Evaluation of force structures under uncertainty

A model, for assessing the effectiveness of alternative force structures in an uncertain future conflict, is presented and exemplified. The methodology is appropriate to forces (e.g., the attack submarine force) where alternative unit types may be employed, albeit at differing effectiveness, in the same set of missions. Procurement trade-offs, and in particular the desirability of special purpose units in place of some (presumably more expensive) general purpose units, can be addressed by this model. Example calculations indicate an increase in the effectiveness of a force composed of general purpose units, relative to various mixed forces, with increase in the uncertainty regarding future conflicts.     

Country survey: military expenditure and defence policy in Norway 1970–2013

This article examines military expenditure and defence policy in Norway from 1970 to 2013. Until 1990 Norwegian military expenditure remained between 2.5 and 3.0 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Despite constant GDP shares, the military expenditure could not sustain a large and properly armed mobilization army. The constant nominal defence budgets of the 1990s accentuated the Norwegian Armed Forces' underlying imbalance between tasks, structure and budget. Around year 2000, large organizational reforms were effectuated, in which costs, the number of man-years, and underlying imbalances between tasks, structure and budget were reduced. Military expenditure increased in nominal terms between 2003 and 2013, while real military expenditure remained practically constant.     

ORGANIZED CRIME AND THE TRAFFICKING OF RADIOLOGICAL MATERIALS

Based on unique empirical data, including interviews with smugglers of radiological materials and the investigators who track them, this article discusses nuclear smuggling trends in the former Soviet republic of Georgia. Smuggling in Georgia mainly involves opportunist smugglers and amateurs, as opposed to professional criminals and terrorists; however, this does not mean that radiological smuggling is devoid of professionalism or organization. The article demonstrates that professional criminals are rarely involved in smuggling due to the unreliable nature of the market for radiological materials and the threat radiological smuggling could pose to professional criminals' ability to wield political power and operate legal commercial enterprises.     

Expressions for item fill rates in periodic inventory systems

We examine the problem of estimating the item fill rate in a periodic inventory system. We show that the traditional expressions for line item fill rate, found in many operations management textbooks, perform well for high fill rates (above 90%), but they consistently underestimate the true fill rate. The problem of underestimation becomes significant as the fill rate falls below 90% and is greatly amplified in cases with very low fill rates (below 50%). We review other more accurate expressions for fill rate, discussing their relative merits. We then develop an exact fill rate expression that is robust for both high and low fill rates. We compare the new expression to others found in the literature via an extensive set of simulation experiments using data that reflect actual inventory systems found at Hewlett-Packard. We also examine the robustness of the expressions to violations in the underlying assumptions. Finally, we develop an alternative fill rate expression that is robust for cases of high demand variability where product returns are allowed. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Estimation from binomial data with classifiers of known and unknown imperfections

Observations from inspection by a “test” method and a standard method are combined to provide estimators of population proportion, and of probabilities of misclassification for the test method. Results of Hochberg and Tenenbein [3] and of Albers and Veldman [1] are extended to the case where the standard method is not perfect, but its misclassification probabilities have known values. Both moment and maximum-likelihood estimators are considered and some asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are compared.     

The role and capabilities of major weapon systems transferred between 1950 and 2010: Empirical examinations of an arms transfer data set

Arms transfers provide exporters an avenue to provide security to other states while gaining economic benefits. Arms transfers provide importers an avenue to gain security without having to rely on alliances. Past research uses aggregate measures of the monetary or security value of major weapon system transfers without accounting for strategic differences in possible use in interstate and civil conflict. This article presents a data set on interstate transfers of major weapon systems between 1950 and 2010 building upon Stockholm Peach Research Institute’s Arms Trade Register with several improvements. First, it disaggregates land weapons and air weapons into categories reflecting their strategic capabilities. Second, model level characteristics (e.g. age, speed, and range) are drawn from Jane’s Defence sources. Additionally, the data set covers a larger range of time and states than previous data sets categorizing arms. To demonstrate the usefulness, this article first presents summary statistics of the data set and then replicates an earlier test to show that the effect of human rights and regime types on United States transfers differs across the categories of arms compared to alternative measures of arms transfers.     

Upstream engagement and downstream entanglements: The assumptions,opportunities, and threats of partnering

This article addresses Western recruitment and management of personnel from non-Western countries in armed forces as part of a strategy of state stabilisation, examining its risks and benefits. ‘SFA’ (Security Forces Assistance) to indigenous forces has long been practised by the West and seems to have returned in recent years in a new form with the creation of armies in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, while providing cheap, proxy substitutes for the West and offering opportunities for state-building, the policy creates its own problems and can have significant, negative consequences.