Counterinsurgency as armed reform: The political history of the Malayan Emergency

Despite the emphasis in doctrine and academia that counterinsurgency is in its essence political, these operations are all too commonly discussed and approached as primarily military endeavors. Informed by the need to refocus counterinsurgency studies, this article revisits a foundational case of the canon – the Malayan Emergency – to discuss its political (i.e., not military) unfolding. The analysis distinguishes itself by emphasizing the diplomatic processes, negotiations, and deals that gave strategic meaning to the military operations underway. In so doing, the article also generates insight on the use of leverage and elite bargains in creating new political settlements and bringing insurgent conflicts to an end.     

How long until midnight? Intelligence-policy relations and the United States response to the Israeli nuclear program, 1959–1985

Why did the United States fail to stop Israeli acquisition of nuclear weapons? Existing research argues that patrons such as the U.S. should have an easy time halting proliferation by militarily and economically vulnerable clients. Nevertheless, Israel acquired nuclear weapons with relatively little American opposition. Utilizing extensive primary source research, we argue that problematic intelligence-policy relations hindered U.S. efforts to arrest Israeli proliferation as (1) policymakers often gave mixed guidance to the intelligence community, resulting in (2) limited information on Israeli efforts that reinforced policy ambiguity. The results carry implications for understanding the dynamics of nuclear proliferation and intelligence-policy relations.     

A Cryptographic Escrow for Treaty Declarations and Step-by-Step Verification

The verification of arms-control and disarmament agreements requires states to provide declarations, including information on sensitive military sites and assets. There are important cases, however, in which negotiations of these agreements are impeded because states are reluctant to provide any such data, because of concerns about prematurely handing over militarily significant information. To address this challenge, we present a cryptographic escrow that allows a state to make a complete declaration of sites and assets at the outset and commit to its content, but only reveal the sensitive information therein sequentially. Combined with an inspection regime, our escrow allows for step-by-step verification of the correctness and completeness of the initial declaration so that the information release and inspections keep pace with parallel diplomatic and political processes. We apply this approach to the possible denuclearization of North Korea. Such approach can be applied, however, to any agreement requiring the sharing of sensitive information.     

Robust shortest path planning and semicontractive dynamic programming

In this article, we consider shortest path problems in a directed graph where the transitions between nodes are subject to uncertainty. We use a minimax formulation, where the objective is to guarantee that a special destination state is reached with a minimum cost path under the worst possible instance of the uncertainty. Problems of this type arise, among others, in planning and pursuit‐evasion contexts, and in model predictive control. Our analysis makes use of the recently developed theory of abstract semicontractive dynamic programming models. We investigate questions of existence and uniqueness of solution of the optimality equation, existence of optimal paths, and the validity of various algorithms patterned after the classical methods of value and policy iteration, as well as a Dijkstra‐like algorithm for problems with nonnegative arc lengths.© 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 66:15–37, 2019     

Constant risk aversion in stochastic contests with exponential completion times

This article analyzes a class of stochastic contests among multiple players under risk‐averse exponential utility. In these contests, players compete over the completion of a task by simultaneously deciding on their investment, which determines how fast they complete the task. The completion time of the task for each player is assumed to be an exponentially distributed random variable with rate linear in the player's investment and the completion times of different players are assumed to be stochastically independent. The player that completes the task first earns a prize whereas the remaining players earn nothing. The article establishes a one‐to‐one correspondence between the Nash equilibrium of this contest with respect to risk‐averse exponential utilities and the nonnegative solution of a nonlinear equation. Using the properties of the latter, it proves the existence and the uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium, and provides an efficient method to compute it. It exploits the resulting representation of the equilibrium investments to determine the effects of risk aversion and the differences between the outcome of the Nash equilibrium and that of a centralized version.© 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 66:4–14, 2019     

Some new results on the preservation of the NBUE and NWUE aging classes under the formation of coherent systems

We consider the classical problem of whether certain classes of lifetime distributions are preserved under the formation of coherent systems. Under the assumption of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) component lifetimes, we consider the NBUE (new better than used in expectation) and NWUE (new worse than used in expectation) classes. First, a necessary condition for a coherent system to preserve the NBUE class is given. Sufficient conditions are then obtained for systems satisfying this necessary condition. The sufficient conditions are satisfied for a collection of systems which includes all parallel systems, but the collection is shown to be strictly larger. We also prove that no coherent system preserves the NWUE class. As byproducts of our study, we obtain the following results for the case of i.i.d. component lifetimes: (a) the DFR (decreasing failure rate) class is preserved by no coherent systems other than series systems, and (b) the IMRL (increasing mean residual life) class is not preserved by any coherent systems. Generalizations to the case of dependent component lifetimes are briefly discussed.     

On gamma estimation via matrix kriging

In financial engineering, sensitivities of derivative prices (also known as the Greeks) are important quantities in risk management, and stochastic gradient estimation methods are used to estimate them given the market parameters. In practice, the surface (function) of the Greeks with respect to the underlying parameters is much more desired, because it can be used in real‐time risk management. In this paper, we consider derivatives with multiple underlying assets, and propose three stochastic kriging‐based methods, the element‐by‐element, the importance mapping, and the Cholesky decomposition, to fit the surface of the gamma matrix that can fulfill the time constraint and the precision requirement in real‐time risk management. Numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.     

A conceptual framework for the analysis of civil-military relations and intelligence

ABSTRACT

The article argues that current conceptual approaches in civil-military relations are deeply flawed resulting in its irrelevance in analyzing major issues including war and the collapse of democracy. After highlighting major flaws in the work of the late Samuel Huntington and those who follow his approach, the article argues that other conceptual approaches, including Security Sector Reform, are also flawed, or in the case of the “military effectiveness” literature, largely irrelevant. In explaining the main causes of the flawed conceptual literature, the article highlights the absence of good data and challenges in methodology. While arguing that military forces are very unlikely to engage in armed combat, it highlights the roles and missions which in the world today are implanted by these forces. As it is virtually impossible to prove effectiveness of the armed forces in these roles and missions, the article proposes a conceptual approach based on requirements.     

Intellectual spring cleaning: it’s time for a military “Do Not Read” list; and some sources that should be on that list

Military reading lists, intended to promote professional reading and in turn enhance education and develop critical thinking skills and sound judgement, recommend key texts to military personnel. This is a noble intent but the lists themselves, while generally good, are not flawless. Critiques of military reading lists often focus on what sources they are missing. This article offers its own critique but from a different perspective. It does so by analysing why some sources, which have become outdated, are based on faulty or incomplete research, have been thoroughly disproven, or some combination of the above, nevertheless linger on military reading lists. It then offers a short list of such sources, which it recommends be either removed from existing reading lists or accompanied by other sources that place the original source in appropriate historical context. Where applicable, it also recommends alternative sources that provide insights into the same subject matter. In so doing, this article is intended generate debate and to assist militaries to achieve a better balance between evaluation, induction and retention of valid knowledge on one hand, and rejection of outdated or flawed knowledge on the other.     

Uncultured: Civil War and Cultural Policy

How does cultural policy affect violence? While cultural discrimination is frequently cited as a potential grievance motivating political violence, the relationship remains under-theorised and largely untested. I weave theoretical literatures with interviews and secondary sources on the experience of Kurds in Turkey to understand the socio-economic and psychological pathways through which cultural policies impact intrastate conflict. I then analyse cross-national data on political violence, demonstrating that cultural grievances increase support for violence, raise the chance and severity of conflict and prolong violent conflicts. In short, policy matters: cultural restrictions exacerbate violence through multiple pathways.