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171.
This paper aims at forecasting the burden on the Greek economy resulting from the arms race against Turkey and at concentrating on the leading determinants of this burden. The military debt and the defence share of GDP are employed alternatively in order to approximate the measurement of the arms race pressure on Greece, and the method used is that of artificial neural networks. The use of a wide variety of explanatory variables in combination with the promising results derived, suggest that the impact on the Greek economy resulting from this arms race is determined, to a large, extent, by demographic factors which strongly favour the Turkish side. Prediction on both miltary debt and defence expenditure exhibited highly satisfactory accuracy, while the estimation of input significance, indicates that variables describing the Turkish side are often dominant over the corresponding Greek ones. 相似文献
172.
Whose preferences determine the tradeoff between security and civilian output in deciding upon budget allocations to defence? This paper considers the role that consumer preferences might play in influencing military spending. We propose normative criteria to judge the economic or political efficiency of defence provision at a given time, and test them using Australian survey‐based micro‐data. Our results suggest that the political system has not delivered a simple social‐choice translation of individual preferences into collective outcomes, nor has it delivered results consistent with simple majority‐voting median preferences. 相似文献
173.
Christos A. Avramides 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(2):145-187
This paper models and estimates Greek defence spending over the 1950–1989 period. It employs the Stone‐Geary welfare function and estimates levels of defence expenditures by the Engle‐Granger two‐step procedure. The Dickey‐Fuller test regression for cointegration is specified in terms of the significance of additional augmentations. The Deaton‐Muellbauer functional form is then employed and an estimating equation for the expenditure share of defence is derived. This specification is compared with the levels equation through a number of non‐nested tests involving model transformation. 相似文献
174.
A. Sokri 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(6):645-653
A nonlinear optimization model is developed in this paper to identify the optimal replacement strategy for military aircraft. In the model, the aircraft operating and maintenance (O&M) costs per available year are estimated as a function of age during the aircraft life cycle. After determining the optimal replacement policy, the model is applied to the CF Long-Range Patrol CP-140A Arcturus fleet. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out to assess the impact of some key model parameters on the result. 相似文献
175.
One of the most important issues facing the post‐Cold War U.S. defense establishment concerns the future allocation of combat tasks and responsibilities among different branches of the armed forces. The challenge is to reduce unnecessary redundancy across roles and missions when resources are highly constrained, without compromising military effectiveness. Defining the policy problem as one of resource allocation rather than operational effectiveness, we develop a methodology for allocating roles and missions. Our methodology focuses at the highest level of force aggregation and uses a mathematical programming model to produce cross‐service cross‐mission trade‐offs that will yield the best total force combat and non‐combat potential within resource consumption constraints. 相似文献
176.
Simen A. Ellingsen 《The Nonproliferation Review》2013,20(2):399-402
On Nuclear Terrorism, by Michael Levi. Harvard University Press, 2007. 210 pages, $24.95. 相似文献
177.
Nicholas A. Sims 《The Nonproliferation Review》2013,20(2):351-372
The Sixth Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) gave the future of biological disarmament new hope. It brought the BWC back closer to the core of multilateral efforts to combat the weaponization of disease, agreed to an intersessional work program for 2007–2010, created an implementation support unit, and revived the interrupted process of BWC evolution through extended understandings agreed at review conferences. However, its aims were deliberately modest. Having set their sights realistically low, delegations did not have to lower them much further. What was most important was to prevent U.S.-Iranian acrimony from paralyzing the conference. With deadlock once again narrowly averted, the conference had to clear away the debris left from past dissensions in order to open the way to constructive evolution for the treaty. In particular the conference avoided contentious subjects such as permanent organization and verification measures for the BWC; its institutional deficit and compliance problems remain. Successes and limitations of the conference are analyzed, as is its equivocal outcome on confidence-building measures. Developing on the endogenous principle, the BWC will continue to need constant attention. At the center of a complex edifice, the BWC must be kept sound, strong, and solid. 相似文献
178.
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180.
THOMAS A. MARKS 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2013,24(3):100-157
Urban insurgency has generally been presented by analysts and security force personnel as a distinct variant. In contrast, insurgents themselves have often recognized the particular requirements of two dissimilar but related approaches of operation, the urban and rural. Hence they have sought to field approaches and doctrine that exploited the specifics of each. In some cases, simply debating such has led to internal fractures that could not be overcome. More often there has been a deadly rural-urban synthesis that has increasingly challenged security forces. 相似文献