The estimation of P(x < Y) for distributions useful in life testing

In this paper the reliability function K = P(X < Y) has been estimated when X and Y follow gamma, exponential or bivariate exponential distributions. The paper is partly expository.     

Econometric forecasting via discounted least squares

Simple direct smoothing formulas are derived for updating coefficient estimates and forecasts in a discounted least squares model. These formulas are the natural extensions of R. G. Brown's well-known smoothing formulas to a general econometric setting with arbitrary explanatory time series. The recursive updating process and its forecast error properties are illustrated via a simple, yet realistic numerical example.     

Reliability applications of the relevation transform

It is shown that Krakowski's relevation transform generates the nonhomogeneous Poisson process in an analogous fashion to the way in which Stieltjes convolution generates the renewal process. Properties of failure rates and of inter-failure times are discussed and an application to warranty analysis is described.     

潜在故障状态可测的一种故障检查模型

从系统的功能故障状态和潜在故障状态两方面讨论了故障检查模型,基于延迟时间模型推导了系统的期望可用度模型并对其适用性进行了讨论与验证。     

Experimental and numerical investigations of interface properties of Ti6Al4V/CP-Ti/Copper composite plate prepared by explosive welding

Explosive welding technique is widely used in many industries. This technique is useful to weld different kinds of metal alloys that are not easily welded by any other welding methods. Interlayer plays an important role to improve the welding quality and control energy loss during the collision process. In this paper, the Ti6Al4V plate was welded with a copper plate in the presence of a commercially pure titanium interlayer. Microstructure details of welded composite plate were observed through optical and scanning electron microscope. Interlayer-base plate interface morphology showed a wavy structure with solid melted regions inside the vortices. Moreover, the energy dispersive spectroscopy analysis in the interlayer-base interface reveals that there are some identified regions of different kinds of chemical equilibrium phases of Cu–Ti, i.e. CuTi, Cu₂Ti, CuTi₂, Cu₄Ti, etc. To study the mechanical properties of composite plates, mechanical tests were conducted, including the tensile test, bending test, shear test and Vickers hardness test. Numerical simulation of explosive welding process was performed with coupled Smooth Particle Hydrodynamic method, Euler and Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian method. The multi-physics process of explosive welding, including detonation, jetting and interface morphology, was observed with simulation. Moreover, simulated plastic strain, temperature and pressure profiles were analysed to understand the welding conditions. Simulated results show that the interlayer base plate interface was created due to the high plastic deformation and localized melting of the parent plates. At the collision point, both alloys behave like fluids, resulting in the formation of a wavy morphology with vortices, which is in good agreement with the experimental results.     

Averaging frameworks for simulation optimization with applications to simulated annealing

We present two frameworks for designing random search methods for discrete simulation optimization. One of our frameworks is very broad (in that it includes many random search methods), whereas the other one considers a special class of random search methods called point‐based methods, that move iteratively between points within the feasible region. Our frameworks involve averaging, in that all decisions that require estimates of the objective function values at various feasible solutions are based on the averages of all observations collected at these solutions so far. Also, the methods are adaptive in that they can use information gathered in previous iterations to decide how simulation effort is expended in the current iteration. We show that the methods within our frameworks are almost surely globally convergent under mild conditions. Thus, the generality of our frameworks and associated convergence guarantees makes the frameworks useful to algorithm developers wishing to design efficient and rigorous procedures for simulation optimization. We also present two variants of the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm and provide their convergence analysis as example application of our point‐based framework. Finally, we provide numerical results that demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of averaging and adaptivity in the context of SA. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012