some basic replacement policies. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 578–591, 2001.     

Adaptive competitive decision in repeated play of a matrix game with uncertain entries

This study is concerned with a game model involving repeated play of a matrix game with unknown entries; it is a two-person, zero-sum, infinite game of perfect recall. The entries of the matrix ((pij)) are selected according to a joint probability distribution known by both players and this unknown matrix is played repeatedly. If the pure strategy pair (i, j) is employed on day k, k = 1, 2, …, the maximizing player receives a discounted income of β^{k - 1} X_ij, where β is a constant, 0 ≤ β ? 1, and X_ij assumes the value one with probability p_ij or the value zero with probability 1 - p_ij. After each trial, the players are informed of the triple (i, j, X_ij) and retain this knowledge. The payoff to the maximizing player is the expected total discounted income. It is shown that a solution exists, the value being characterized as the unique solution of a functional equation and optimal strategies consisting of locally optimal play in an auxiliary matrix determined by the past history. A definition of an ?-learning strategy pair is formulated and a theorem obtained exhibiting ?-optimal strategies which are ?-learning. The asymptotic behavior of the value is obtained as the discount tends to one.     

A note on a prediction interval for a first-order Gauss Markov process

Let X_t, t = 1,2, ?, be a stationary Gaussian Markov process with E(X_t) = μ and Cov(X_t, X_t+k) = σ²ρ^k. We derive a prediction interval for X_2n+1 based on the preceding 2n observations X₁,X₂, ?,X_2n.     

On estimating population characteristics from record-breaking observations. i. parametric results

Consider an experiment in which only record-breaking values (e.g., values smaller than all previous ones) are observed. The data available may be represented as X₁,K₁,X₂,K₂, …, where X₁,X₂, … are successive minima and K₁,K₂, … are the numbers of trials needed to obtain new records. We treat the problem of estimating the mean of an underlying exponential distribution, and we consider both fixed sample size problems and inverse sampling schemes. Under inverse sampling, we demonstrate certain global optimality properties of an estimator based on the “total time on test” statistic. Under random sampling, it is shown than an analogous estimator is consistent, but can be improved for any fixed sample size.     

Limit laws in the best of 2n - 1 bernoulli trials

A series of independent Bernoulli trials is considered in which either an outcome of type A or type B occurs at each trial. The series terminates when n outcomes of one type have occurred. Two observable random variables of interest are the total number of outcomes in the series and the number of outcomes of the “losing kind.” Two methods of approximation of the expectations of these random variables for large n are obtained and compared. The limiting distribution of the number of outcomes of the “losing kind” is considered when a beta distribution is assigned to p.     

A compound measure of dependability for systems modeled by continuous-time absorbing Markov processes

The Markov analysis of reliability models frequently involves a partitioning of the state space into two or more subsets, each corresponding to a given degree of functionality of the system. A common partitioning is G ∪ B ∪ {o}, where G (good) and B (bad) stand, respectively, for fully and partially functional sets of system states; o denotes system failure. Visits to B may correspond to, for instance, reparable system downtimes, whereas o will stand for irrecoverable system failure. Let T_G and N_B stand, respectively, for the total time spent in G, and the number of visits to B, until system failure. Both T_G and N_B are familiar system performance measures with well-known cumulative distribution functions. In this article a closed-form expression is established for the probability Pr[T_G <> t, N_B ≤ n], a dependability measure with much intuitive appeal but which hitherto seems not to have been considered in the literature. It is based on a recent result on the joint distribution of sojourn times in subsets of the state space by a Markov process. The formula is explored numerically by the example of a power transmission reliability model. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Decomposition algorithms for minimal cut problems

Consider a network G(N. A) with n nodes, where node 1 designates its source node and node n designates its sink node. The cuts (Z_i, =), i= 1…, n - 1 are called one-node cuts if 1 ? Z_i,. n q Z_i, Z₁-_? {1}, Z_i ? Z_i+1 and Z_i and Z_i+l differ by only one node. It is shown that these one-node cuts decompose G into 1 m n/2 subnetworks with known minimal cuts. Under certain circumstances, the proposed one-node decomposition can produce a minimal cut for G in 0(n² ) machine operations. It is also shown that, under certain conditions, one-node cuts produce no decomposition. An alternative procedure is also introduced to overcome this situation. It is shown that this alternative procedure has the computational complexity of 0(n³).