装备剩余寿命预测平行仿真中模型动态演化方法

装备平行仿真中的一个重要概念是实时数据驱动的模型动态演化,但是至今仍缺乏具体应用领域的实现方法。以带未知离散冲击的混合退化装备剩余寿命预测为背景,以多态Wiener状态空间模型为演化对象,提出一种装备平行仿真中模型动态演化方法,包括基于交互多模型强跟踪滤波的模型软切换和基于期望最大化算法的模型参数在线估计,并实现了基于平行仿真的装备剩余寿命实时预测。利用某轴承退化数据进行实例研究,结果表明该方法能有效提高仿真逼真度,剩余寿命预测的准确度较高、不确定性较小,具有较高工程应用价值。     

阵列雷达自适应多零点单脉冲群目标测角算法

针对阵列体制雷达,由极大似然估计导出自适应多零点单脉冲测角原理。分析发现迭代步长过大导致双零点单脉冲技术在多目标条件下失效,因此提出加权步长改进角度估计的迭代过程,只需要较少计算量就能实现群内多个目标的精确测角。仿真结果表明：该算法在较高信噪比条件下可以精确测量群内三个目标角度,测角误差约为0.15倍波束宽度;当群目标数较多或者目标相位差接近于0时,算法性能下降明显。     

北斗卫星导航系统多进制LDPC编码性能评估

考虑到卫星导航系统传输距离远、落地信号功率低,导航接收机在复杂遮挡环境下可能受到干扰不能正常解调电文,导航电文设计中一般采用纠错编码获取编码增益来提升恶劣环境下的解调性能。随着技术水平的提高,各大系统在现代化升级过程中越来越多地采用性能更优的纠错编码,北斗全球系统现代化信号导航电文将采用多进制LDPC编码。在研究多进制LDPC编译码原理基础上,首次对北斗采用的64进制LDPC进行了软件仿真和硬件实现,对北斗卫星导航系统多进制LDPC编译码性能和实现复杂度进行了仿真分析和试验平台测试,结果表明,多进制LDPC编码方案具有较高的编码增益,相对二进制LDPC有0.4~0.8 dB的优势,对于恶劣环境下的解调性能具有较大改善,该研究可为北斗现代化信号接收终端研发提供参考。     

月球轨道超长波天文观测微卫星在轨数据预处理方法

围绕“嫦娥4号”月球轨道超长波天文观测微卫星展开研究,针对微纳卫星对地数传资源的限制,提出一种在轨信号预处理方法：通过10通道数字下变频链路实现原始数据的变频接收,再利用多级滤波器抽取获得低采样率基带数据,下变频本振频率可调,在对地数传资源约束下保证了不同频带数据的灵活选取。以上方法实现了一种10频点超窄带梳状滤波,仿真验证表明,采样率80 MSPS基带带宽为1 kHz的情况下,此方法可在现场可编程门阵列平台上稳定运行,能保证带内平坦度和线性相位等关键技术指标, 数据量与直接下传原始数据相比,降低了3个数量级以上。     

横向效应增强型弹垂直侵彻薄靶的轴向剩余速度理论分析

为了得到横向效应增强型弹（Penetration with Enhanced Lateral Efficiency projectile, PELE）对金属薄靶垂直侵彻后的弹体轴向剩余速度,运用平面冲击波理论,对PELE的侵彻机理进行分析。参照平头弹体对靶板的侵彻模型,将PELE侵彻过程中的能量损失划分为以下几个部分：外壳体和内芯撞靶区域对应的环形塞块获得的能量、冲击波作用下弹体的内能增量以及剪切耗能等。然后根据能量守恒原理,得到PELE垂直侵彻金属薄靶后的PELE弹体轴向剩余速度的理论模型。为了验证该模型的合理性和准确性,设计相应的试验进行验证。结果表明,不同条件下得到的试验结果和理论模型得到的计算结果均吻合得较好。因此,得到的PELE垂直侵彻薄靶的轴向剩余速度理论模型可为工程应用提供指导和参考。     

采用射流掺混增强的前可调面积涵道引射器数值模拟

为了提高风扇外涵和核心机驱动风扇级外涵流体的掺混效率,提出一种采用射流掺混增强的前可调面积引射器设计方案。通过数值模拟的手段对流量特性、流动掺混和总压损失等方面进行了研究,并同基准模型进行了对比分析,结果表明：采用波瓣混合器结构的前可调面积引射器设计,显著地增加了较高出口背压工况下风扇外涵的流通能力;新的设计方案不仅没有增加低出口背压工况下的总压损失,还减小了高背压出口工况下的流动损失;流向涡的特征尺度是提高掺混效率的关键,可以进一步优化波瓣混合器几何轮廓,以满足调节机构对结构设计的要求。     

Introduction

ABSTRACT

The new nuclear history can make a critical contribution by forcing us to reconsider or reframe the theoretical premises of the concepts we apply to our understanding of the present – and with which we try to navigate the future. It bears on fundamental questions, such as: How should the US manage its alliances? Should it establish a multilateral nuclear policy dialogue in Asia? In what depth should it discuss issues of doctrine and targeting with its Asian allies? What capabilities might reassure European allies in light of current Russian revisionism? Could nuclear war be limited and controlled in an East Asian maritime arena? Do nuclear weapons strengthen an alliance, or do they introduce a divisive bone of contention? Is extended nuclear deterrence (END) stabilizing or is it on the contrary pushing the allies to ask for more? What is the relationship between nuclear and conventional forces in END credibility? How do nuclear alliances contribute to international security and international order? The lessons and insights from these papers, which look at five historical cases of US extended deterrence during the Cold War, should help us think about crucial current issues, and be of use both to historians who want to have a better understanding of the Cold War past and to policymakers who are currently grappling with these issues.     

Value management of diagnostic equipment with cancelation,no‐show,and emergency patients

Magnetic resonance imaging and other multifunctional diagnostic facilities, which are considered as scarce resources of hospitals, typically provide services to patients with different medical needs. This article examines the admission policies during the appointment management of such facilities. We consider two categories of patients: regular patients who are scheduled in advance through an appointment system and emergency patients with randomly generated demands during the workday that must be served as soon as possible. According to the actual medical needs of patients, regular patients are segmented into multiple classes with different cancelation rates, no‐show probabilities, unit value contributions, and average service times. Management makes admission decisions on whether or not to accept a service request from a regular patient during the booking horizon to improve the overall value that could be generated during the workday. The decisions should be made by considering the cancelation and no‐show behavior of booked patients as well as the emergency patients that would have to be served because any overtime service would lead to higher costs. We studied the optimal admission decision using a continuous‐time discrete‐state dynamic programming model. Identifying an optimal policy for this discrete model is analytically intractable and numerically inefficient because the state is multidimensional and infinite. We propose to study a deterministic counterpart of the problem (i.e., the fluid control problem) and to develop a time‐based fluid policy that is shown to be asymptotically optimal for large‐scale problems. Furthermore, we propose to adopt a mixed fluid policy that is developed based on the information obtained from the fluid control problem. Numerical experiments demonstrate that this improved policy works effectively for small‐scale problems. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 287–304, 2016     

Contracts and coordination: Supply chains with uncertain demand and supply

Considering a supply chain with a supplier subject to yield uncertainty selling to a retailer facing stochastic demand, we find that commonly studied classical coordination contracts fail to coordinate both the supplier's production and the retailer's procurement decisions and achieve efficient performance. First, we study the vendor managed inventory (VMI) partnership. We find that a consignment VMI partnership coupled with a production cost subsidy achieves perfect coordination and a win‐win outcome; it is simple to implement and arbitrarily allocates total channel profit. The production cost subsidy optimally chosen through Nash bargaining analysis depends on the bargaining power of the supplier and the retailer. Further, motivated by the practice that sometimes the retailer and the supplier can arrange a “late order,” we also analyze the behavior of an advance‐purchase discount (APD) contract. We find that an APD with a revenue sharing contract can efficiently coordinate the supply chain as well as achieve flexible profit allocation. Finally, we explore which coordination contract works better for the supplier vs. the retailer. It is interesting to observe that Nash bargaining solutions for the two coordination contracts are equivalent. We further provide recommendations on the applications of these contracts. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 305–319, 2016     

Resequencing with parallel queues to minimize the maximum number of items in the overflow area

This article treats an elementary optimization problem, where an inbound stream of successive items is to be resequenced with the help of multiple parallel queues in order to restore an intended target sequence. Whenever early items block the one item to be currently released into the target sequence, they are withdrawn from their queue and intermediately stored in an overflow area until their actual release is reached. We aim to minimize the maximum number of items simultaneously stored in the overflow area during the complete resequencing process. We met this problem in industry practice at a large German automobile producer, who has to resequence containers with car seats prior to the assembly process. We formalize the resulting resequencing problem and provide suited exact and heuristic solution algorithms. In our computational study, we also address managerial aspects such as how to properly avoid the negative effects of sequence alterations. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 401–415, 2016