Short-term retrenchment planning in hierarchical manpower systems

We address the issue of short-term retrenchment planning required of organizations that are phasing down their manpower levels at rates faster than are allowed by natural attrition. Specifically, the problem we study is as follows: given the initial and target grade populations in a hierarchical manpower system at the end of a finite time horizon and the per-period rate of natural attrition for each grade, find a stationary manpower policy that minimizes the maximum per-period rate of retrenchment across all the grades over all stationary policies that yield the target grade populations at the end of the horizon. Because the problem is a nonconvex, nonseparable, nonlinear program, we develop a heuristic in which the promotion proportions of all the grades are successively fixed, starting from the lowest grade. We prove optimality of the heuristic policy in three nontrivial situations. In a computational experiment, in 135 out of 150 randomly generated instances (i.e., in 90% of the cases), the heuristic yielded a solution that was as good or better than that yielded by a benchmark computer program that solves the present problem as a nonlinear program. Further, the average computational time under the heuristic was an order of magnitude less than that under the program. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A suboptimality bound for permutation policies in single machine stochastic scheduling

A general class of single machine stochastic scheduling problems incorporating precedence constraints is modelled as a family of competing Markov decision processes. A bound on the optimal return yields a suboptimality bound for permutation policies. This in turn leads to a generalised “used better than new” principle as a (highly intuitive) sufficient condition for the optimality of a permutation policy in the class of all (preemptive) policies. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Pakistan's Evolving Nuclear Weapon Posture

This essay provides an overview of the ongoing quantitative and qualitative changes in Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and their impact on deterrence stability vis-à-vis India. Prominent among these trends is a major expansion in fissile material production that enables the manufacture of lighter and more compact warheads optimized for battlefield missions; the development of cruise missiles and shorter-range ballistic missiles possessing dual-use capabilities; and a greater emphasis in doctrinal pronouncements on the need for strike options geared to all levels of conflict. Although these trends pose problematic ramifications for the risks of unauthorized and inadvertent escalation, deterrence stability in South Asia is not as precarious as many observers fear. The challenges of fashioning a robust nuclear peace between India and Pakistan cannot be lightly dismissed, however, and policy makers would do well to undertake some reinforcing measures.     

Combining restorative justice and social justice: Prospects of child soldiering transitional justice

ABSTRACT

The most critical challenges faced by war-affected communities where children have allegedly perpetrated atrocities include: finding transitional justice practices that address the needs of former belligerent children and those of victims and their communities; and helping to reintegrate child soldiers into society and avoid returning to hostilities. This paper demonstrates that these challenges can be overcome by taking a holistic approach to child soldiering transitional justice, which assimilates restorative justice and social justice. Such an approach simultaneously addresses child soldiers’ criminal accountability and pursues their psychosocial wellbeing. The findings are based on a selective scholarship supported by fieldwork that was conducted in the Democratic Republic of Congo between May and December 2014 in North Kivu province. Data was gathered through semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions and survey questionnaires based on a randomised sample of 282 participants. These included self-demobilised child soldiers, members of war-affected communities, students/learners, educators, local traditional leaders, government officials, child protection lawyers and members of non-governmental organisations.     

Military spending and economic growth in South Africa

This paper undertakes an empirical analysis of the economic effects of military spending on the South African economy. It estimates a neo‐classical model common in the literature at the level of the macroeconomy and at the level of the manufacturing sector. An attempt is made to improve upon the model by allowing the data to determine the dynamic structure of the model through an ARDL procedure. No significant impact of military spending is found in aggregate, but there is a significant negative impact for the manufacturing sector. This suggests that the cuts in domestic military procurement that have occurred since 1989 could lead to improved economic performance in South Africa through their impact on the manufacturing sector.     

ZERO NUCLEAR WEAPONS

The current nuclear nonproliferation order is no longer sustainable. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) has weakened considerably over the years, with nuclear have-nots displaying increased dissatisfaction with the status quo. Meanwhile, demands for civilian nuclear technology have led to increased proliferation risks in the form of dual-use technologies. Arms control as we currently understand it—piecemeal treaties and agreements—is no longer sufficient to address the growing threat of proliferation and the frailty of the NPT. This article calls for a bolder nonproliferation agenda pursuing multilateral nuclear disarmament. Disarmament is, in fact, technologically achievable; a lack of political will stands as the only remaining roadblock to a world free of nuclear weapons. A better understanding of the technological feasibility of disarmament, as well as recognition of the diminishing strategic value of nuclear weapons, will help to erode this political reluctance.     

Comprehensive Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons: An Emerging International Norm?

ABSTRACT

There have been calls for the abolition of nuclear weapons from the day they were invented. Over the last fifteen years, some indications can be found that such calls have been getting louder, among them Barack Obama's famous 2009 speech in Prague. In this article, we investigate if support for a comprehensive norm that would prohibit development, possession, and use of nuclear weapons is really growing. To assess the current status of that norm, we use the model of a “norm life cycle,” developed by Martha Finnemore and Kathryn Sikkink. We then analyze 6,545 diplomatic statements from the review process of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as well as from the UN General Assembly First Committee on Disarmament and International Security, covering the years 2000 to 2013. The evidence shows that a comprehensive prohibition can be considered an emerging international norm that finds growing support among states without nuclear weapons and nuclear weapon states alike. Only a core group of states invoke the norm consistently, however. This leads us to conclude that the “tipping point” of the life cycle, at which adherence to a new norm starts to spread rapidly, has yet to be reached.     

Traitor or patriot? Andrey Vlasov and the Russian liberation movement 1942–45

Catherine Andreyev, Vlasov and the Russian Liberation Movement: Soviet Reality and Emigre Theories. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987. Pp.251; $34.50.

Sergej Froehlich, General Wlassow: Russen und Deutsche zwischen Hitler und Stalin (revised and edited by Edel von Freier). Koeln: Markus Verlag, 1987. Pp.403; DM.39.80.

Joachim Hoffmann, Die Geschichte der Wlassow‐Armes. Freiburg: Verlag Rombach, 1986. Pp.468; DM32.