The economic effects of international trade in armaments in the major western industrialized and developing countries†

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the impact of exports and imports of armaments (based on 1980 data) on sectoral trade and employment and other economic variables in the major Western trading countries. If the United States were to place a unilateral embargo on its arms exports and imports, we calculate that it would experience a comparatively small amount of employment displacement in the aggregate and that most of this displacement would occur in the transport equipment and electric machinery sectors. If all the major Western countries were to place a multilateral embargo on their arms trade, the sectoral effects on the United States would be similarly small. But the sectoral effects in several other industrialized and developing countries measured as a percentage of sectoral employment, would be larger, indicating potential short‐run adjustment problems in labor markets in some cases.     

基于标签树的生长干部招生计划聚类方法

生长干部招生计划是规定军队干部补充来源渠道及数量规模的重要依据,对干部队伍建设与发展具有重要的意义。随着招生计划每年拟制与积累,分析与评估计划将会起到辅助决策的作用,对招生工作的实施带来深远影响。本文从数据挖掘的角度,以聚类的方法研究分析招生计划,这为分析历年计划的波动性并理解评价计划与政策的贴合度提供了定量分析的手段。首先分析了招生计划的特点,进而提出以标签树量化招生计划的解决思路,通过抽取标签树中的特征子树作为聚类中的度量特征,并采用共现的方法实施"先形成核心,再依次分类"的步骤完成聚类。实验表明该方法在合成数据集和真实数据集上聚类效果较好、效率较高,对分析招生计划具有一定理论意义。     

基于信息流的中枢疲劳脑电分析

为充分利用多导脑电信息,首次提出运用有向传递函数（DTF）方法,对不同中枢疲劳状态下导联间信息流的强度和方向的变化进行分析。研究结果表明,脑电功能耦合中额一到一顶方向的信息流是大脑皮层联系的一个固有特征,可以有效地刻画安静清醒和疲劳两个状态,长时间脑力劳动任务引起中枢疲劳的增加,进而导致整个频率段占优势的信息流的方向发生了反转,信息流占优势的方向从实验前的顶一到一额方向,转变为实验后的额一到一顶方向。     

Upper and lower bounds for a pattern bombing problem

This paper includes two simple analytic formulas for kill probability that are applicable in circumstances where shots should be fired in a pattern. The two formulas bracket the maximum kill probability achievable with an optimal pattern. The upper bound corresponds to an optimal nonfeasible pattern, and the lower bound to a nonoptimal feasible pattern.     

(R.Q) inventory problem with unknown mean demand and learning

We address a single product, continuous review model with stationary Poisson demand. Such a model has been effectively studied when mean demand is known. However, we are concerned with managing new items for which only a Bayesian prior distribution on the mean is available. As demand occurs, the prior is updated and our control parameters are revised. These include the reorder point (R) and reorder quantity (Q). Deemer, taking a clue from some earlier RAND work, suggested using a model appropriate for known mean, but using a Compound Poisson distribution for demand rather than Poisson to reflect uncertainty about the mean. Brown and Rogers also used this approach but within a periodic review context. In this paper we show how to compute optimum reorder points for a special problem closely related to the problem of real interest. In terms of the real problem, subject to a qualification to be discussed, the reorder points found are upper bounds for the optimum. At the same time, the reorder points found can never exceed those found by the Compound Poisson (Deemer) approach. And they can be smaller than those found when there is no uncertainty about the mean. As a check, the Compound Poisson and proposed approach are compared by simulation.     

Stationary (s,s) policies for a finite horizon

In the finite-horizon stochastic (s, S) inventory model with periodic review the parameters of the optimal policy generally vary with the length of the horizon. A stationary policy, however, is easier to implement and may be easier to calculate. This paper studies optimal stationary policies for a finite horizon and relates them to optimal policies through their relation to optimal stationary policies for an infinite horizon.     

Heuristic solution to a discrete collection model

A discrete time Collection Model is formulated, involving the completion of a touring objective on a network with stochastic node states. Heuristic touring strategies are constructed, there being as yet inadequate analytic results for its optimal solution. Effectiveness of the heuristics is assessed by comparing expected tour times under the heuristics with expected tour times given perfect information. A branch and bound algorithm is presented for computing the perfect information tour times.     

1553B接口模拟制导机设计与实现

根据某型合成孔径雷达项目型号的需要,在对该型号通信协议分析的基础上,采用1553B总线通信接口来设计满足雷达项目型号要求的模拟制导机,以配合项目型号的研制、调试和后续的保养维护等工作。模拟制导机采用某航天研究所自主研发的国产4 M/s速率PCI-1553B板卡、惯性测量单元和PC机结合,构成模拟制导机所需要的导航数据源、串口通信和1553B总线通信接口硬件平台。采用Visua1 C++6.0开发工具,设计模拟制导机界面、数据转换处理等软件构成模拟制导机通信控制平台。项目型号的调试结果证明,模拟制导机能够正确发出指令和制导数据,运行稳定,达到了设计要求。     

A note on eoq under fund constraints

An algorithm is developed to modify the Wilson Q to account for a short-term expenditure constraint over a catalog of items. Representative results are shown and generalizations made.