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161.
Mohini Rawool‐Sullivan Paul D. Moskowitz Ludmila N. Shelenkova 《The Nonproliferation Review》2013,20(1):161-171
When does a state become a “nuclear weapon state”? How we choose to answer this question has significant implications for proliferation assessment, analysis, and policy. Traditionally, the standard demarcation line has been a state's first nuclear test, but in recent years analysts have increasingly focused instead on the accumulation of a significant quantity (SQ) of fissile material. The article argues that although the test/no-test indicator clearly has problems, its replacement by the SQ/no-SQ indicator would be highly counterproductive. The article instead proposes supplementing the traditional test/no-test indicator with a theory-driven approach that focuses on the incentives and disincentives to test. 相似文献
162.
We revisit the causal relationship between military spending and unemployment in the G7 countries applying a bootstrap panel causality analysis that accounts for both cross-sectional dependence and for heterogeneity across countries. Using per capita real GDP as a controlled variable, we found a unidirectional causality running from military spending to unemployment for Canada, Japan, and the US, one-way causality running from unemployment to military spending for France and Germany, and bidirectional causality for Italy and the UK. The empirical evidence does not seem to provide consistent results regarding the causal relationship between military spending and unemployment in G7 countries. 相似文献
163.
Michael D. Intriligator 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(1):3-11
Defence economics uses the tools of economics to study the defence sector and its domestic and international implications. Simple models require careful application in defence economics, since indirect effects may have counterintuitive impacts. For example, while certain arms races can lead to the outbreak of war, others may have the counterintuitive effect of discouraging the outbreak of war owing to mutual deterrence. The world is now multipolar rather than bipolar, analogous to an oligopoly situation. This multipolar world can be analyzed by a qualitative characteristic function, where the formation of a potential coalition allows study of the shift from conflict to cooperation in international relations. Some new issues to be considered in this framework include accidental nuclear war, potential arms races and conflicts in the third world, and the proliferation of chemical weapons and missiles. 相似文献
164.
The material in this overview is drawn from selected abstracts that appear in the Center for Nonproliferation Studies’ nuclear and missile databases. Transactions of nuclear and missile technologies, parts, and materials are listed according to the recipient country. Other developments are listed according to the country where the event or development took place. The new, streamlined format of this section indicates a decision by the Monitoring Proliferation Threats Project to focus on only key information in the overview and to offer more in‐depth analysis in the “Reports” section of the journal. 相似文献
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167.
Consider a patrol problem, where a patroller traverses a graph through edges to detect potential attacks at nodes. An attack takes a random amount of time to complete. The patroller takes one time unit to move to and inspect an adjacent node, and will detect an ongoing attack with some probability. If an attack completes before it is detected, a cost is incurred. The attack time distribution, the cost due to a successful attack, and the detection probability all depend on the attack node. The patroller seeks a patrol policy that minimizes the expected cost incurred when, and if, an attack eventually happens. We consider two cases. A random attacker chooses where to attack according to predetermined probabilities, while a strategic attacker chooses where to attack to incur the maximal expected cost. In each case, computing the optimal solution, although possible, quickly becomes intractable for problems of practical sizes. Our main contribution is to develop efficient index policies—based on Lagrangian relaxation methodology, and also on approximate dynamic programming—which typically achieve within 1% of optimality with computation time orders of magnitude less than what is required to compute the optimal policy for problems of practical sizes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 61: 557–576, 2014 相似文献
168.
In this paper, we discuss two‐dimensional failure modeling for a system where degradation is due to age and usage. We extend the concept of minimal repair for the one‐dimensional case to the two‐dimensional case and characterize the failures over a two‐dimensional region under minimal repair. An application of this important result to a manufacturer's servicing costs for a two‐dimensional warranty policy is given and we compare the minimal repair strategy with the strategy of replacement of failure. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004. 相似文献
169.
Adam D.M. Svendsen 《Defense & Security Analysis》2012,28(3):234-246
Adopting the analytical framework of the established interpretive “schools” of Anglo-American relations, this article offers several reflections on UK–US defense relations as they occurred over the significant years of 2000–2005. During those years, trajectories were established on which UK–US defense relations continue to travel today and outcomes emerged which are still being navigated. This article concludes that the Latin phrase, “Flectas Non Frangas” (essentially translated as: “Bend not Break”), is the most appropriate to adopt to characterize the developments undergone in recent UK–US defense relations. Many historical and strategic lessons with contemporary relevance are drawn. 相似文献
170.
In this paper, we consider a situation in which a group of facilities must be constructed in order to serve a given set of customers, where the facilities might not be able to guarantee an absolute coverage to the different customers. We examine the problem of maximizing the total service reliability of the system subject to a budgetary constraint. We propose a new reformulation of this problem that facilitates the generation of tight lower and upper bounds. These bounding mechanisms are embedded within the framework of a branch‐and‐bound procedure. Computational results on problem instances ranging in size up to 100 facilities and 200 customers reveal the efficacy of the proposed exact and heuristic approaches. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006 相似文献