Advancing “Defence-in-depth”: intelligence and systems dynamics

This article aims to encourage the fostering of more systems thinking, and its greater exploitation, within the domain of contemporary intelligence. With particular focus on “micro systems thinking” and with reference to key intelligence processes, such as intelligence analysis, the utility of many systems dynamics within the intelligence context seeks to be further revealed. Through their greater collective harnessing, including up to “System of Systems” (“SoS”) dynamics, and promoting all that they can offer, more sophisticated overarching operational-to-strategic/policy “ends,” notably that of “defence-in-depth,” can be viably further advanced in a sustainable manner into the future. Arguably, a much-needed transformative impact on contemporary intelligence can also be increasingly realised through comprehensively engaging in and with more systems and SoS thinking. Aiding civil protection tasks, crisis management, emergency planners, and civil contingency practitioners likewise gain.     

Clinical Characterization of Insomnia among Veterans with PTSD: Identifying Risk Factors for Diagnosis and Treatment with Sedative-Hypnotics

Abstract

Insomnia is prevalent among Veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), it exacerbates PTSD symptoms, and it contributes to impaired functioning and quality of life. To improve treatment outcomes, it is important to identify risk factors for insomnia and sedative-hypnotic use. Classification and regression trees and logistic regression models were used to identify variables associated with insomnia or sedative-hypnotic use. Key findings include low insomnia diagnosis rates (3.5–5.6%) and high rates of sedative-hypnotics (44.2–49.0%). Younger Veterans and those without a breathing-related sleep disorder (BRSD) were more likely to receive an insomnia diagnosis. Veterans with greater service connection and those with an alcohol/substance use disorder were more likely to be prescribed sedative-hypnotics. Interaction terms may have identified potential groups at risk of being under-diagnosed with insomnia (i.e. non-black Veterans with psychiatric co-morbidity, black Veterans without psychiatric co-morbidity) as well as groups at risk for sedative-hypnotic use (i.e. younger Veterans without BRSD). In sum, Veterans with PTSD have high rates of sedative-hypnotic use despite minimal evidence they are effective. This is counter to recommendations indicating behavioral interventions are the first-line treatment. Policy changes are needed to reduce use of sedative-hypnotics and increase access to behavioral insomnia interventions.     

Scheduling jobs with piecewise linear decreasing processing times

We study the problems of scheduling a set of nonpreemptive jobs on a single or multiple machines without idle times where the processing time of a job is a piecewise linear nonincreasing function of its start time. The objectives are the minimization of makespan and minimization of total job completion time. The single machine problems are proved to be NP‐hard, and some properties of their optimal solutions are established. A pseudopolynomial time algorithm is constructed for makespan minimization. Several heuristics are derived for both total completion time and makespan minimization. Computational experiments are conducted to evaluate their efficiency. NP‐hardness proofs and polynomial time algorithms are presented for some special cases of the parallel machine problems. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 531–554, 2003     

Nuclear‐ and missile‐related trade and developments for selected countries,July‐October 1997

The material in this overview is drawn from selected abstracts that appear in the Center for Nonproliferation Studies’ nuclear and missile databases. Transactions of nuclear and missile technologies, parts, and materials are listed according o the recipient country. Other developments are listed according to the country where the event or development took place.     

The German Invasion of Norway, 1940: The Operational Intelligence Dimension

While many analyses of the 9 April 1940 invasion of Norway have looked at the successful interplay of German air, sea and land components, the part performed by intelligence has largely received only cursory attention. This article seeks to redress this, and investigates the pivotal role intelligence played in the planning, preparation, and carrying out of Weserübung. The study examines the dearth of relevant information in the early planning stage; the subsequent accumulation of military assessments of Norway's defensive capabilities; the process of denying London and Oslo intelligence regarding Berlin's intentions; the significance of Danish and Norwegian airfields to the operation; and the importance of maritime reconnaissance and wireless intercepts in monitoring the disposition of the Royal Navy. Although primarily concerned with German intelligence gathering and utilisation, British efforts, including the potential impact of Ultra, are also considered.     

Single machine sequencing with linear models of release dates

The paper deals with a problem of scheduling a set of jobs on a single machine. Before a job is released for processing, it must undergo some preprocessing treatment that consumes resources. It is assumed that the release date of a job is a linear decreasing continuous function of the amount of a locally and globally constrained, continuously divisible resource (e.g., energy, catalyzer, financial outlay, gas). The problem is to find a sequence of jobs and a resource allocation that will minimize the maximum job completion time. Such a problem appears, for example, in the ingot preheating and hot-rolling process in steel mills. It is shown that the problem is strongly NP-hard. Some polynomially solvable cases of the problem and approximate algorithms with both experimental and worst-case analysis are presented. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 99–113, 1998     

Nuclear ‐ and missile‐related trade and developments for selected countries,November 1996‐February 1997

The material in this overview is drawn from selected abstracts that appear in the Center for Nonproliferation Studies’ nuclear and missile databases. Transactions of nuclear and missile technologies, parts, and materials are listed according to the recipient country. Other developments are listed according to the country where the event or development took place. The new, streamlined format of this section indicates a decision by the Monitoring Proliferation Threats Project to focus on only key information in the overview and to offer more in‐depth analysis in the “Reports” section of the journal.