Approximate Bayesian intervals for the reliability of series systems from mixed subsystem test data

The determination of exact Bayesian intervals for the reliability of a series system from subsystem test data gives rise to computational difficulties involving severe loss of computing precision as the number of subsystems in the system increases. The end points of Bayesian intervals are percentage points of the posterior distribution and these are shown to be well approximated by Cornish and Fisher expansions when the number of subsystems is small. As the number of subsystems in the system increases even greater accuracy is guaranteed by the asymptotic nature of the expansions. The system posterior distribution function is also shown to be well approximated by an Edgeworth expansion.     

A heuristic procedure for allocating tasks in fault-tolerant distributed computer systems

One way of achieving the increased levels of system reliability and availability demanded by critical computer-based control systems is through the use of fault-tolerant distributed computer systems. This article addresses the problem of allocating a set of m tasks among a set of n processors in a manner that will satisfy various task assignment, system capacity, and task scheduling constraints while balancing the workload across processors. We discuss problem background, problem formulation, and a known heuristic procedure for the problem. A new solution-improving heuristic procedure is introduced, and computational experience with the heuristics is presented. With only a modest increase in the amount of computational effort, the new procedure is demonstrated to improve dramatically solution quality as well as obtain near-optimal solutions to the test problems.     

A new approach for dealing with the startup problem in discrete event simulation

This article proposes a practical, data-based statistical procedure which can be used to reduce or remove bias owing to artificial startup conditions in simulations aimed at estimating steady-state means. We discuss results of experiments designed to choose good parameter values for this procedure, and present results of extensive testing of the procedure on a variety of stochastic models for which partial analytical results are available. The article closes with two illustrations of the application of the procedure to more complex statistical problems which are more representative of the kinds of purposes for which real-world steady-state simulation studies might be undertaken.     

A note on a model for evasive vehicle movement along a fixed path

A model for a vehicle moving evasively along a fixed path is defined in terms of a two- state semi-Markov process. An important feature of this model is the continuous movement of the vehicle as a function of time. One potential application of this model is the development of a strategy for the deployment of long-range missiles on long underground tracks.     

The initial provisioning decision for insurance type items

Initial provisioning decisions (inventory stocking requirements) for low demand items often have to be made without much knowledge of what future demand rates will be. When the nature of an item is such that little demand for it is expected, the problem of whether to stock initially or risk not stocking the item is most critical. This report discusses this problem and presents decision procedures which can be used to handle this aspect of initial provisioning. The procedures relate an item's provisioning desirability to its provisioning characteristics, such as expected cost, expected resupply time, current information on its likely demand rate, and to an overall operating policy or criterion. The criterion function measures the total system degredation as a function of the events of having items out of stock when demand occurs. Several different policy functions are discussed and the provisioning decision rules which apply to each are presented. Demand rate information is handled through a Bayesian type approach. The decision rules presented in this report can be utilized to either determine stocking requirements within a budgetary constraint, or determine the relative stocking desirability on an item-by-item basis.     

Some simple scheduling algorithms

This paper considers situations in which jobs require only one operation on a single machine, or on one of a set of identical machines. Penalty-free interruption is allowed. Some simple algorithms are given for finding optimum schedules to minimize maximum lateness and total delay, for the single-machine case, and maximum lateness for a restricted multi-machine case. A simple flow problem formulation permits minimizing maximum lateness for the more general multimachine case.     

A saddle-point theorem for a class of infinite games

In this paper, the existence of a saddle point for two-person zero-sum infinite games of a special type is proved. The games have continuous bilinear payoff functions and strategy sets which are convex, noncompact subsets of an infinite-dimensional vector space. The closures of the strategy sets are, however, compact. The payoff functions satisfy conditions which allow the use of dominance arguments to show that points in the closure of a strategy set are dominated by or are strategically equivalent to points in the strategy set itself. Combining the dominance arguments with a well-known existence theorem produces the main result of the paper. The class of games treated is an extension of a class studied by J. D. Matheson, who obtained explicit solutions for the saddle points by using necessary conditions.     

Structural models of award fee contracts

This paper describes the construction of a mathematical model structure in a particular area of management. In addition it is intended as an illustration of how appropriate levels of mathematics can be utilized in management research when original formulations lack sufficient precision for conducting quantitative analyses. The specific area studied deals with the formulation and analysis of contract types. In particular the award fee type contract is treated. At present mathematical structure models for other contract types have received considerable attention, but award fee types have not been structured in mathematical terms. The paper provides a discussion of model formulation for award fee contracts, develops a detailed example of such a structure, and illustrates that model by numerical examples indicating the application of such models to the formulation and analysis of award fee contracts.     

A backward recursive technique for optimal sequential sampling plans

This paper presents a procedure akin to dynamic programming for designing optimal acceptance sampling plans for item-by-item inspection. Using a Bayesian procedure, a prior distribution is specified, and a suitable cost model is employed depicting the cost of sampling, accepting or rejecting the lot. An algorithm is supplied which is digital computer oriented.     

An application of servomechanisms to inventory

In recent years, some attention has been devoted to the application of techniques of control theory to inventory management. In particular, H. Vassian (1955) developed a model for a periodic review inventory system utilizing techniques of discrete variable servomechanisms to analyze the system in a cost-free structure. The resulting model is inherently deterministic, however, and emphasizes the control of inventory fluctuation about a safety level by selecting an appropriate order policy. Such an order policy is defined only up to an arbitrary method of forecasting customer demands. The present paper is a continuation of the model developed by Vassian in which exponential smoothing is used as a specific forecasting technique. Full recognition of the probabilistic nature of demand is taken into account and the requirement of minimizing expected inventory level is imposed. In addition, explicit formulas for the variance in inventory are derived as functions of the smoothing constant and the tradeoff between small variance and rapid system response is noted. Finally, in an attempt to remove the bias inherent in exponential smoothing, a modification of that technique is defined and discussed as an alternate forecasting method.